Homers and Haters – St Louis Edition
September 3, 2007
by Ben Ellington
This Sunday the Panthers open their season at St. Louis against the Rams. Last year they came to BofA Stadium and we shut them out in a 15-0 yawner. At the time both teams were in the midst of disappointing seasons brought on by injuries.
The Rams finished 2006 next to last against the run and allowed the fifth most points in the league. Instead of adding run stuffers in the free agency market, the decided to focus on outscoring everyone in the league. That can be a good formula for success when you’re playing average NFL defenses, but it tends to fall apart when you find someone who can contain your weapons.
Regardless of how well the Rams finish, they’re going to be one of the more entertaining teams to watch. The original “Greatest Show on Turf” is making a comeback, and don’t be surprised to see the Rams involved in some of the higher scoring contests this year.
Here’s what to look for:
QB
Marc Bulger is one of the most accurate passers in the league. Last year he posted a QB rating of 92.5, which was one of the highest in the NFC. If you let him get in a zone he’ll distribute the ball as well as anyone and he can get it out while under pressure.
Homer says: Sure Bulger’s good, but you have to have an open receiver and time to find him–two things he didn’t have last year when they played the Panthers. Jenkins and Lewis are healthy, and Peppers and the Predator will provide plenty of pressure from the line, and Lucas is healthy now. It’s not going to be an easy start for him.
Hater says: Bulger is the kind of QB who can give us fits. Look for quick outs to Jackson and lots of passes to the Tight End, which we still don’t know how to stop. Bring all the pressure you want, he won’t need a lot of time to get the ball out and unless Davis suddenly figures out how to cover and the CBs decide to line up a little closer than 10 yards off the line we’re going to get a steady diet of 4-5 yard passing plays.
RB
Steven Jackson’s one of the best RBs in the league. Last year he was third in the NFC in rushing yardage and had the second most TDs. He also showed he can catch out of the backfield, bringing in 90 balls for 806 yards and three more TDs. He has the ability to turn a short catch into a long gain.
Homer says: He may be a good back, but our defense has seen plenty of those and has a way of making them look normal. With Kemo clogging the middle he’ll have to find his yards outside, and we have a healthy Morgan patrolling the lanes to keep those gains short. Don’t forget how effective he is against the run, and without him we managed to keep Jackson plenty quiet last year. Running is the last of our concerns.
Hater says: It’s almost unfair to have to play a team with a QB like Bulger and a RB like Jackson. If he can’t get it done inside, they’ll line him up for a screen and let him get his yards that way. He may only get three or four yards at a time that way, but let it happen enough and he’ll break one on you. And for everyone who thinks we play the run well and play Jackson even better, he had a patchwork OL last year and we didn’t exactly keep Atlanta from running all over us in that season opener. Jackson’s also physical. Watch Morgan get his first injury of 2007 trying to stuff him headfirst.
WR/TE
As if Torry Holt (93 receptions) and Isaac Bruce (74 receptions) weren’t enough, the Rams signed Drew Bennett (46 receptions) and Randy McMichael (62 receptions) in the offseason. You wouldn’t think this was an area they needed to upgrade, but they did anyway. This is the foundation of the Greatest Show on Turf, take two.
Homer says: Torry Holt still has what it takes to be a top receiver in the NFL, but he’s not going to get it done with speed any more. He’s cautious inside, but he’s still at the top of his game. And he’s supposedly the explosive one. Isaac Bruce? How many 35 year old receivers still get it done in the NFL? This unit gets by more on name recognition and pinpoint passes than it does talent now. Gamble and Lucas will look better than they are against them. And Bennett? Meet Mr. Marshall, who would start for most teams. McMichael is a good tight end, but didn’t make a ton of grabs in the red zone last year and there’s no reason to think that Davis can’t keep up with him.
Hater says: Two veteran receivers who know how to get open, a QB who can find them, and two more legitimate options plus a running back who catches well? You really think we can shut THAT down? And they may be old, but that only helps at the end of a season, not in the beginning.
OL
This unit is anchored by pro-bowl left tackle Orlando Pace. The line did a good job of making holes last year, even after Pace went down to injury in week 10. There’s not a lot of depth here, but the starting five is definately above average.
