Four Quarters, a look at the 2008 schedule in May/June (games 9-12)
June 4, 2008
The third quarter picks up where the second leaves off–with a talented opponent that should be an easy win based on matchups. At this point the Panthers should hopefully have a winning record, with the promise of a great season still intact. Fans and players alike will be talking about gearing up for a playoff run. At the same time the division race should be very close, and based on schedule there’s a lot of reason to think that the Panthers will only be sharing first place at best, and could be in second or even third. This is where the Panthers need to establish themselves as a contender, and make their push for the division title.
Week Ten, at the Oakland Raiders
2007 record: 4-12, last in the AFC West
2007 offensive rank: 25 (6th in rushing, 31st in passing, and 23rd in scoring)
2007 defensive rank: 22 (31st against the run, 8th against the pass, and 26th in points allowed)
You can almost always count on the Raiders to ignore conventional wisdom and do things their own way. Last year they were good at running the ball and solid defending the pass. On the other hand they couldn’t throw the ball, and defending the run was a huge problem. So naturally when they approached the draft they doubled down on their strengths, drafting a running back and getting help in the secondary. They also got a couple of projects at Wide Receiver, but overall they really ignored their most glaring needs and went for style points instead.
On offense the Raiders look very set at Quarterback and Running Back. They have two former SEC stars there in JaMarcus Russell and Darren McFadden. The McFadden pick was a big surprise to some, but if you look at Minnesota in 2006 they looked set with Chester Taylor. Then they drafted Adrian Peterson and he almost got them into the playoffs. Maybe McFadden can do the same thing for the Raiders. He’ll team with Justin Fargas to give the Raiders good ground production between the 20s, and maybe they can take enough attention off of Russell that he can stretch the field with his cannon of an arm.
The Raiders do not have a starting quality Wide Receiver on their roster. On most teams, Ronald Curry would be a number three receiver assuming he could avoid the injury list. It won’t be a big surprise to see Javon Walker and Drew Carter starting for the Raiders, which might bring a smile to a Panthers fan or two. The Raiders drafted two receivers as well, obviously hoping that they get lucky with one of them and find someone who can breathe life into their passing game. They also need help at Left Tackle, and didn’t get it. The lack of protection there may cause problems for Russell.
On defense their needs are legion. Looking at their run defense, they really needed two defensive tackles and at least one defensive end. They could have used a better strongside linebacker, and help at Free Safety. They may have found help at the FS position in the draft, but the defensive line is still a mess. The Raiders’ pass rush in 2007 made the Panthers’ look good by comparison, that’s how bad it was. In the secondary they have talent and speed, but why throw it when it’s so easy to run? Also, when you do throw if you have all day it’s easy to make a cornerback look bad.
Another thing the Raiders have working against them is their schedule. The Panthers come in to Oakland off a bye week. The Raiders will have played through their conference schedule, at New Orleans, at Baltimore, and at Buffalo. If they’re over a .500 team at this point it will be a shock to many. By this time their holes will be apparent to all, opponents will have plenty of film to study, and the book will be out on how to beat the Raiders. The only good news for them is that they’re hosting Carolina a week after hosting Atlanta, so they may be feeling a little confident.
Assuming the injury bug hasn’t changed the Panthers playbook, expect a steady diet of Stewart up the middle and Williams around the edge. The Panthers will eat up as much clock as possible and force the secondary into one-on-one matchups, which is how Smith will get his yards. The Raiders will do the same with McFadden and Fargas, so it will come down to which team can play better against the run. Given the relative off season activities, the nod goes to the Panthers there. This should be a win to open up the third quarter of the season.
- Oakland leads series 2-1.
Week Eleven, home versus the Detroit Lions
2007 record: 7-9, third in the NFC North
2007 offensive rank: 19 (31st in rushing, 9th in passing, and 16th in scoring)
2007 defensive rank: 32 (23rd against the run, 31st against the pass, and 32nd in points allowed)
Maybe this is the year that Detroit finally gets back to the playoffs. Their record was close in 2007, and if the season was only eight games long they would have been a shoe-in last year. Unfortunately, they went 1-7 in the final eight last year, and fortunately for the Panthers it’s week eleven, which is past time for the Lions to begin folding again.
