Homers and Haters – Houston Edition

by Ben Ellington 

The home opener is upon us. Fresh off a convincing win against Kansas City, the Houston Texans roll into town brimming with confidence. The Panthers have only played them once in franchise history, losing 10-14 in a game played at Houston in 2003. Since then the Panthers had a decent run of things, appearing in both the Superbowl and NFC Championship, while the Texans have yet to make a playoff appearance.

The Texans are trying to shake the “expansion” tag this year, and many feel they finally have the pieces in place to do it. With a young and athletic defense and a new franchise QB in place, they may have finally gotten the mix right in the standard NFL formula of how to build a winner. Currently they’re ranked fourth in the league in defense, although that’s only based off of one week. Last year they were actually in St. Louis Rams territory overall. Unlike St. Louis, they weren’t horrible against the run though, so you couldn’t make them one-dimensional. Their stats against the run and the pass may not be great, but they indicate a good balance on defense that the Rams didn’t and don’t have. They also had to play the Colts and Jags twice, the Eagles, Cowboys, and Patriots. That’s seven games against top ten offensive teams, which doesn’t help in the stats department.

So what did they do in the offseason? Well, they have a ton of good talent on their roster from so many years of picking near the top of the draft. Still not all of it worked out, so they started at QB by getting Matt Schaub from Atlanta. They also grabbed RB Ahman Green from the Packers, and went defensive in the draft by selecting DT Amobi Akoye with the 10th selection of the first round. Their two remaining trouble spots, offensive line and defensive secondary, got minimal help in the offseason. Sometimes that’s enough though, and given how the offensive line was coming on at the end of 2006 there could be some surprises from this team in 2007.

Expect the 2007 edition of the Texans to be a decent improvement on 2006. They won’t take the league by storm, but they have a good balance of talent all over the field. If they execute well they have the talent to sneak up on a lot of teams.

Here’s what we’ll likely see from them this Sunday.

Quarterback
The Texan’s first draft pick ever, David Carr, will be on the Carolina sideline this week as Matt Schaub lines up under center for the Texans. He was once one of the best QB’s in the ACC, second only to Philip Rivers, and was drafted by Atlanta to back up Michael Vick. He was one of the most coveted back-up QB’s in the game, and after three seasons the Falcons traded him to the Texans where he has since earned the starting role. In three preseason outings he completed 24 of 33 passes for 242 yards, and against Kansas City last week maintained that accuracy with a 16/22 performance for 225 yards and a rating of 101.5. He has great vision and makes good decisions with the ball. It’s still early in his career as a starter, but he looks a lot like the real deal.

Homer: “Matt Schaub? Are you kidding? This guy couldn’t win the starting QB spot over a glorified running back in Atlanta. In college he couldn’t buy a completion greater than 10 yards, and he hasn’t shown a lot of arm strength at the pro level either. And with the line in Houston, the only decision he’ll have time to make is whether to throw it out of bounds or take the sack. He may have looked good against KC, but this week he has to play against a real NFL defense.”

Hater: “Matt Schaub is where it starts for this game. He’s the type of quarterback that gives our defense fits. He’s accurate, calm, and a great leader. Picture Marc Bulger without the happy feet. He doesn’t have to throw the long ball to kill us, but he won’t try. He’s great at spreading the ball around. If our corners lay off the receivers, he’ll hit them short. If they press, he’ll burn us long. He’s the guy we should have traded for, and if we had you can bet that he would have been good enough to finally put Jake on the bench. Hurney sucks for not making that happen. By the way, last week the Texans went 9-14 on third down and the Panthers went 4-12. That’s the kind of difference a good QB like Schaub makes for your team.”

Running Backs
The Texans lost their franchise running back last season to a knee injury, and had to go shopping in the free agent market to replace him. They found what they were looking for when they signed Ahman Green, formerly of the Green Bay Packers. In 06 he had 1059 rushing yards, 46 receptions, and 6 TDs. The only downside he has is his age–he turned 30 this year. Still, the Texans feel he’s got at least a year left and intend to make it matter.

Homer: “Ahman who? Fumblestiltskin? I thought he was done, or was that just his career? Seriously, this guy should invent an injury before he steps on the field against us. The last time he faced our defense he went 14-36, and that was with a passing attack to keep our linebackers honest. His style of running just doesn’t mix with how our defense is put together. If you want to know about Green, just look at how much of an effort RB-starved Green Bay made to keep him.”

