Carolina Huddle

We all know that the offseason sucks. Aside from third-tier free agent news, not a lot happens in May (unless you’re in New Orleans I guess). The draft is a month old, training camp isn’t until July, and aside from the occasional interview not a lot is going on that’s worth discussing. That means it’s a great time to talk up stuff that will get us excited about next year. Everyone’s a homer in May, right? It’s easy to dream about going 16-0, no matter who your team is (except the Falcons of course).

If it’s so easy for us to do, how about our opponents? What do we know about them, and what they’ve done to improve? I’m not going to go into great depth here, but this article will take a quick look at who we’re facing in 2008. It does so from a May perspective, meaning that what you get probably won’t be close to what we see now. Still, it may be worthwhile to some to see how the teams will change.

So here’s my analysis, John Fox style. By that I mean looking at the season as four quarters, with a goal of going 3-1 or 4-0 in each one. This week’s installment will begin with quarter one.

Week One, at the San Diego Chargers
2007 record: 11-5, first in the AFC West
2007 offensive rank: 20 (7th in rushing, 26th in passing, and 5th in scoring)
2007 defensive rank: 14 (16th against the run, 14th against the pass, and 5th in points allowed)

The Chargers open 2008 thinking about a deep playoff run, and their team and fans will be disappointed with anything less. Simply put, the Chargers have no holes in their starting lineup. Their starting 22 is arguably the best in football, any problems they have are with age and depth. Since we’re talking about their season opener, neither should be an issue for them in this game.

On offense Philip Rivers and Ladanian Tomlinson will be healthy and ready to break down defenses either in the air or on the ground. There isn’t any proven depth behind Tomlinson, but at this time of year who cares? The big question marks for them on offense will come on the offensive line. Specifically, will the right side be able to open good holes for the running game, and how well will their left tackle fare in protection against quicker defensive ends?

On defense, Jamal Williams returns to plug up the middle and Shawn Merriman will be there to provide plenty of pressure. Although they lack depth, their ends are solid and so are their cornerbacks and linebackers. That said, the Chargers have a soft spot in the middle that may be exploited if Jake gets enough time. All in all though, they’re a pretty solid if not spectacular unit that doesn’t dominate against passing or rushing, but still keeps the scoring to a minimum.

So this looks like a pretty tough season opener. A bright spot here is that over the past four years the Chargers are 3-3 at home in September, and we’re getting them early. In the last four years the Panthers are 4-2 on the road in September. Under Norv Turner the only team that’s ever started fast was the 1996 Redskins. Ladanian Tomlinson is a notoriously slow starter. So there’s an argument that this Chargers team is likely to be like the ones in the past in that you can expect them to start slow but finish strong. If that trend holds true, there’s some hope here for an opening day Panthers win. Still, maybe it’s best to save your gambling dollars for a different game…

- Carolina leads the all-time series with the Chargers at 2-1.

Week Two, home versus the Chicago Bears
2007 record: 7-9, fourth in the NFC North
2007 offensive rank: 27 (30th in rushing, 15th in passing, and 18th scoring)
2007 defensive rank: 28 (24th against the run, 27th against the pass, and 16th in points allowed)

Most Carolina fans have learned to approach home openers with a cautious optimism. The Panthers are not known for success in those games; they’ve compiled a historical 4-9 record in home openers, including a 1-4 mark over the past five years. Chicago will be a good opportunity for win number five though, especially early in the season.

The Bears had a lot of problems in 2007. Their offensive line struggled to open holes in the running game (3.1 yards per carry), and at the same time gave up 43 sacks. They weren’t terrible on offense - certainly they were better than the Panthers - but they didn’t do a lot to address their biggest problems until the draft. They drafted Chris Williams presumably to anchor one side of the offensive line (2007 starter Fred Miller was cut), but they didn’t grab any of the better guards in Free Agency. Depending on rookies and aging veterans who didn’t do that great a job to begin with is not the way to regain any sort of form in the running game. They also didn’t try to improve at the QB position, which was a big surprise in many circles. At Wide Receiver they drafted a couple of decent prospects and signed a couple of journeymen, but this was after letting both 2007 starters go. It’s almost as if they think they don’t need a good offense to win.

