Homers and Haters – Atlanta Edition
September 19, 2007
By Ben Ellington
This week the Panthers head to Atlanta, where they hope to rebound from their home loss to the Houston Texans. In the Falcons, they have an opponent with a lot of familiarity, but which is at the same time a very different team from the one they split with in 2007.
A new coaching staff always brings change to a football team, but the changes in Atlanta go a little above and beyond anyone’s expectations. Start with the loss of both of their primary backup QBs, their starting DE, a starting LB, and half of their receiving corps, and you have what could be called a major shake-up. Then add the coaching change and throw in the Michael Vick circus, and you have the Atlanta off-season.
Bobby Petrino has minimal NFL experience but is well regarded as a creative offensive genious. He’ll be tasked with coaxing a successful performance out of free agent QB Joey Harrington. Among his other challenges will be shaping up a defense that could charitably be called inconsistent in 2006. If he succeeds at both the Falcons could contend for the playoffs. If he fails at either, the Falcons will strong contenders in the Brian Brohm sweepstakes.
Here is what you can expect from the 2007 edition of the Atlanta Falcons.
Quarterback
Now that Vick is gone, the focus is on Joey Harrington, formerly of Detroit and Miami. The third overall pick in 2001, Harrington has been cursed with poor coaching, mediocre protection and just plain bad teams. This is probably Harrington’s last chance to be viewed as a legitimate NFL starter. His lifetime QB rating is 68, although many feel he still has potential to be much better. Through the first two games in 2007 he has raised it to 74.1, despite being sacked 13 times.
Homer: “Joey Harrington hasn’t thrown a touchdown pass since the republicans controlled congress. He’s thrown several interceptions though, so it’s not like he hasn’t made a contribution. Expect Lucas and Gamble to both take advantage Sunday, and look for Jooo-eeeey to get booed by the home crowd no later than the third posession.”
Hater: “Joey Harrington is an accurate passer who’s willing to stand in the pocket and take a hit. He’s not getting the protection he needs right now, but he’s more than capable of making the quick short pass. As Matt Schaub showed last week, that’s the formula for killing the Panther’s defense. He won’t kill you with the long ball, but if he has any game film at all he knows he won’t need to.
Running Backs
It’s interesting to see the effect that the absence of Vick has on the running game. Age is a factor too, as Warrick Dunn is 32 and coming off back surgery this offseason. So far he’s only averaged 3.0 yards per carry, down from 4.0 in 2006. Backing him up is second year pro Jerious Norwood, a quick back who averaged 6.4 yards per carry last season but so far is averaging 4.5 this year. At the fullback spot is one of the biggest acquisitions the Falcons made in the offseason, ex-Raven Ovie Mughelli. Mughelli is a powerful blocker who fits Petrino’s offensive scheme well, and is not expected to carry the ball much.
Homer: “Well, the foul clowns have lost their best running back in Vick, so they’re stuck with Done and Injurious. Neither fit Petrino’s scheme and it shows. Both are capable runners but require these things called holes to run through. Based on the season to date, holes aren’t a part of Petrino’s offense. Still, either can be dangerous catching passes out of the backfield, but as long as Harrington is the QB we won’t need to worry about that.”
Hater: “Last year the same group of backs ran all over this defensive line on opening day. This is the group that also ran through Dan Morgan and knocked him out for the season. The Falcons have started against two of the better defenses in the league. Their running game will get a lot better, and as the line gets more accustomed to Petrino’s schemes those holes will show up. Look for Mughelli to nuetralize our linebackers, and if the holes start opening against what has been an ineffective Panthers defensive front, the Falcons could have a big day on the ground.”
Wide Receiver/Tight End
The Receivers in Atlanta for the most part never really clicked with Vick. He connected with only 52.6 percent of his passes in 2006, and with Harrington at they helm they’re already bringing in a much more respectable 67.3 percent. As a group, that’s good for seventh in the league. The Falcons signed New Orleans’ Joe Horn (3 catches, 48 yards) in the offseason to be their new number one receiver. On the other side is Roddy White (8 catches, 110 yards), who has deep threat speed but lacks reliability. Backing them up are former number one receiver Michael Jenkins (3, 28), Adam Jennings, and third round draft choice Laurent Robinson (3, 32). The Tight End is all-pro Alge Crumpler (7 catches, 93 yards) and they use a number of two tight end sets with Dwayne Blakely (2, 18).
Homer: “Joe Horn could be good, but his new job as spokesman for the AARP is getting in the way of his football commitment this season. White could be good too, but you have to catch the ball more than you drop it to be considered as such. He had seven drops last year and didn’t even catch half the passes thrown to him. Sure, it was Vick throwing, but that’s pretty bad. The only member of this group who can hurt the Panthers is Alge Crumpler, and for the reason why he won’t please refer to the Quarterback section.”
Hater: “Apparently the Falcons have had receivers all along, they just never had a good passing game when Vick was under center. Joe Horn is feeling especially good about this game because he’s heard that the Panthers aren’t bothering to cover their opponents’ number one receiver this year. He’s a very solid and experienced veteran who’s an ideal fit for the short passing game, while Roddy White is a legitimate deep threat. The biggest day will be reserved for Alge Crumpler. Didn’t Thomas Davis play safety in college? Why on earth does he have so much trouble in coverage then? Bank on this–Crumpler has seen Owen Daniel’s performance against Davis, and can’t wait for Sunday.”
Offensive Line
This is a solid unit, with four of the five starters returning. Traditionally Atlanta has relied on quick and athletic linemen to run Jim Mora’s zone blocking scheme, but Petrino has installed a new scheme that’s more complex and employs a heads-up, physical style. Left tackle Wayne Gandy and right tackle Todd Weiner are average, but center Todd McClure and right guard Kynan Forney are fairly good linemen. Joining the line this year is second round draft choice Justin Blalick, who is a larger more physical type of blocker who fits the type of scheme that Petrino wants to run.
