shaka

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About shaka

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  1. That's a concern of mine as well considering the number of carries he had in some of these games,20+ touches in multiple games is a lot for any running back. [email protected] NFL Shield At Midfieldposted this earlier in the topic: http://www.sbnation.com/2016/4/6/11353286/derrick-henry-nfl-draft-2016-running-back-alabama The main idea behind that piece is that he's not a straight up bulldozer and doesn't take/dish out as much punishment as you would think.
  2. I don't care about the highlight stuff. I'm talking about the huge hole, one cut on the DB with the bad angle off to the races touchdown runs. I wanted to see regular plays. SoI watched Derrick Henry vs Florida and Georgia. Here's my takeaways: Very rarely has a negative play Falls forward on almost every tackle Consistently gets 2-6 yards with defenders in the backfield If there's a hole, hits it hardand gets 4+ If there's no hole, puts head down and gets 0-3 yards Kind of a shitty pass blocker I don't love the pick but I get it after watching some tape. I think you draft him wanting the Derrick Henry vs Florida; 44 carries 189 yards 4.3 YPC. It's not pretty, it's not a scoring threat on every play but it works. It's a constant, methodical grindthat should help us (if he's the pick) with our four minute offense. If you have the time I would suggest watching his game vs Florida. In particular I think the run starting at 8:22 is what you're (hoping) you're drafting. Late in the game and Alabama is up by 14 with 5 minutes to go. Everyone knows it's a run, the DT blows up the guard and the linebacker goes right past the tackle. This could be a three yard loss, tanking a drive where you need to run out some clock. Instead Henry runs through a tackle and falls forward with a defender on him for a 4 yard gain. What could have been 2nd and 10-13 is 2nd and 6 making the first down easier to pick up. I certainly see that being useful for us. Is there a better pick out there? Possibly but for now, I think I can say 'I get it. I don't love it, but I get it.'
  3. Replay assistant for SB50, was a Broncos fan

    I'm assuming you mean the long punt return and the missed field goal. There was an illegal fake fair catch signal by Norwood and Talib was offsides. Just admit the calls were slanted heavily in favor of the Broncos. Are the bad calls the reason the panthers lost? No, great teams should overcome bad officiating. If the officiating is fair and neutral you take at least ten points off the Broncos score. But playing the what if game is stupid and there's no changing the past. The Broncos are super bowl champions. There's a comment in the belowthread by @CPantherKingthat really highlights the extremely high number of bad calls in favor of the Broncos. 18 bad or missed calls. That goes far beyond the "bad calls in every game" argument you're making.
  4. New Half

    We're going to come out looking like a different team. We will dominate the second half and win by ten. Keep pounding.
  5. What position did you play?

    I was decent at two sports in high school, baseball and football. I was a tall skinny kid so naturally I started as a WR/DE. As time passed, I added some muscle and ended up playing a number of positions before landing at middle linebacker and fullback. I tore my MCL twice my senior year and ended up missing 7.5 out of 10 games. I got a scholarship to play baseball, which I didn't enjoy as much as football. Found out my senior year of college I had been getting recruiting letters for football and my mom threw them out because I had gotten hurt. A lot of small schools but I remember the biggest one. Pittsburgh Panthers. Still pisses me off to think about to this day.
  6. Scott Simonson saved his sister's life

    fug this guy. No seriously, great story from the town right next to mine. Would love to see this guy be the next big thing or play a big role in the super bowl.
  7. What Broncos Fans Are Saying

