TN05

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About TN05

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  • Location Conover, North Carolina

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  1. TN05 added a post in a topic Obama: If I ran again, I could win   

    No, we're not. You ignore the point it refers mostly to turnout among traditionally Democratic groups - or, to put it simply, people who turn out to vote just because Obama is on the ticket. Naturally, the viability of such a coalition in elections without Obama is questionable. But understanding that means you can't accuse me of being a bigot, so we can't actually try and comprehend what I wrote.
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  2. TN05 added a post in a topic PP facing real problems now   

    Of course, natural events are totally the same thing as dismembering a baby alive in the womb (but making sure to preserve the parts you want to harvest). Totally no difference between natural death and induced death.
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  3. TN05 added a post in a topic PP facing real problems now   

    Lol you're quoting Rebecca Watson? Even other atheists know she's an idiot.
    And abortion is not 'just 3% of Planned Parenthood's services'. It accounts for a third of their non-governmental operating revenue (around $100 million) and the perform over 300,000 abortions a year. And of course Planned Parenthood is the only organization doing cancer screenings or birth control, so that totally excuses selling baby body parts.
    Perfect example of cognitive dissonance. Fetuses aren't human or babies, but we can totally harvest their human baby organs.
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  4. TN05 added a post in a topic Obama: If I ran again, I could win   

    That's the platform. Harper's supported free trade, lower taxes, abandoned Kyoto, and got rid of the Long Gun Registry. Hard to get any better in Canada. Never mind that you said I know nothing about Canada, when literally the only thing I said was the Tories were in power the last ten years. Which they were and are.
    It's not half the country. It's traditional Democratic voter bases (blacks, young voters), as well as expanded ones (Hispanics, unmarried women), and it doesn't focus on people as much as turnout.
    Because you can't combat the obvious fact that the GOP field is more diverse than the Democrat you, you drop back to attacking Fox News. Very typical, generic liberal deflection. 
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  5. TN05 added a post in a topic PP facing real problems now   

    Tell that the people harvesting organs. They're just meaningless clumps of cells, right?
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  6. TN05 added a post in a topic Obama: If I ran again, I could win   

     Prime Minister.tiff

    Stephen Harper: Conservative (Tory) Prime Minister of Canada since 2006. 2006 to 2015 is? Ten years. Next!
     
    And that's a rhetorical argument that isn't being demonstrated in polls. Trump won't win, everyone knows that.
    Rubio, Walker, and Fiorina aren't cutouts. 
    It's no different than saying the 'Bush coalition' was evangelicals and religious Catholics. Obama's coalition is fairly clear: millennials, unmarried women, Hispanics, and black voters. If he didn't have those voters, he would have lost. Same with Bush.
    And you delude yourselves into thinking midterms mean nothing and Hillary's going to have no problem pulling 70% of the Latino vote and 92% of the black vote (which she'll need to do to win if she doesn't pull back white voters, which it doesn't seem like she's aiming to do), with the same amount of turnout in each group as Obama. It's a pipe dream, especially if someone like Rubio - who is young, Hispanic, and has far more of a sympathetic story than Clinton - is the nominee. 
    You're right, Republicans can't win if they lose 55% of the female vote and fail to get more than 30% among Hispanics. Problem is, both of those results from 2012 are incredible outliers.
    Think Progress, lol.
    You can read their platform here. Seems reasonably conservative to me, all things considered, and certainly not to Obama's left.

    And my 'moving to Canada' thing was my response to a hypothetical Trump-Obama race. But way to actually take it seriously.
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  7. TN05 added a post in a topic Obama: If I ran again, I could win   

    It's the coalition that go Obama elected. Specifically, it has included black voters (who have come out in record numbers and voted in record margins for him), women, Hispanics, and young voters. The coalition is not so much one of groups inherently leaning one way or the other; as I showed earlier, the groups turned out in the same demographic proportion in 2014 as 2008, but simply voted differently. Rather, the coalition relies on heavy turnout. In 2012, there was - strong Republican gains among white voters were met with record Hispanic Democratic turnout as well as a strong female vote for Obama. The problem with this coalition is that it is exceeding clear it does not work at all in midterm elections, and even in Presidential years it is questionable if it works when Obama isn't running. 
    Cutouts of what?
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  8. TN05 added a post in a topic Obama: If I ran again, I could win   

