Carolina Huddle

by Ben Ellington

Tampa Bay comes to Charlotte this Sunday in a match of the two division leaders. The Panthers own a 8-5 overall record against the Bucs, and have won seven of the last eight in the series including a sweep in 2006.

The 2006 Bucs had the second most punts in the league, three players made triple digits in tackles, and the offense managed just 237 first downs. In short, their offense was terrible and it showed in their record. A lot of Tampa’s problems could be attributed to injuries, but they weren’t content to just get healthy. The Bucs took decisive action in the offseason. They overhauled some key positions in free agency and drafted for defense, and a lot of people in South Florida believe they’ve made the necessary effort to get back to the playoffs.

As their 2-1 record suggests, these Bucs are not the same team the Panthers swept in 2006. Last year’s starting quarterback is now fourth on the depth chart, and they have all new starters on the left side of the offensive line. Tampa’s defense is playing well, and they have a very good mix of veteran experience and youthful energy.

Quarterback
Jeff Garcia is the Buc’s starting QB this season, and has performed well in the role. After a season where he had 1309 yards, 10 TD’s, and only two interceptions, Garcia has started in Tampa right about where he left off in Philadelphia. Through three games he’s maintained a 105.6 rating by throwing for 595 yards and two touchdowns. He has yet to turn the ball over. Backing up Garcia are Luke McCown and Bruce Gradkowski.

Homer Says: “Jeff Garcia is 37 years old and is playing for his fifth team in the past five years. Kind of makes you wonder how comfortable his teammates are in the locker room with him, huh? Just say that no one is in a hurry to hit the showers and leave it at that, ok? On the field, he’s playing his own version of the prevent offense, “bend them (over) but don’t break them.” How can a guy maintain a 100+ rating with almost 200 yards per game for three games and only score two touchdowns? At least he still has his spleen, and if he wants to keep it he’ll be getting rid of the ball in a hurry. He’ll pad his stats between the 30 yard lines, but once the field gets short and the middle closes don’t look for too much from him.”

Hater Says: “Last year Garcia put up 312 yards and three TDs on us, and that was back when our defensive line believed in pressuring the QB. Garcia is a mobile west coast offense specialist, who excels at getting the ball out quickly and accurately. He doesn’t need a lot of time because he’s never going to try and beat you long–he’s only averaging 9.2 yards per catch. Instead, he’ll carve an opponent up in the short passing game. Unfortunately, that’s exactly where the Panthers are vulnerable. We’ve folded before effective west coast offenses before, and now with our gaping holes in the secondary coverage we’re pretty ripe for the picking. We gave up 361 yards to Joey-freaking-Harrington, for crying out loud! Unless our safeties and linebackers start playing like they know how to defend the pass, we’re in for a very long afternoon.”

Running Backs
Cadillac Williams has yet to return to the explosiveness exhibited in his rookie season, but remains the primary running option in Tampa Bay. Williams has rushed for 167 yards so far, and at the same 3.5 yards per carry he averaged in 2006. However, while the Caddy found the endzone only once last season he’s already scored three touchdowns in 2007. So far his biggest problem in 2007 has been turnovers, as Williams has lost two fumbles so far. The rest of the lineup remains unchanged, with Michael Pittman and Earnest Graham lining up behind him. Fullback B.J. Askew is known more for his special teams play than carrying the ball.

Homer Says: “Tampa’s running game won’t scare anyone. They’ve played some pretty soft run defenses in Seattle (16th), New Orleans (19th) and St. Louis (28th), and Williams has still only managed to eke out a miserable 3.5 yards per carry. It’s bad enough that after only three games his coach has had to field questions about changing to a running back by committee system. Fortunately for the Buc’s opponents, Chuckie’s decided to stay with Williams as the starter. As long as you can keep Williams from lulling you to sleep, you can shut down Pittman and Graham pretty easily.”

Hater Says: “Yards per carry statistics don’t matter a lot when your quarterback is good enough to get you in third and short consistently. Williams is a speed back who hits the hole quickly and with enough pop to get a few yards when they’re needed. He may have had health problems in his short career, but Caddilac is healthy now and has already scored three touchdowns. Earnest Graham has carried 13 times for 88 yards and two TD’s, and Pittman’s gone 15 for 80. That means as a unit the Bucs have averaged 4.4 ypc, which is good enough for 13th in the league. Or if you prefer, a much better average than the Texans, Rams, or Falcons have managed.”

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
The receivers in Tampa Bay are a talented unit with several question marks. Their primary receiver, Joey Galloway, is 35 and has a history of injuries. Ike Hilliard and Michael Clayton both look like their best years are behind them (to be fair, Clayton is still young but he’s never looked the same since a strong rookie year). Second-year-man Maurice Stovall and return man Mark Jones round out this unit, but neither have caught a pass in 2007. At tight end, Alex Smith looks to be rebounding from a disappointing sophomore season with seven receptions for 95 yards, a 13.6 yard per catch average.