Homer: “Ok, let me get this straight. You inherit a zone blocking line that has been partially responsible for one of the best rushing attacks in the league for several years. Said line has been put together with quick and athletic linemen, and they know their jobs well. Rather than build on that, you install a power scheme that requires big, bruising type of player. Who said Petrino was a genuis again? No wonder they can’t run any more.”
Hater: “Didn’t the Texans have a line that was suspect? Our defensive front sure has a way of making the mediocre look good this year. I expect Jenkins and Kemo to dominate for the first two series. Then, having established that they COULD be the better unit if they wanted to, they’ll pull their standard disappearing act for the rest of the game. By the second quarter Harrington will enjoy enough time in the pocket to do his best Joe Montana imitation. We could do a lot of damage against this unit, but recent history suggests we won’t unless they manage to suffer a couple of injuries.”
Defensive Line
The heart of this unit is made up of two seasoned veterans–end John Abraham (4 tackles, 1 sack) and tackles Grady Jackson (6 tackles, 1 sack) and third year man Jonathan Babineaux (5 tackles, 2 sacks). First round pick Jamaal Anderson (3 tackles) makes up the fourth member of the line. This is a talented unit, but in the past has been hurt with injury. When healthy this is a strength of the Atlanta defense.
Homer: “John Abraham figures to make a huge contribution in the four games for which he’ll be healthy this year. He’s already had two, so look for him to go down in the first quarter as a way of pacing himself for the rest of the season. And is it just me or does Grady look like Jackson the Hut? If you cut him he’ll bleed gravy. He’s the only player in the NFL who rides a little scooter when he goes shopping at the Wal-Mart. Jonathan Babineaux is the dog killer who didn’t end up in jail, and Anderson looks lost so far. There’s nothing to fear here.”
Hater: “The last time the Panthers faced a healthy John Abraham he spent more time in their backfield than Grady Jackson does in front of the refrigerator. And given that all Jackson does is plug up the middle, that size is put to good use. Anderson is an all-pro in training and Babineaux is a high-motor defensive tackle who’s looking forward to running through the Hartwig-Mathis revolving door. The Falcons defensive line has given us fits in the past when they’re healthy, and they’re healthy now.”
Linebackers
Over the last several years the linebacker group has generally been considered average at best. In the middle Atlanta starts ten year veteran Keith Brooking (15 tackles), with Demorrio Williams (6 tackles) on the strong side and Michael Boley (13 tackles) on the weak.
Homer: “The Falcons don’t have linebackers, those are special teamers who forgot to run off the field.”
Hater: “Keith Brooking is a pro-bowl linebacker who brings all kinds of leadership to the defense. Although none of the linebackers is a big run-stuffer, all of them are fast and can fly to the ball. If the Falcons can keep our offensive linemen off of the LBs, then the Panther’s running game will go nowhere. At least we won’t have to suffer through William’s and Foster fumbling everywhere.”
Defensive Backs
The Falcons have drafted for speed here, beginning with all-pro DeAngelo Hall (7 tackles, 1 INT) at cornerback. Joining him on the right side will be ex-Houston cornerback Lewis Sanders (9 tackles), who will be pushed by second round draft pick Chris Houston (2 tackles). At the safety position they line up former all-pro strong safety Lawyer Malloy (9 tackles), and former cornerback Jimmy Williams (9 tackles) at the free safety position
Homer: “Do you ever wonder what would happen if DeAngelo Hall’s play lived up to his mouth? It moves way too much for a guy who was burned as much as he was last year. Lawyer Milloy is good but he’s also 33 and with the lack of depth the Falcons has here he better not get tired. If you really want an idea of the talent pool here, just consider that they start a cast-off from the Houston Texans, a team that has never been known for their secondary.”
Hater: “This is another speed unit, and it’s capable of flying to the QB or sticking to the receivers. That’s especially effective against the Panthers because all a defense needs against them is one player fast enough to cover Smith. Atlanta loves to bring a safety up to pressure the QB, and with the lack of a second receiver the Panthers are not going to be able to counter that effectively. Expect Hall and Williams to blanket Smith all day, while Colbert and Carter make Lewis Sanders look more like Deion.”
Prognosis
Homer: “The forecast in Atlanta is pain, pain, and more pain. The Falcons and Panthers just don’t like each other, and in this matchup the Panthers clearly have an edge in talent. The receivers aren’t good enough to get open, and Harrington’s going to end up padding the DLine’s sack stats. Expect a lot of people to think that the Panthers D is getting well as a result of this game.
Their defensive line has never been great against the run, and this year the linebackers inexplicably got worse. Foster and Williams will both have big days, with 200 yards in easy reach. Smith loves it when Hall covers him, and should have another big day.
Bottom line, the Falcons were already a team in decline before their disaster of an offseason. This week the Panthers offense will show well while Harrington will have to look to week four for his first TD pass. Panthers 35-9.”
Hater: “The Panthers will probably go into Atlanta with a lot of confidence, maybe even more than they had against Houston. For the second week in a row that will burn them. In the NFL any team can beat any other on any given Sunday, and the Falcons have a lot to play for. They’re the kind of team that plays to the weaknesses on the Panthers–fast on defense and patient on offense. They also have a lot of pride and resentment from last season to work out on the field.
Look for the Falcons to play a boring, deliberate ball control game that may not reach the end zone often, but will get there enough to give the team a chance to win. On defense, expect the Falcons to follow the formula for beating the Panthers. They’ll shut down the run and blanket Steve Smith, and make our second receivers beat them. It won’t be pretty, and the Henning comparisons will begin as a result.
Falcons 17, Panthers 10
