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About grimesgoat

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  1. He is due to make around 4m. Dead cap if cut is 6.4m. We are stuck with him.
  2. So.....

    I'm not suggesting Gano was overpaid or that he did not earn his salary. But the whole point of drafting Butker was to cut Gano and save 3.5mil. This was to be done on the final cuts. Gman was already gone. Hurney failed to follow through, and here we are. The 3.5m carryover and having a good kicker on a rookie salary (saving another 3-4m) could have made a difference in whether Norwell re-signs with us or moves on. You have to think ahead.
  3. The case for Billy Price....

    He's been my target for a while. Plays LG this year and then slides to C next year (assuming Kalil makes it a whole year). Then Moton can play LG in 2019. Need to address LT in the near future - perhaps with one of our thirds.
  4. So.....

    We need a GM that can look further than 1-2 weeks out. Had we kept Butker, we save 3.5m. That money then gets carried over and increases our available cap. Now we not only do not have the extra 3.5m to play with, we have to scrounge around and find 3-4 million to sign a vet kicker.
  5. Giants hire Mike Shula as OC

    Is anyone else getting uncomfortable with "wow"'s incessant stalking of Mr. Scot?
  6. Giants hire Mike Shula as OC

    I think Shula will be ok with the Giants. Isn't Shurmur supposed to be an offensive guy? If so, Shula will not play the same role he did with the Panthers. Shula's offense was always was ok, but his play calls were suspect and he struggled with in-game adjustments. Rivera's a defense guy. He needed a better offense mind to work with to balance his strengths. That's why G-man wanted Shula out and why eventually Norv was brought in. Shurmur just needs to make sure he has a good defensive coordinator.
  7. A chance that Norwell stays?

    History Reminder (not necessarily for LinvilleGorge). Shaq was drafted in 2015. At that time, TD was 32 years old, had played 11 years, and had 3 significant knee surgeries (on the same knee). The average career of an NFL LB is around 4 years. He had 1 year left on his contract and his cap hit was around 10m. Shaq was a rare talent, and would probably not last more than a handful of picks after ours. LB is probably the most important position on our defense and AJ Klein was not good enough to replace TD. In my opinion, it would be borderline malpractice not to draft Shaq at that time. A couple of months later, TD was given a 2 year extension. This was 'the last contract he planned to sign'. It would lower the 2015 cap hit and take him through 2017. I kind of wonder if Gettleman was fully on board with this or was JR meddling. 2 years later, TD is still playing at a fairly high level. Now he wants yet another contract extension. Perhaps Gman refused to do it again and JR said fine, see ya and Hurney quickly dialed up the extension. Who knows, but I think its safe to say the expectation 3 years ago was not for Shaq to play 50% of our defensive snaps plus special teams at this point.
  8. A chance that Norwell stays?

    Sportrac has us at 8.3m based on our current draft pool. I'd consider cutting Stew depending on how the draft works out. Johnson is definitely done. With those two cuts, we have about 15m in cap room. I'd try to extend R Kalil and in order to spread his hit a little. This will create a little dead money next year, but I do not want to lose my starting center. I'd draft a guy in the first 3 rounds to slide into his spot next year (or maybe a little in 2018 if Kalil get's injured again). The other guys are not worth discussion - if you cut them, you have to replace them and you really are not going to save any money. Except Horton. That dude is severely underpaid. Come on. Then I'd offer Norwell a 4 year contract for 45m (same as Trai) but with a bonus of 16m. I'd structure the annual salary at 2, 6, 9, 12. That way the cap hit is only 6m in 2018. Next year it will be 12m, but no more Kalil. In year 4, the cap hit will by 16m or I can cut him for 4m dead if he is not performing.
  9. Thanks. Good stuff. Its always risky to apply average data to individuals. According to the tackle chart - Matt Kalil is entering his prime whereas A Whitworth, who is 36, should perform like a 2nd year guy. We all know, that didn't work out exactly right last year. I can see it having some value in team building/ contract construction / drafting strategy etc. - but not very useful in deciding whether to cut a guy.
  10. NFL.com 3 Round Mock Draft

    I'd hesitate drafting a T in the first until I knew what Moton was going to be. 3rd round is a Key and Peele skit.
  11. Get back on the wall, Snow.
  12. I wasn't putting the probability of Kalil injury causing missing 10 games at 50/50. Simply pointing out prior events do not influence future events if they are truly random. As I mentioned, the probability of Kalil getting injured is probably higher than other NFL centers due to age, wear and tear, etc. However his injury last year should not increase the odds of sustaining an injury next year unless his injury last year was not by chance. Estimate the probability of missing 1 game, 2 games, 3 games, etc. given his age, position, number of games played in the league (i.e. wear and tear), bone density, etc. Do a cost analysis with this probability curve to determine if he is worth keeping for 10m or replacing for 7m (or less). It gets even more complicated given Kalil's skill level. Let's say you think Kalil will play 8 games. A first round C will cost 2m. Is an 8/8 game split of Kalil/Larsen worth 5m more than a split of 1st rounder/Larsen?
  13. I understand probability. If I flip a fair coin and it comes up heads, what are the chances I flip it again and it comes up heads again. (hint - its still 50%). My understanding is that Kalil's injury was mostly random or pure chance. Going into the season, the probability of him missing 4 games last year was maybe 25%. The probability of him missing 8 games last year was maybe 10%. These probabilities may increase slightly this year because he is a year older. But it is certainly not a given that he will miss 8 games next year because he missed 8 games in 2017. Random occurrences do not work that way.