Carolina Huddle

If the Panthers have any good fortune at all where injuries are concerned, this is the stretch that will define their season. The first four games in 2008 are difficult, and a split in that span would be welcome. In the second group of four and in the third group of four games, the Panthers will be playing in what looks to be the easy part of their schedule. There’s a lot of good reasons to be optimistic about a 6-2 record over that span. If all of that comes together, the Cats could be 8-4 heading into the home stretch.

But the Panthers aren’t the only team which figures to be in good shape come December. The Buccaneers and Saints both feel like they’ve done a good job patching their holes in this off season. The Saints should have a powerful offense, and if their defense can stay healthy and if they get decent secondary play they’ll be right there with the Panthers in the division hunt. The Buc’s defense will be stout again, and all they really need is good play at the QB spot and a decent running game to be right there as well. The Panthers play both of these teams during the last month of the season, and those games are likely to define the season for all three of them.

Week Fourteen, home versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2007 record: 9-7, first in the NFC South
2007 offensive rank: 18 (11th in rushing, 16th in passing, and 18th in scoring)
2007 defensive rank: 2 (17th against the run, 1st against the pass, and 3rd in points allowed)

The Buccaneers host the New Orleans Saints the week before this match up, and that’s going to have a real impact on their mood. Tampa Bay will come into Bank of America stadium riding high off a win against the Saints and ready to try and put the division away, or they’ll be desperate to stay in the hunt after a loss. Either way, they’re going to be motivated and hopefully looking to avenge an earlier home loss to the Panthers. This game will be on Monday Night Football, which is always good for pumping up the players on both sides.

December is the month where all the minor injuries that accumulate over the season really start taking their toll. The defense should be fine; The Bucs have a lot of good young talent on that side of the ball. Monte Kiffin also takes good advantage of the talent he’s given to work with, and that side of the ball is a traditional strength down the stretch. On offense however, the Bucs are thin at all of the skill positions and they have an unproven line. They can recover from injuries to their defense, but if they get a lot of injuries on the offensive side of the ball their season is sunk, and at this point it will be pretty obvious.

Even if both teams are at full strength, the match ups still ought to favor the Panthers. Assuming good health all around, the Panthers secondary is far better than the Tampa receivers, and the front seven shouldn’t have too much of a problem containing their running game. The Panther defense should have an easy time keeping the Bucs under 20, so it’s going to come down to the offense.

Right now we’re discussing December in June. Yes, this is the off season, where all the questions have only good answers. But come December the following things will be known:

• The strength of Jake’s elbow and the extent of his recovery;
• D. J. Hackett’s injury status, and Moose’s effectiveness as a second receiver in his thirteenth season;
• Stewart’s ability to run in the NFL like he did in college;
• Otah’s adjustment to NFL speed, and the play of the right side of the offensive line;
• Peppers return to All-Pro form, and the Defensive Line pressure in general.

If at least four of those five items are net positives, the Panthers should be feeling pretty good about themselves. With Jake under center and a decent running game, 21+ points on the Bucs in December will be a solid expectation, and the team will play like it.

It’s always difficult to sweep a division opponent, unless the teams involved are the Panthers and the Bucs. It’s a Monday Night game, and the Panthers are due to look good on the national stage. Call it another win at home to really get the crowd rolling, and to send the Bucs spiraling down to third place in the division standings.

- Carolina leads series 9-6.

Week Fifteen, home versus the Denver Broncos
2007 record: 7-9, second in the AFC West
2007 offensive rank: 11 (9th in rushing, 13th in passing, and 21st in scoring)
2007 defensive rank: 19 (30th against the run, 7th against the pass, and 28th in points allowed)

The Broncos are one of three teams that the Panthers have never beaten, with Houston and Miami being the other two. In that group, Denver is probably closer to the Dolphins skill-wise than it is the Texans. This game is the season finale at home for the Panthers, and it’s nice that Denver is probably the easiest team they’ll play this month. Ending the home season with a win would be a nice gift to the fans.

In 2007 the Broncos couldn’t stop the run, and uncharacteristically struggled running the ball themselves. They could move between the 20s, but when it came time to put points on the board everything ground to a halt. Although they had the 9th most rushing yards in the league, breaking down the situational stats tell a different story than that suggests, The Broncos were 15th in rushing first downs, 20th in rushing TDs and second in rushes over 20 yards. Those are the type of stats that can put the lie to something that at first glance looks like a strength. Their backs didn’t score a lot, and padded their stats with a few big runs per game. If their backs can be contained, then they’ll end up in a lot of third and long situations.

The Broncos know their running game is weaker than it looks, so in the off season they took a lot of action here, overhauling their running back position and adding a strong left tackle in the draft in Ryan Clady (although come to think of it, wasn’t his strength supposed to be protection?). Travis Henry and his attitude have been cut, making way for second year man Selvin Young to assume the starter’s role. Young showed some nice flashes last year with a 5.2 yards per carry average, but he only had 10 carries per game. There’s reason to question his ability to be an every down back also, as his yards per carry fell 6.4 in the first half of games to 3.6 in the second.