    Actually the Denver defense looks better yardage wise from playing teams ranked lower on average than the teams the Panthers played. Scoring wise we faced on average similar opponents, and that shows with only an 8 point differential there. Source:
  8. Good points. No discounting was done. The actual impact of Denver's defense on opponents offensive ranking is not something I have a desire to calculate. But let's napkin math an example for a division opponent. Let's use 350 yards per game as an average. This would put our imaginary team at 17th in offensive yards per game. The Broncos let up on average 283 yards per game. Scenario 1) They play the Broncos twice and put up their averages. 14 other games x 350 yards + 283yards + 283yards = 5466total yards Scenario 2) They put up their offensiveaverage each game 16 games x 350 yards = 5600 yards That's the difference between coming in 21stand 17th in yards. For non-divisional opponents the effect would be dampened. There's certainly some merit but that's a slippery slope to go down. You start adding in other variables and we'll begin over analyzing and looking like Seahawk fans quoting advanced metrics. They're a great defense, but this "elite" stuff is nonsense.
  9. I get where you're going with this but from a yardage standpoint it actually helps their cause. Look at the regular season game vs the Steelers. Pitt had two scoring drives that result from turnovers. Combined yards? 58. Every other scoring drive was at least 50 yards. They're a great defense and I haven't watched them enough to say they're one of the best in the last 15 years. They could be, I don't know. But if people want to take pot shots at us saying we had a joke schedule or faced bad defenses, I'm going to call them out on playing cupcake offenses. You lead the league in rushing defense after playing the Browns, Colts, Ravens, Chargers twice, Raiders twice, Lions and NE? Good, you should that's 9 games against bottom of the barrel running teams.
  10. This is in response to this article attempting to discredit our offense based on opposing defenses: http://www.milehighreport.com/2016/1/27/10846346/a-critical-look-at-the-panthers-offense I'm using the same idea that the author does showing that Denver benefited from playing worse offensive teams than the Panthers. Here are the statistical ranks of the offenses Denver played with averages at the bottom: Here are the statistical ranks of the offenses Carolina played with averages at the bottom: On average, the Broncos played easier offenses. And lastly the defensive ranks and totals of the Broncos and Panthers: Denver: Pass 1st - 3193 yards Rush 3rd - 1337 yards Total1st - 4530 yards Scoring4th - 296 points Carolina: Pass 11th -3752 yards Rush 4th - 1415 yards Total 6th -5167 yards Scoring 6th - 308 points Takeaways: Denver played on average, weaker passing and running opponents then Carolina Difference between this "Elite" Denver defense and ours is...559 passing yards, 78 rushing yards and 8 points The Denver defense is great, our offense is goodgreat. Our defense is great, their offense is not very good. fug Seattle, New Orleans, Atlanta and OBJ Edit: fixed good to great for our offense
  11. Wining the superbowl?
  12. I've never seen the Karate Kid (blasphemous I know)but...
  13. I was lurking on that Seahawks abomination of a message board when someone had said something along the lines of, "well you Panther fans just don't like DVOA because it's complicated. Just read about it, it's not that bad." So I did. DVOA - Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. Part of the explanation from the DVOA site: "Going back to our example of the three-yard rush, if Player A gains three yards under a set of circumstances in which the average NFL running back gains only one yard, then Player A has a certain amount of value above others at his position. Likewise, if Player B gains three yards on a play on which, under similar circumstances, an average NFL back gains four yards, that Player B has negative value relative to others at his position. Once we make all our adjustments, we can evaluate the difference between this player’s rate of success and the expected success rate of an average running back in the same situation (or between the opposing defense and the average defense in the same situation, etc.). Add up every play by a certain team or player, divide by the total of the various baselines* for success in all those situations, and you get VOA, or Value Over Average." There, I bolded the important part for you. Now let's take a hypothetical look at why anything Value Over Average should be taken with a grain of salt. Warning: numbers, math and a bunch of hypothetical bullshit starts now. Yes, there's a ton of cherry picking and a lot of oversimplification. I don't care about you trying to punch holes in my argument, this is my take on DVOA and why it's not worth my time. I will not respond. I give zero fugs. There are zero fugs given. There were 6845 third downs in the NFL during the regular season this year. Of those 2667 were converted. For the sake of easier math, let's round those up. 7000 3rd down plays. 3000 conversions. This is where I start making things up to illustrate an extreme. Let's break it down further, assuming a uniform distribution on third down distances and only looking at the converted plays. 1000 Third and short (less than 3) 1000 Third and medium (4-7) 1000 Third and long (8+) Now lets break down third and short into the following: 500 Third and one 500 Third and two And now third and one plays by conversion play. 50 Penalty 300 Run 150 Pass Now let's look at third and one routes ran Go/Seam - 30 Curl - 60 Out - 60 Further, lets look at just the seam routes 10 went for touchdowns, 20 did not Now let's look at the 20 that didn't go for touchdowns because arguably plays that go for touchdowns should be worth more. (15 numbers generated randomly between 7 and 40, 5 numbers generated randomly between 30 and 75) 9,12,13,13,15,19,23,23,25,26,29,34,36,37,39,42,55,61,65,72 Average of: 32.4 yards Now with this knowledge, let me present a scenario. It's the first quarter. The Panthers win the toss and elect to defer. The Saints have a 9 play 75 yard 7 minute drive before the defense forces a turnover at the Carolina 5 yard line. The Panthers ran the ball twice, and are in a third and one on our own 14 yard line. Greg Olsen is bracketed on the play, runs a seam route and makes a one handed catch for 9 yards. Let's look at the VOA: 9 yards compared to the 32.4 yard average on third and one seam routes. Look at this piece of poo Greg Olsen, he isn't even remotely close to average. But wait, now throw in the fact that the Saints are a historically bad defense. The Saints on average give up 11 yards on third down because they're assholes. Jesus Christ Greg, you can't even get 11 yards on third down. Relative to other third downs against the Saints, that's a below average play. Facts: 9 yard catch on third and one. Positives:converted on third down Negatives: Well below average in similar circumstances. Below average against the defense Obviously the real DVOA is a lotmore refined. But you can begin to see the cracks in the metric. I don't give a flying poo about how we performed relative to the NFL averagewhen the NFL average still contains the Browns. I feel like we're still missing something... Oh that's right, the actual football game. First of all, one handed catch while being doubled. That's a hell of a catch and is in no way, shape, or form average. Secondly, the value of picking up the first down in this situation is gigantic. I don't care if this possession results in points. Give me a first down or two, let my defense catch their breath and try to get the Saints offense out of rhythm. You know moleface and vicodin boy are kicking themselves for not getting points, and want that ball back bad. The best defense is keeping their offense off the field. The Saints historically bad defense works against us in this situation, but where's the weight or emphasis on the third down conversion that keeps the #1 passing attack on the sideline. It's an interesting take on traditional stats that is decent butjust feels..incomplete. TLDR: DVOA is a good metric, and is better than your traditional stats. However, there's a lot more to football than performing against the average. Where's the metric that accounts for going back to a wide receiver on a crucial third down when two plays earlier he dropped a long touchdown? Or the metric showing the impact of a physical running game on pass defenses over time? What about pass velocity by route and the correlation to drops? And penalties committed butnot called by refs? Successful play types by defense called? How much of a sample size will you really get from third and short go routes against double a gap blitzes? It sure as hell won't be credible. The game of football is complex, and there will never be a metric to account for every little thing that happens during a play. Summary of the TLDR: I used to ignore DVOA. I still ignore DVOA. fug the Seahawks.