Homer says: They may open the holes, but we close them right back. And Pace may be good at protection, but our pressure will come up the middle and from Peppers anyway. They may be a decent unit, but our starters made them look awful last year and you can expect a repeat performance in 2007.
Hater says: It’s not the running game we need to worry about with this unit, it’s protection. Now that Pace is back and everyone’s healthy Bulger will have more than enough time to get the ball out.
DL
The Rams didn’t have a great run defense last year, and addressed that by taking Adam Carriker in the draft. He’ll line up next to La’Roi Glover, who brings a long-time veteran presence to the line. They brought in James Hall from Detroit to take pressure off of Leonard Little, who is one of the NFC’s better defensive ends.
Homer says: Carriker may be good someday, but he’s just a rookie. Look for overpursuit and an easy time for our line to open holes in the running game. Aside from Little there’s not going to be a lot of pressure brought by this unit, which is good news for our passing game.
Hater says: The line isn’t going to scare anyone, but it can get the job done by holding up the play until the LBs get there.
LB
Witherspoon and Tinoisamoa are both undersized for their positions, but have great speed and get to the ball in a hurry. Brandon Chillar is a good strong LB in a system that really doesn’t require one, and Chris Draft is a backup who plays all three spots.
Homer says: They may be fast, but when the play is already three yards past the line of scrimmage by the time they get there you’re going to have success in the running game.
Hater says: I miss Spoon… 
DBs
This is the weakest unit for the Rams. Tye Hill is their best player here and he’s small at 5′10″ (which is probably really about 5′8″). Their other corner will miss the first four games, so they’re starting a backup here in nickelback Ron Bartell. O.J. Atogwe is a good free safety, and Corey Chavous brings a lot of veteran leadership to the defense. Neither will scare anyone though.
Homer says: If our line brings Jake any time at all, he’ll be able to pick apart this defense with ease. Smitty’s going to have a field day here…
Hater says: Yes, Smitty should do well. Too bad we don’t have any other receivers to take advantage of this group.
Prognosis
Homer says: This is going to be a higher scoring game than the one in 06, but the Panthers offense should be able to force their will on the St. Louis defense. Even if the running game doesn’t get started they don’t have anyone outside of Little who can put pressure on the QB so we should be able to pass at will. On defense, our backs are good enough to contain their receivers. If a healthy Morgan and Beason can contain Jackson, you can expect Bulger to start looking one-dimensional as all he’s able to do is hit Jackson in the backfield or McMichael in the flat. Either way, they’re not likely to be shut out again but they’re not going to light it up either.
On offense the Panthers should be able to run well, they did against St. Louis last year and this system is friendlier to our backs’ style. Look for Davidson to mix the run up a lot early on and get the defense on it’s heels. Once that happens you’re going to see a lot of passing, and the boards will be buzzing about the return of Colbert and Jeff King. Although they have a better offense than we do, I think we still outscore them. Panthers 29-20.
Hater says: Our defense doesn’t have the fire it needs to get enough pressure on Bulger to phase him. We might be able to slow Jackson early but you can bet the Rams learned from what we did last year and will be ready. If we shut down the run initially then Bulger will pepper us with short passes to make the LBs back off, and then they’ll balance out their attack and let Jackson run wild. Morgan’s going to be shaking off the rust, Beason’s a rookie, and we have no safeties of note. That means the entire middle of the field is going to be open, which is bad news against anyone. Against an offense as good as the Rams, it’s suicide.
On offense we’ll do ok, but don’t expect to run at will. Carriker will close down the middle and Glover will be in his first game and provide a steady presence. Playing against old people is great in December, but he’s well-rested now and that’s going to make it hard to get those holes open to run. That’s especially true against their linebackers. Playing against undersized people is great in December after they’re all banged up but right now they’ll be flying to the ball and closing the gaps as they open. In the preseason we haven’t been able to run anyway, so you’re going to hear a lot of complaints about same old same old on Monday as we end up with the one-dimensional attack we had in 2006. Smith will get his yards, but we don’t have a reliable number two option and that’s going to end up killing us. We’re probably looking at 20 points, but we’ll give up 27.
I still miss Spoon…
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