The Broncos also signed Michael Pittman to back up Young and be the second back in their offense. That’s assuming he can beat out their two rookies, Ryan Torain from Arizona State and Peyton Hillis from Arkansas. Hillis is more of a Nick Goings-type fullback, but should make the roster based on his ability to catch out of the backfield. Torain is kind of a sleeper, but in Denver sleepers have a way of becoming stars. Look for Young to need a lot of relief and at this point in the season, based on what Carolina fans know of Pittman, look for Torain to be the one providing it.

At receiver, the Broncos are hurting enough to have given Keary Colbert a nice contract in the off season. They have a great number two receiver in Brandon Marshall, and are solid at the slot with Brandon Stokely. What they need is a solid number one, and they don’t have one on their roster. Javon Walker was supposed to be the answer, but he didn’t work out. They’re left with Colbert, Darrell Jackson, Samie Parker, Edell Shepherd, and a fourth round draft choice to see if one will emerge. It’s not too likely, given that group, so the air attack in 2008 should look a lot like the one in 2007.

Defensively the Broncos were a mess. They really, really couldn’t defend the run, and they couldn’t keep opposing teams out of the end zone. Their problems started at the Defensive Tackle position, where they just couldn’t stop the opposing teams running game at the point of attack. To address this they went shopping in Free Agency and brought in DeWayne Robertson from the Jets. The Jets were barely better against the run than the Broncos were in 2007, but Robertson seems better suited for the 3-4 so he may have an impact. They also drafted Carlton Powell out of Virginia Tech, but he’s a rather one-dimensional run-stuffer type and may not see the field enough to help.

Niko Koutouvides and draft pick Spencer Larsen will be tried at the MLB spot to allow D. J. Williams to move outside, but if that doesn’t work out then don’t expect much to improve for the Broncos on the defensive side of the ball. They might be better than they were in 2007, but there’s no reason to expect them to improve enough for real playoff consideration. This is especially true when you look at the rest of the defense. In the secondary, John Lynch is 36 years old and clearly on the downside of his career. To back him up, Denver signed Marquand Manuel and Marlon McRee. Any defense that depends on those two to improve their Free Safety prospects is in a world of pain.

It looks like another long year is in store for the Broncos. At this point in the season a .500 record will be a moral victory, and you can expect a lot of talk out of Denver about 2008 being a rebuilding year. In December the young guys will be getting the playing time, and the coaches will be looking for things that they can build on for 2009. Denver’s streak against the Panthers will surely be broken here, and it won’t be difficult.

- Denver leads series 2-0.

Week sixteen, at the New York Giants
2007 record: 10-6, second in the NFC North, won Superbowl
2007 offensive rank: 16 (4th in rushing, 21st in passing, and 14th in scoring)
2007 defensive rank: 7 (8th against the run, 11th against the pass, and 17th in points allowed)

The Panthers visit the world champion Giants in late December, in a game that should mean more to the Panthers than it will to the Giants. By this time the Giants will have gone through the NFC East and will already know whether they’re playing for a wild card spot or the division title. It’s possible that they’ve clinched the former or that they see the latter as being out of reach. In any case, it’s not likely that they’re going to rest their starters, but they may not yet be at playoff intensity. Still, Tom Coughlin’s teams tend to play well in December, so this won’t be an easy game by any stretch.

On offense the Giants return just about everyone responsible for their Super Bowl win, and get Jeremy Shockey back to boot. Eli Manning is a much better QB than last year’s 73.9 rating suggests, and in Tom Coughlin’s system he doesn’t need to do much more than manage the game and not turn the ball over. His line was a big surprise last year, given that the entire left side was re-tooled and a guard was shifted to tackle. In 2007 they provided a huge boost for the running game and didn’t perform that poorly in protection either. They’ll return intact in 2008, as one of the strengths of the offense.

The Giants have good depth at running back in Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw. They’re also set at receiver. Plaxico Burress and Amani Toomer return, and even if one or both is injured they still have Sinorice Moss and Steve Smith, both of whom showed promise last year. The Giants also drafted Mario Manningham out of Michigan who could be a great find. He’s got a lot of personal problems, but he was an excellent playmaker in college.

On defense New York lost Gibril Wilson but probably upgraded him by snagging Kenny Phillips with the last pick of the first round of the draft. They also lost Michael Strahan to retirement, and Kawika Mitchell to Free Agency. They’re set across the board though, as they had great depth and developmental players across the board where their front seven are concerned. If there is a downside to the defense it’s in the secondary. The Giands will likely start the rookie Phillips and Sam Madison and R. W. McQuarters are both getting up there in years. Corey Webster played well in the playoffs, but was disappointing during the regular season. Strong Safety James Butler struggled at times last year. All in all, only CB Aaron Ross looks like a solid and dependable player at this point. This is June though, and a lot can happen between now and December.