The Lions have a decent passing game, but no rushing offense to speak of and they didn’t do a lot to improve that in the off season. They got rid of Kevin Jones and T.J. Duckett and kept Tatum Bell. Now all they have to do is run the ball. Their biggest need, by far, is someone, anyone, who can open holes in the running game. They drafted Godser Cherilus who should team with Johnathan Scott to give them some good bookends, but their interior wasn’t addressed and it was largely ineffective at creating running lanes in 2007. Maybe their new offensive coordinator will figure it out; if he doesn’t then don’t figure on Detroit taking the next step anytime soon.
On defense they needed a real overhaul, and they got it. The Lions allowed more points than anyone in 2007, and that was a big part of their late season collapse. They dropped six key defensive players from the 2007 unit, trading away the disgruntled and cutting the unmotivated and unskilled. As a result, their defensive line especially is a huge question mark. Detroit wants to run a Tampa-2 (which is good news for Jake Delhomme), and that will require a strong push from the front four. At first glance it doesn’t look promising. They replaced Shaun Rogers with former Seahawk Chartric (Chuck) Darby, who’s athleticism won’t make anyone look twice. Their ends didn’t do a lot in 2007, but upgrading them was a low priority given the more pressing needs Detroit needed to address. They’ll likely end up with a rookie at MLB, but at least they’ll be in good shape at the Mike and Will positions.
Their secondary will also improve, simply because it would be hard to make it worse. Not only did the Lions fail to produce pressure on opposing QBs, they regularly blew assignments in coverage as well. The good news is that they’ve made a real effort to restock the secondary. They’ve gotten enough warm bodies into camp that someone should emerge as a decent number one cornerback. But though there are a lot of names, none stand out that really build confidence. Unless someone steps up as a nice surprise, it could be another long, high-scoring season for the Lions.
This should be a win. The Lions are on their way up, and look like they’ve filled the holes on their roster, but they have no playmakers and few prospects in their problem areas from last year. The offense may be more balanced, but the defense looks worse, despite all the new faces. If Hackett is healthy, then for a week at least the Panthers will look like the Greatest Show on Turf. This could be a break-out game for Robinson or Jarrett too. Played in the friendly confines of Bank of America stadium, look for the Panthers to light up the scoreboard en route to an easy win.
- Carolina leads series 3-1.
Week Twelve, at the Atlanta Falcons
2007 record: 4-12, last in the NFC South
2007 offensive rank: 23 (26th in rushing, 18th in passing, and 29th in scoring)
2007 defensive rank: 29 (26th against the run, 23rd against the pass, and 29th in points allowed)
Here’s where it gets fun. Between week four and week twelve, the Falcons have to go to Green Bay and Philadephia, and host hungry teams from Chicago, Oakland, and Denver. They also get New Orleans in the mix. That’s two hard places to play, a division opponent, and three teams that look at the Falcons as a potential win if they take the game seriously. Anything more than four wins for them at this point will look good, and that’s the place they’ll be when Carolina makes their annual appearance in Atlanta.
Carolina won’t need to sense an opportunity to get themselves up for Atlanta. History will do that for them. In this series the visitor has claimed the last five (although hopefully that streak will have been broken), so it’s not difficult for either team to play on the other guy’s home turf.
Atlanta, on the other hand, will be faced with the prospect that the wheels are about to come off on any hopes they have for the playoffs. Every year each team starts with high hopes, and the ugly realities set in at different stages for each of them. Atlanta’s will likely come in this span. After the Panthers, they face trips to San Diego, New Orleans, and Minnesota, and have to host Tampa Bay. Assuming they don’t shock the world, they’ll be approaching this as a spoiler.
It’s entirely possible that Matt Ryan will be starting by now. Sam Baker certainly will be. Anyone who Atlanta considers a part of their future plans will be on the field getting valuable experience for 2009. Injuries will have set in, exposing holes and forcing players into unfamiliar roles. It’s not going to be pretty on a team that started with as many holes as the Falcons have.