The good news for Bears fans is that they’ve done a decent job of reloading on defense. Urlacher returns, of course, and Lance Briggs was brought back in a move that means the Bears still lay claim to the best Linebacking corps in the NFL. Their line is still a little thin across the middle, and they could use more depth at Safety. Still, all the pieces are still there for a dominant defensive unit. All save one–Ron Rivera. When Rivera was there, the Bears defense adjusted more to their opponents and masked injuries a lot better. The great defense of 2006 got new position coaches everywhere and a new coordinator for 2007, and responded by going from fifth overall to 28th. Theres a big question concerning which unit shows up in 2008.

This could be a win, and most teams would mark it down as a should. The Panthers will be healthy and the Bears defense still doesn’t have an answer to Steve Smith. The matchups favor the Panthers in a lot of places–the Panthers will want to run and they have a playmaker at the receiver position. They can completely smother the Bears receivers and turn them one-dimensional on offense. They’re at home. That says it all though, given their history they would be more likely to win this one if it was a road game.

- The all-time series record with Chicago is tied at 2-2.

Week Three, at the Minnesota Vikings
2007 record: 8-8, second in the NFC North
2007 offensive rank: 13 (1st in rushing, 28th in passing, and 15th in scoring)
2007 defensive rank: 20 (1st against the run, 32nd against the pass, and 12th in points allowed)

The 2007 Vikings would have dominated in the early days of football, back before you could throw the ball. They had the best rushing attack in football and were also the best at keeping the opponents from running. Unfortunately for them, they couldn’t throw the ball and they couldn’t keep teams from throwing all over them. Until Adrian Peterson came on, they looked bound for the division cellar. Even with his strong running, they still couldn’t keep other teams out of the end zone enough to compile a winning record.

On offense the problems start with the Quarterback. Tarvaris Jackson looked brutal at times last year, and they sorely need a little more accuracy than he can provide. They drafted John David Booty because he has a neat name, and they also signed Gus Frerotte, but this position will probably still be pretty uncertain this early in the season. Of course, the running of Adrian Petersen makes a lot of that uncertainty irrelevant. If the Panthers can contain him, then they’ll look dominant on defense. If they can’t, they’ll look like the dominated. The Viking’s left tackle has problems with speed rushers, so that’s a point in the Panther’s favor assuming Peppers is having a good year.

The 2007 Viking defense was powerful against the run, or maybe it was just so easy to pass against them that teams figured out that they didn’t need to run to be successful. Stats can be funny things that way. If Pat Williams has another good year left in him (he’s 35), the Vikes defense should once more be stout against the run. They sorely needed a pass rush, so they traded for a one man gang there in Jared Allen. Between Allen and Ray Edwards’ return (he was suspended late in the 2007 season for steroids), they should be able to apply significantly more pressure to opposing quarterbacks in 2008. In the secondary, the cornerbacks and free safety were all awful in 2007, but that could be a result of no pass rush. Give an opposing quarterback enough time and any defensive back can be made to look foolish.

In ways, this looks like the anti-Bears team. Where the Panthers match up well against the Bears on paper, against the Vikings it looks like their areas of strength are the Panthers question marks. On defense, if the Panthers can keep Peterson from running wild against them then they should be able to keep the game within reach. The question mark on offense will be if the offensive line can give Delhomme enough time to pick apart the Viking secondary. This could be a close game, as long as the Panthers contain the pass rush. Call it a toss-up if you’re a homer.

- Minnesota leads the all-time series against the Panthers 4-3.