Calling December games before minicamp has started takes way too much guesswork to be anything more than just fantasy or a mildly entertaining way to pass the time. Still, some games (like Denver) just seem like they’re going to go a certain way based on personnel or history. On the surface, this one looks like a Giant win. However, the Panthers went into the Meadowlands a couple of years ago to take their beating and shut out the home team. In 2007 the Giants walked into Bank of America stadium and laid down an ass-whupping on an injured Panthers team. These are two physical teams with similar philosophies, and John Fox loves to win in New York. This could go either way, and likely will be defined by which team is more banged up when they meet. Call it a toss-up.

- Carolina leads series 3-1.

Week Seventeen, at the New Orleans Saints
2007 record: 7-9, third in the NFC South
2007 offensive rank: 4 (28th in rushing, 3rd in passing, and 12th in scoring)
2007 defensive rank: 26 (13th against the run, 30th against the pass, and 25th in points allowed)

And then there are the Saints. Call me crazy, but I think that this game decides the division. I think that both teams are going to come in to this game in the 9-10 win territory. I think that this will be a huge match up. I think the Panthers are going to feel pretty good about their ball control offense, and I think the Saints will feel good about the pressure they can bring and their ability to score points. All in all, I think I think too much. At any rate, the teams don’t like each other a whole lot, they know each other well, and they’ll both be looking to play the spoiler while vaulting into the playoffs, because the second place team in the NFC South is no lock for a wild card game.

There’s really no telling how this game will go. No one wants to face Drew Brees in a big game, but no one wants to face Jake Delhomme either. The Saints defense will be all pressure, all the time, but the Panthers don’t mind getting physical and have receivers that can beat the Saints’ secondary. If the Panthers keep this from becoming a shoot-out, they win. But even if it is a high scoring affair, don’t count out anyone. For all intents and purposes, this will be a playoff game, and there are few teams in the NFL that are more dangerous on the road in the playoffs than the Carolina Panthers.

- Carolina leads series 14-12.

Season Summary

The NFL Schedule makers didn’t do the Panthers any favors. The toughest opponents the Panthers will likely face come at the beginning and at the end of the year. Carolina may find themselves in an early hole, and if they pull themselves out of it they’ll be there at the end trying to hold on to a playoff spot. It’s not going to be an easy year at all.

In the division, New Orleans has a relatively easy time of it, with their toughest opponents coming to the SuperDome. Their difficult match ups are also scattered through the middle of the season, rather than concentrating at a particular point. The Saints should get off to a fast start, and they’ll get to finish with three easy games in December before coming home to face the Panthers. 12-4 isn’t out of the question for them, but if they stumble or face injuries at the wrong positions they might struggle to get to 7-9.

Tampa Bay has just as many questions, and the most difficult schedule in the South. They get a lot of favorable match ups at home, but they play the first place teams in the NFC and that’s going to be a real challenge. The Bucs don’t really have an easy stretch of games, which could break them. On the other hand, it could make them tough as nails. Given the issues they have on offense though, a late season skid isn’t that unlikely.

As for the Falcons, this isn’t going to be their year. It doesn’t matter what the schedule is like, they’re just not going to make a playoff run. I really only include them here to be polite.

The Panthers are playing a schedule that, in a weird way, is almost designed to bring them huge success. The early games will test them, and could break them. Injuries have played a large part in determining the Panthers’ mediocrity for the past two years, and they may still need to learn how to overcome them. If they get that part of the game though, or if they finally catch a few breaks this could be a great year. After the initial challenges the Panthers will know a lot about where they’re strong and what needs to be improved. They’ll have some great opportunities during the soft part of the schedule to address those areas, and December provides a series of tests to see how well they’ve put it all together.

If they roar into the playoffs on the strength of a three or four game winning streak, book tickets to Tampa. If they stumble over the last two weeks, then don’t even look for a January game because the wild cards probably won’t be coming from the South this year. This year should be full of promise, but if the crash comes it will probably at least happen late enough to keep the fans interested into December.

Speculating is always fun, but you have to play the games of course. I suspect I’ll eat a fair bit of crow for these four articles, but it’s still fun to play what-if during the off season. We play what-if every year, of course, but this year seems different. Lots of regulars have been cut. There’s depth everywhere. All of the injury reports are good, and there’s no “Dan Morgan” out there causing nail-biting worries among the faithful.

I’m sure a lot of you would like to see things the way I do, and some if you have your own ideas on how things will turn out. In the end, it doesn’t matter who’s wrong or who’s right, as long as we enjoy the ride.

Here’s to 2008!