Homer Says: “What’s to worry about here? David Boston was supposed to be a part of this unit, but after looking at the age and talent level of both his opposite receiver and Quarterback, he decided to drink himself off the team instead. Joey Galloway passed his prime long before he even joined the Bucs in 2004, and although he’ll get a ball or two he doesn’t make plays like he used to. Ike Hilliard has been having ankle problems all season and Clayton has caught a whopping two passes in three games. As a matter of fact, the ENTIRE Bucs receiving corps have only caught 23 balls so far this year. The only possible bright spot here is the Tight End, who has pulled in seven balls per … wait, that’s for all three games? Never mind.”

Hater Says: “The Bucs are a slow and steady team with a balanced and deliberate offense. The Wide Receivers won’t kill you with speed, but they’re very experienced and still know how to get the job done. 61% of their catches go for first downs, and at tight end 71% of Alex Smith’s grabs move the chains. When you consider how soft Carolina’s middle is, and look at Thomas Davis’ coverage skills, this group almost guarantees at least one very long sustained drive on Sunday.”

Offensive Line
This unit was a real weakness for Tampa Bay in 2006, particularly on the left side. That’s been overhauled with good results in 2007. The Bucs signed Luke Petitgout away from the Giants to anchor the left tackle slot, and drafted Arron Sears in the second round to play the left guard. Center John Wade, right guard Davin Joseph, and right tackle Jeremy Trueblood return from a solid 2006 campaign. So far they’ve been much more effective than last year’s unit, surrendering only four sacks after giving up 49 last year.

Homer Says: “This line better be prepared come Sunday. The Panthers and Bucs don’t like each other and there’s nothing like a good old fashioned rivalry to wake up a slumbering defense. The last time the Bucs visited Bank of America Stadium, Julius Peppers had three sacks and the Bucs could only manage 69 yards on the ground. In Tampa Bay they gained only 64 yards and Peppers had another sack while Chris Simms lost his spleen. The Carolina defense has been deadly against the Bucs, and you can expect their line to just be outmatched and overwhelmed this week.”

Hater Says: “No one in Tampa is looking for their line to provide anything more than solid protection and the occasional hole. The linemen are athletic and adept at giving Garcia more time than he needs to get rid of the ball. Last year was last year, and none of the Panthers are even playing at same level they limped through 2006 with anyway. Tampa Bay has looked at the game film from Atlanta, and now know that all you have to do is stand in front of Peppers and Rucker to keep them from getting to the QB, and as long as you don’t run straight at Kemo you can take advantage of his lack of lateral quickness and spring into the secondary. This group is going to give Garcia as long as he needs to find the open man. A defensive front who could only manage one sack against a team that was giving up six and a half per game certainly isn’t going to challenge Tampa’s group.”

Defensive Line
This has traditionally been a strength of the Buccaneers, and after a disappointing 2006 there has been a major change here. The Bucs have let ends Simeon Rice and Dewayne White go while spending the No. 4 pick in the draft on Gaines Adams (5 tackles), a stud defensive end out of Clemson. Adams currently backs up free agent Kevin Carter (12 tackles, .5 sacks and one forced fumble) at the right defensive end. Greg Spires (13 tackles, 1 sack) lines up at the left defensive end, while Chris Hovan (5 tackles) and Jovan Haye (8 tackles, 1 sack) return at the defensive tackle spots. Tampa Bay uses a rotation on the interior with Greg Peterson (7 tackles, .5 sacks) and Ryan Sims to keep the line fresh.

Homer Says: “Tampa Bay’s defense is allowing 125 rushing yards per game against some of the worst running teams in the league in Seattle (17th), St. Louis (21st), and New Orleans (27th). The Panthers are putting up 142 yards per game on the ground, and doing it without big stat-padding runs. Look for the Cats to run right at the Bucs and keep their linebackers honest. Last year Foster was running behind a makeshift line and still averaged almost four yards per carry. This time he has Bridges and Hartwig opening the interior holes, and should have a big day.”

Hater Says: “In protection, the Panthers have allowed six sacks already. On defense the Bucs have managed five, so you can count on at least a couple of sacks and tons of hurries when the two teams meet. Since Carr is going to play, you can count on having several drives killed that way. They have plenty of youth and depth here and will be fresh enough in the fourth quarter to shut down our running game. And just like the offensive line, the defense has the game film from Atlanta and you can bet that they’ve shown the Abraham highlight reel to their DEs time and time again. The book is out on how to get through our line, and Tampa’s read it.”

Linebackers
The linebackers are another unit where the Buccaneers have replaced aging stars with young talent. Shelton Quarles is gone after 10 years in the middle, which is manned by third-year-pro Barrett Ruud (35 tackles, 2 forced fumbles, one Int.). Tampa also signed Pro Bowler Cato June (14 tackles, one Int.) from the Colts, placing him on the strong side. 34-year-old Derrick Brooks (25 tackles, 2 forced fumbles) returns on the weak side.