So, given all that, you should probably just make this a Falcons win. Why? Well, more than any team in the South the Falcons have had the Panthers’ number. The games are always intense, and they’ve spoiled more parties than most Panther fans care to remember. This is a time for overconfident Panthers to march into a thicket of rookies and free agents prepared to have career games. The Panthers will represent the Falcons’ own private Super Bowl, and if history holds they won’t be ready for it. Every year the Panthers seem to blow a game that they’re expected to win, and this year there’s no better candidate than Atlanta in week twelve.
- Atlanta leads series 16-10.
Week Thirteen, at the Green Bay Packers
2007 record: 13-3, first in the NFC North
2007 offensive rank: 2 (21st in rushing, 2nd in passing, and 4th in scoring)
2007 defensive rank: 11 (14th against the run, 12th against the pass, and 6th in points allowed)
The “third quarter” of the 2008 season finishes with Carolina ending their tour of the NFC North in Green Bay, Wisconsin. Playing in Green Bay in November is always an adventure, you never know what the weather is going to do. The old advantage that the frozen tundra gave is long gone though, and without Brett Favre under center the Packers don’t seem nearly as daunting an opponent. The Packers are still the favorites in the NFC North though, and they’re also one of the youngest teams in the league. Barring injury or a complete meltdown in the locker room, this looks to be a fairly difficult contest.
On defense there is reason to think that they may be a little more vulnerable against the pass than in 2007, as they’re replacing their best defensive tackle and their two starting cornerbacks are both in their 30s. They needed an upgrade at their strong-side linebacker, as Brady Poppinga is weak against the pass. It’s not like he’s terrible though, and when you’re reduced to making criticisms like that then it’s a sign that you’re talking about a pretty solid unit. All in all, the defense is good in coverage, good against the run, and good at keeping the scoring to a minimum.
On offense they’re in good shape too. They have a little age on their offensive line, but they also have depth to cover it. At running back Ryan Grant will have proven he’s no fluke by now, or maybe this becomes a much easier game. They still have Donald Driver and Greg Jennings, and second year man James Jones will look to improve on a 47 catch rookie campaign. All they need is for someone to throw the ball. Unfortunately for Green Bay, no quarterback on their roster has ever started a game in the NFL.
Despite the lack of experience, there’s plenty of talent at QB on their roster. Aaron Rodgers is a former first round choice who was drafted and groomed to be Favre’s replacement. He looked great in limited action against Dallas last year, knows the system, and has the skill to succeed. Brian Brohm was the preseason favorite to be the number one overall pick this year, until Louisville laid an egg during the regular season and Matt Ryan began staging comebacks. Matt Flynn was the leader of the LSU squad that executed the annual “SEC dismantles an over-rated Ohio State team” game. So there’s talent on the roster. It’s all about how well they integrate it on the field. Regardless of who ends up starting (Rodgers is a near lock), Driver, Jennings, and Jones should make the transition fairly smooth, and Ryan Grant will help keep the pressure off.
So what’s it all look like? The Panthers need a complete game here to compete. They’ll have to contain the running game while getting enough pressure to force Rodgers into some bad throws. The good news is that they’ll have plenty of tape on him by now. They’ll need to deal with the pressure of playing in Green Bay. They’ll also need to move the ball in a balanced attack on a stout Packer defense, because if they go one-dimensional then the game’s over. Will they do it? Of course! The Panthers won’t be given a shot in hell at winning, but after the Atlanta game they’ll be in a mood that allows them to pull it off. This is going to be a close game between a surprised Green Bay team and a scrappy and poised Carolina squad. If life is good the victory will come on a five yard QB draw as time expires for a two point win.
- Green Bay leads series 7-3.
So on evaluating all the games, there’s a real shot at a second straight 3-1 “quarter” for the Panthers. An 8-4 record sounds great, but if you look around the division you can easily imagine the Bucs and Saints at 8-4 as well. This year the division title is going to go down to the wire, with no likely resolution until the final week when the Panthers are at the Saints. The title hunt will take shape in the first game of the fourth quarter of the season though, as the Panthers host the Bucs and the Saints host the Falcons. That’s going to mean more excitement around Panther territory than the fans have seen in some time. It’s not even too far fetched to imagine fans in the lower deck actually standing during some games. Ok, maybe that’s a little much…
See you all next week with a season wrap-up. 