    Go ahead and find them, then. Gallup polls have been very consistent on abortion for the last 30 years or so.
    Yes, I'm saying 'if' they slip up, not 'they will slip up'. I severely doubt Hillary is going to inspire the Obama coalition.
    I'm confident it will be, at the very least, a close race. I'm confident the Obama coalition, like in 2010 and 2014, won't turn out... I just don't see her winning 70% of Hispanics and Asians and 95% of blacks. Beyond that, I know as much as you.
    Depends on what you want in a candidate. I'd argue there are a number of reasonable Republicans - Rubio, Kasich, Bush, Walker, Fiorina all come off as that to me.
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  9. TN05 added a post in a topic Obama: If I ran again, I could win   

    And in the last six elections Democrats have only won a majority of the popular vote twice - 2008 and 2012. Both times required historic minority turnout.
    It is indeed. Democrats are hemorrhaging white voters at historic rates, and there is no indication that the Obama coalition exists when Obama isn't on the ticket. Do you seriously think Hillary is going to win 70% of Hispanics and Asians 95% of blacks like Obama did? Because that's about what she has to do to win.
    I guess math is one of those 'nonsense' facts. 
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  10. TN05 added a post in a topic Obama: If I ran again, I could win   

    Except I've actually given facts and statistics while you've given generic Democratic talking points.
    You're right, it definitely is. But from the last two midterms, can you honestly find any indication the Obama coalition works in elections that don't have Obama, or that an old northeastern white woman is going to get the commanding support from minorities she needs to win?
    You're right, it's not the 1950s. That's a good thing. However, whites still make up around 75% of the electorate - same as in 2008. If you are only drawing 40% of the white vote, like Obama did in 2012, you can make up for it by drawing absurd margins among minorities  (93% of blacks, 71% of Hispanics, and 78% of Asians). The problem is, if those numbers slip up, and you keep losing white voters (which is the trend), you can't win. Let me explain how. As I noted earlier, in 2014 the demographics were virtually the same as 2008. Let's say that 2016 features the same demographics, but half the results (ie. take the midpoint between 2012 and 2014). That would mean:
    *White (74%) - 60% Republican, 39% Democrat
    *Black (13%) - 91% Democrat, 8% Republican
    *Hispanic (9%) - 67% Democrat, 32% Republican
    *Asian (3%) - 61% Democrat, 38% Republican
    *Other (2%) - 54% Democrat, 43% Republican

    129,085,403 people voted in 2012. So, let's do the math:
    95,523,199 white voters - 57,313,919 Republican, 37,254,048 Democrat
    16,781,103 black voters - 1,342,489 Republican, 15,270,804 Democrat
    11,617,687 Hispanic voters - 3,717,660 Republican, 7,783,851 Democrat
    3,872,563 Asian voters - 1,471,574 Republican, 2,362,264 Democrat
    2,581,709 Other voters - 1,110,135 Republican, 1,394,123 Democrat
    Total: 64,955,777 Republican, 64,065,090 Democrat

    Each percentage point of the white vote is around 950,000 votes; a loss of one percentage point is a net less of 1.9 million votes. Each percentage point of the black vote is around 170,000 votes, each percentage point of the Hispanic vote is around 110,000 votes, each percentage point of the Asian vote is around 40,000 votes, and each percentage point of the other vote is around 26,000 votes. In other words, in order to make up a loss of just one percentage point of the white vote (1.9 million votes), Democrats would need to win 6 more percentage points of the black vote or 9 more percentage points of the Hispanic vote.

    Both of those are difficult. If Romney had won three percentage points more of the white vote, he would have won, even with 2012's racial vote. But as I showed above, if 2014's demographic results don't slide more than halfway back to 2012's, Democrats can't win. 
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  11. TN05 added a post in a topic Obama: If I ran again, I could win   

    Facts are nonsense? Great response. When pressed with facts you don't like, call them nonsense. 
    Like in 2014?
     