Hater: “Ahman Green may be old but that only helps you when it’s late in the season. It’s September and those legs are fresh and strong. This is the man who was arguably the best in the league before his injury in 2005. From 2000 to 2004 he gained more total yards from scrimmage than any back in the NFL. That includes a 120 yard game against the Panthers in 2004 and 73 in a limited effort in 2002. The guy’s a bulldozer who makes his own holes, and won’t be brought down on first contact. He’s also a receiving threat and when he’s on his game he’s easily one of the best backs we’ll face this year. Our linebacking speed won’t do us a lot of good against a back who can move the pile like Green does. And speaking of Dan Morgan, expect the entire stadium to get reeeeeeal quiet the first time Green runs into him. That bell’s just waiting to be rung, and Green’s the kind of running back that can do it.”

Wide Receivers/Tight End
Last year Andre Johnson posted career highs in catches (103) and yards (1147). Aside from his performance though, the Texans really didn’t have much else in the passing game (which sounds strangely familiar…). To address this, the Texans drafted Jacoby Jones in the third round. He currently backs up Kevin Walter but has the talent to assume the starting position this season. Their tight end, Owen Daniels, was a nice surprise last season with 34 catches and five TDs. Against the Chiefs, Houston used five different receivers and the TE.

Homer: “I admit, I respect Johnson. He keeps his mouth shut, but that could just be out of embarrassment–he’s afraid people will notice he’s playing for the Texans. He’ll get some yards and make a nice stat box, but that’s all he’ll do. When the field is compressed and there’s not a lot of room to operate, he won’t have time to… oh, wait. Was that another sack?”

Hater: “Andre Johnson is an animal out there, but you would never know it. All he does is go out there and make play after play after play. He was the only receiver in the league to get 100 catches last year. He has size, speed, and the hands to routinely catch balls in double coverage. You think Lucas drew a lot of flags last week? Its’ going to look like confetti out there. And on the other side… well hell, with Johnson they won’t need another side. Too bad for us anyway that Jones is looking like a playmaker himself. He’s a Steve Smith in training, and we better hope Gamble doesn’t give him his signature cushion or he’ll learn a lot Sunday.”

Offensive Line
This has traditionally been the Texans position of weakness. Behind this line David Carr was sacked 42 times in 2006. Texans management has been patient though, and last season there were signs that the line might be coming around. In 2006 Gary Kubiak installed a quick-throw offense and a new blocking scheme that suited his line better, and they began to respond late in the season. They still gave up two sacks to the Chiefs, but for the most part Schaub was able to get rid of the ball effectively. This is probably the best collection of talent the Texans have had in their short history, but look at what they’ve had before you start thinking that is a strength.

Homer: “The Texans have an offensive line? HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA *breath* HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA! Phew, that was a good one! I hope for his sake that Schaubbie learned something about scrambling from Michael Vick in Atlanta-he’s going to have a long day. Their line wouldn’t start for most SEC teams, let alone an NFL one.”

Hater: “Ok, so the Texans look great against us at the skill positions. You can tell me it doesn’t matter because their line sucks. Go ahead, tell me. Ok, feel better? Too bad that just saying it doesn’t make it so. Granted, they aren’t the best unit in the league but they don’t have to be. With Schaub’s quick decision making they’ll be fine in protection, and Green has never needed a big hole. They came together really well at the end of last season, and Kubiak’s blocking scheme is designed to maximize their strengths. I also hear their LT isn’t planning to get injured during the game, so we can cross that off our game strategy list.”

Defensive Line
The defensive front has a lot of talent, and although it’s been criticized, it is stronger in 2007. Former first overall pick DE Mario Williams burst out against the Chiefs with seven tackles and two sacks, and a fumble recovery he ran back for a TD. Next to him is 2005 first round pick (16th) Travis Johnson, a quick and strong run specialist. Their 2007 first round pick (10th), Amobi Okoye is the young but very talented other DT, and Anthony Weaver (35 tackles, 1 sack) rounds out the line at the other DE position.

Homer: “Mario ain’t so super, we can take him out with some nail clippers. And are they seriously going to start a 20 year old Defensive Tackle? Their line has talent, but collectively they have something like eight years of experience. They’ll make a few plays, but don’t expect any consistency there.”

Hater: “This is where I start getting nervous. Mario Williams has all the tools to become dominant in the NFL, and showed us he’s ready last week with two sacks. Gross is going to have his hands full, Williams is bigger, stronger, and faster than he is. On the other end is the ex-Raven Anthony Weaver, who had 35 tackles last year, and the middle is clogged by two first round picks. With Hartwig and Kalil already showing that strength can get through our line, I’m looking for Jake to develop a severe case of happy feet.”