Homer Says: “The Tampa LBs are supposedly decent in coverage, but since their line is allowing so many rushing yards they will have to play up so we won’t get to see that. This group will have their hands full trying to keep Foster under five yards per carry, which is giving Jeff King reasons to plan for a big game. We should be able to match up against them well, particularly if the zone blocking scheme can open holes for the running game.”

Hater Says: “This group has more interceptions than the defensive backs do. David Carr is not going to find easy lanes in the two seconds he allows himself every play before throwing it out of bounds or running backwards and crumbling into a fetal position. They’re disciplined and stay in their areas. They’re also ball hawks, adept at causing fumbles. That doesn’t bode well for either Williams or Foster, both of whom are known to cough it up occasionally. If we’re in third and long against these guys then go ahead and get Baker warmed up.”

Defensive Backs
Jermaine Phillips (24 tackles, one sack, one Int.) returns at the strong safety position, and is joined by fourth round pick Tanard Jackson (15 tackles), who beat out last year’s starter Will Allen (3 tackles) at the free safety position. Ronde Barber (13 tackles, 1 forced fumble) returns at one corner, and is re-joined on the other side by Brian Kelly (5 tackles).

Homer Says: “The Bucs have a good secondary that gets tons of opportunities to make plays because they find the ball back there so often. When your defensive backs are all team leaders in tackles doesn’t that indicate that the ball is getting past the line a little too often? Barber is old and has been abused by Smith in the past, and Brian Kelly isn’t exactly a shutdown corner. This group may not give up too many big plays, but they won’t be able to stop us from executing our game plan.”

Hater Says: “The Bucs defense is already ninth in the league in pass defense, in large part because of their DBs. Like the linebackers, they’re talented, disciplined and have completely bought in to Kiffin’s system. There’s no way Carr will go deep on them, his best bet is to hit some underneath routes and hope a receiver can break one. When we get to the red zone though, don’t look for those routes to appear. The Bucs have allowed only two touchdowns through the air this year, in large part because of this unit.”

Prognosis
Homer Says: “The way the NFC South works is simple. The Bucs beat the Falcons, the Falcons beat the Panthers, and the Panthers beat the Bucs. So now they’re up, and down they’re going to go. The Panthers always psyched for Tampa Bay and always give them a great game. A lot of naysayers will point out that so far this year, the talent’s been there but hasn’t been tapped. This will change on Sunday.

Look for Peppers to finally get on track, and overwhelm the right side of their line. When that happens the rest of the defensive line will feed off of it and bring their A game. Jenkins is already playing lights-out, and with McClover likely to finally play Panthers front four will deliver the defensive pressure Panther fans have been waiting for. Our corners have always played the Buccaneer receivers well, and with the troubles the Bucs have had running the ball on such stalwart defenses as St. Louis and New Orleans, don’t expect them to do anything on the ground. Once their offense becomes one-dimensional, it’s over.

David Carr is not a drop-off from Delhomme either. Given time he’s not only more than capable of leading the offense, he also spreads the ball around better than Jake does and his release is faster. With the strength that our running game has shown this year, Carr should have plenty of time to find a receiver and a soft secondary to exploit. The Panthers should have a really balanced attack Sunday, and will shut down the Bucs easily.”

Panthers 20, Bucs 9

Hater Says: “What sets the Bucs apart from the teams the Panthers have beaten is that they’ve actually won a game in 2007. Like the Panthers, they’ve gotten healthy and brought in some needed youth on their defense. Unlike the Panthers, they’re actually playing defense this year. While the Panthers have matched their record, they’ve given up 67 points while the Bucs have only surrendered 37. This team is still built on defense and it shows.

The good news is that the Panthers have scored more than Tampa this year. Through three games the Cats have put up a whopping two more TDs than the Bucs. Of course, that was also with their first string quarterback, who won’t be available this week. Carr is going to have to make his debut against against an agressive defense that’s gotten strong results this season. Panther fans will finally get a chance to see him play, unfortunately it will look like he’s back in Houston, circa 2002.

When the Bucs have the ball they move it. Jeff Garcia is the perfect fit for John Gruden’s offense, and his short passing game makes up for any deficiencies in the running attack. The Panthers have already shown that they can be exploited by the short passing game, and that’s Garcia’s specialty. Look for the Panther linebackers to get worn out chasing down passes through the first three quarters. Then, with the platoon of backs they have, Tampa Bay will be able to keep the pressure on in the fourth quarter with fresh legs in their running game.

This is a tough enough contest when the Panther’s defense is playing well. Given that they’re not, it looks to be a long afternoon in Carolina.

Bucs 24, Panthers 13