Week Four, home versus the Atlanta Falcons
2007 record: 4-12, last in the NFC South
2007 offensive rank: 23 (26th in rushing, 18th in passing, and 29th in scoring)
2007 defensive rank: 29 (26th against the run, 23rd against the pass, and 29th in points allowed)

The Falcons ended the 2007 season in exactly the shape fans wanted them; Panther fans that is. They took a team in disarray with locker room problems and huge holes on both lines and lowered the talent level by releasing some of their best players on both sides of the ball. Just listing their needs would make you wonder if they had a team at all: Quarterback, two tackes on each line, running back, center, guard, tight end, wide receiver, middle linebacker, cornerback, and safety. All that before you even address depth in general. Fortunately for them they went into the draft with a pile of picks. Rookies won’t do it alone though, and that suggests an interesting 2008 campaign.

At quarterback they have last years committee plus the new golden boy in Matt Ryan. If they don’t ruin him by throwing him to the wolves right away, he could develop into a great QB, a la Peyton Manning, to whom a lot of comparisons are already made. Too bad that in Manning’s first year he posted a whopping 71.2 rating on 26 TDs, 28 INTs, and 22 sacks for 109 lost yards. That was after a significantly better college career too… This early in the season they’ll probably still be starting Redmon, who doesn’t suck too bad although he still kind of sucks.

Their re-tooled offensive line will feature rookie Sam Baker and returning tackle Tyson Clabo in an engaging contest to see who’s more suited for the right side. The line surrendered 47 sacks, and the hope is that Baker will team with free agent Alex Stepanovich to upgrade the overall talent level and maybe get that number down to a more respectable 42. At Tight End, it’s doubtful that the committee of Ben Hartsock, Martrez Milner, and Keith Zinger will strike the same fear into opposing defenses as Alge Crumpler did.

At running back the Falcons do have something to look forward to. They signed Michael Turner from the Chargers in the offseason, but it remains to be seen how much of his 5.0 yards per carry average was due to Tomlinson fatigue and a strong offensive line. Being the feature back and running behind the likes of Kynan Forney may not give the same results, and by week three that should be plenty apparent.

On defense their problems start up front. They have a good pass rush in John Abraham and Jamaal Anderson, but they have no run stuffers on the defensive line. Ex-Panther Kindal Moorehead is slated to start next to Jonathan Babineaux, giving the Falcons two undersized defensive tackles on their front. Their linebackers are still the same group that they had last year, and one year older. That’s pertinent because Keith Brooking is 32 this year, and his replacement is a rookie who may be good, but who doesn’t look like the next John Beason.

Their secondary is just sad. Of their four starters, only Lawyer Malloy jumps out at the average NFL fan as someone to watch, and he’s 34. When half of your secondary is made up of castoffs from the Jets and Texans, you may need to worry about the passing game. There are several rookies here that might make an impact, but this is easily the weakest part of the defense.

So in summary, the Falcons are not likely to be very good this year. On offense they’ll try and run the ball, but it remains to be seen if last year’s 26th ranked attack was a one-time aberration or a sign that it’s time to rebuild. Their passing attack leaves a little to be desired, particularly since they lost more than they gained in Alge Crumpler’s departure.

So in this, the last game of the first quarter, the Panthers should get a good win against a struggling Falcons team. The Falcons defensive interior will wear down from the constant push of our large offensive line and the running style of Jonathan Stewart. Jake will have more targets in the passing game than the Falcons can cover. The Panthers should be able to shut down Atlanta’s passing game with minimal pressure, and if they can keep the Falcons from grinding it out on the ground then it’s no stretch to pencil this game in as a likely win. Coming at home versus a team we all love to hate will give a lot of cause for optimism, even if we’re just 2-2 at that point.

- Atlanta leads the all-time series against the Panthers 16-10.

So there you have it, the first quarter in a John Fox season. Call it two probables, a maybe, and a probably not. If the Panthers come out of here 2-2 I think a lot of fans will be happy, given the nature of the schedule. 1-3 is a possibility, and if the offense catches fire 3-1 isn’t out of the question. Of course, it’s all speculation at this point, but what else can you do in May?