    They are hemorrhaging white voters, and if 2014 is an indication they aren't holding minority voters. Hence a 28 point Republican swing among Asians, a 10 point Republican swing among Hispanics, and a 12 point Republican swing among blacks. But no, those facts are just 'nonsense'.
    There we go with the old 'voter ID is racist' canard. I personally find it more offensive that you evidently think minorities are too stupid to get a free voter ID.
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  12. TN05 added a post in a topic Obama: If I ran again, I could win   

    I'm interested that you facetiously say the Republican field is 'diverse'. Well, it is, both ideologically and racially. The Democratic field is 100% white, almost 100% Northeastern, and ideologically homogenous. The Republican field, on the other hand, has four minority candidates (the only black, Indian, and Hispanic candidates in the race), as many women as the Democrats have, and as many women as the Democrats have. There's also serious candidates from every region - the West (Florina), the Northeast (Christie), the Deep South (Rubio, Bush), the border South (Paul), the Southwest (Perry), and the Midwest (Kasich, Walker). By all accounts, the Republican field is far more representative of America than the Democratic one.

    And of course the Republicans are just abortion extremists, right? 70% of Americans believe either abortion should be illegal only under certain circumstances, or not legal at all. Vast majorities of Americans oppose second and third trimester abortions, waiting periods, parental consent, and spousal notification - all Republican policies. Meanwhile, the Democratic stance is that abortion should be taxpayer-funded and legal throughout all three trimesters, up to partial-birth abortions. That is an extreme policy. 

    And of course, on gay marriage Republicans are extreme, right? Not really, no. Opinions on the Supreme court ruling, gay marriage, and even requiring magistrates to issue licenses are mixed, the vast majority of Americans place religious freedom as more important than gay rights, and even larger amounts support the right of wedding businesses to not perform gay weddings. Once again, the Democratic stance is more extreme.
    And immigration. Republicans are extreme, right? No. A wide majority of Americans think immigration should either be kept the same or decreased, a wide majority disagree with Obama's executive actions on immigration, virtually everyone thinks border control is an important issue to deal with. Vast majorities support tightened security and e-verify. Even Trump open to amnesty! But of course, the GOP is extreeeeme!
    And religion. Those GOPers are extreme religious freaks right? Well, no. 56% of Americans say religion is very important to them. 59% are members of a place of worship. 56% believe religion can answer all or most of today's problems. 86% believe in God. 75% believe the Bible is either the actual or inspired word of God. But of course, the party that removed God from it's platform and booed him is so much less extreme.
    And those Republicans and bigots! They only get votes from white people, right? Well, no. The racial demographics in 2014 were identical to 2008... and yet somehow the result swinged from a 7.3 percentage point Democrat win to a 5.6 percentage point GOP one. That's a 13 percentage point swing in favor of the Republicans. And Republicans won whites by 22 percentage points (as opposed to 12 percentage points in 2008) and Asians by 1 percentage point (as opposed to losing them by 27 percentage points in 2008), lost Hispanics by 22 percentage points (as compared to 32 percentage points in 2008), and lost blacks by 79 percentage points (as compared to 91 percentage points in 2008). Basically Democrats are hemorrhaging white voters like never before, and are losing ground among other minorities. You can whine about racism all you want, but it's not going to win you elections.
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  13. TN05 added a post in a topic Does this defense have the potential to be the best Carolina has ever had?   

    I'm not sure. We've had so many great defenses that it's a tough bar to cross. Our front four is not as good as 2003, and our secondary isn't as good as 2005. But on whole, we are a very solid defense. If Star, KK, and Norman take the next step and become elite, and Shaq does what we need him to, I could see this being better than 2013. The biggest question mark is defensive end. CJ is rock solid, but none of our other guys have proven to be anything special.
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  14. TN05 added a post in a topic The Republican candidate is apparently going to be chosen this weekend   

    Don't forget the unions. Big money only counts when Republicans get it
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  15. TN05 added a post in a topic Obama: If I ran again, I could win   

    And yet the Tories have governed for the past decade. :)
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