Linebackers
Arguably the Texan’s best unit, the linebackers are led by defensive rookie of the year DeMeco Ryans, who was amazing against the run in 2006. He is the vocal leader of the Houston defense. Lining up next to him are Morton Greenwood (109 tackles) at the Weak side and former Raider and Saint Danny Clark at the Strong side. This unit doesn’t have a lot of depth, but the starters are very talented.

Homer: “Hey DeMeco, see the play? See it going left? Go get it! Get it! Oops, wait, the running back went right. Dang, dang, dang… All day long baby, welcome to the Davidson offense.”

Hater: “The Linebackers make me sick. I was SCREAMING at the Panthers to draft Ryans last year, and instead we get another running back and Na’il Diggs. Great. Morgan goes down, our season’s over, and Williams doesn’t show much more than a nice smile. In the meantime Ryans is getting DROY honors. The guy’s a stud, and a premier run-stuffing one. He’s great in coverage too. And the idea that Foster and Williams can outrun the LBs here is just silly, they do a great job at containment and are almost designed to stop the run. And with Foster and Williams running the ball, look for some nice turnover stats to be padded, courtesy of this group.”

Defensive Backs
Along with the Offensive Line, this was the other area of concern for the Texans in 2006. Unlike the Offensive Line though, there wasn’t a glimmer of hope at the end of the year. Dunta Robinson is the top corner, and on the other side is Demarcus Faggins. They’re decent in coverage but didn’t make too many interceptions in 2006, combining for only three. C.C. Brown (76 tackles) is back as the free safety and Jason Simmons is at the strong safety position after the starter, Glenn Earl, went out for the season with a foot injury.

Homer: “This is rich. Their starters would struggle to be backups on most teams. At least the Rams had a legitimate starter in Tye Hill-the Texans can’t even say that. This is the game where every receiver we have looks like an all-pro. Smith is reportedly trying to get psyched by imagining up a transgression, but keeps bursting out in laughter just thinking about them trying to cover him. It’s just not fair…”

Hater: “You know, I would feel pretty good about the DBs if I thought Jake would have time to exploit them. Too bad the Texans aren’t going to let that happen.”

Prognosis

Homer: “I’m trying, but I just can’t seem to get worried about this team. On offense their lack of experience will make them look like jokes trying to contain Foster and Williams. I can’t see them getting any pressure of note on Jake, and even if they do it’s not like the secondary can cover our receivers. Smith is almost guaranteed a long ball on Sunday. The Texans may have a nice statistical balance on defense, but as far as I’m concerned it just means both our running game AND our passing game will do well.

And defensively? Come on, you want me to be afraid of MATT SCHAUB? How scary can he be on his back anyway? We made one of the best passing attacks in the league look less than ordinary last week, and you think I should be concerned about Matt Schaub? This is a joke, right? See, I know it’s a joke because you’re also talking about Ahman Green running THROUGH our DL. Give me a break.

Panthers in a yawner, 30-10.”

Hater: “If there was ever a textbook definition for the term ‘trap game’, this is it. If the Panthers were a consistent team I might feel better, but they’re not. They always play down to the level of their competition, and seem to be allergic to home openers. The Texans are talented and well coached, and good enough that they beat Indianapolis and swept the Jaguars last year.

The Texans offensive line has gelled and is doing a pretty good job executing Kubiak’s blocking schemes. Sure they’ll give up a few sacks, but the Texans can move the ball. Schaub is willing to take more risks than Carr was, and makes better decisions. Andre Johnson is a game breaking WR and finally has a QB who has the patience to let the play develop before forcing the ball in or throwing out of bounds. The line won’t open too many big holes, so they have a runner who doesn’t need them. They won’t put up 40, but they won’t need to either.

This week the Panthers will finally go up against a solid defense, and it’s a young and fast one full of playmakers. Yes, the secondary is suspect but the pass rush is there. They got to Damon Huard three times last week and I believe they also intercepted him twice. With their rush the LBs won’t need to drop into coverage as much, so they can focus on the run. Since Ryans has the speed to keep up with Foster and Williams that spread stuff isn’t going to produce like it did last week.

So this is the game where the Panthers get surprised. Expect the Texans to throw a blanket over Smith and hope their rush can create enough pressure to prevent Jake from getting into a rhythm. By the end of the game he’ll be seriously rattled, enough so that it will come as no surprise to anyone that his first interception of the season will be on what looks to be the Panthers final go-ahead drive. The game will end, the boards will erupt, and the Texans will have delivered a serious wake-up call to John Fox.

Texans, 17-13. Yeah, it sucks to lose our first game at home but at least we should be used to it by now.”