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FBI: violent crime rates drop to historic lows


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#1 PhillyB

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Posted 12 July 2014 - 08:55 AM

read this article about how violent crimes in america have dropped to a historic low, according to the FBI.

 

i'm posting this because someone i know posted in on facebook with the following commentary:

 

of course the liberals that wrote the article ignored the fact that concealed carry permits and gun ownership is at an all-time high.

 

 

besides attributing previously inflated numbers due to drug epidemics decades ago that caused huge data swings, the criminology prof cited throughout much of the article does not mention gun ownership, instead attributing the drops to a number of sociological factors.

 

LaFree said a combination of factors – from a weak economy and an aging population to increased immigration and a more robust police presence across the country – have contributed to the drop.

“One of the responses of society is to pull together when there’s a huge crisis and a feeling of great difficulty,” LaFree said, adding that the economic climate may have contributed to this peaceful trend.

Additionally, with the current U.S. median age at 37.2 years, older than ever before, the aging population is another possible cause, LaFree said. “There is some truth to the fact that younger people commit more crimes,” he said.

“We also have a record number of immigrants, and contrary to popular belief,” LaFree said, “immigrants have lower crime rates than the rest of society.”

 

 

 

i'm curious what everyone thinks. is gun ownership a specious link here, or is lafree trying to hide something?

 

provide data with your responses and cite your sources plz



#2 Kevin Greene

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Posted 12 July 2014 - 09:47 AM

Certainly gun ownership has increased but I doubt that is a major contributor to these stats.

 

One line in the article:

 

 

 

“We also have a record number of immigrants, and contrary to popular belief,” LaFree said, “immigrants have lower crime rates than the rest of society.”

 

 

Is he just talking legal immigrants or illegal immigrants as that is an interesting claim.



#3 PhillyB

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Posted 12 July 2014 - 09:51 AM

i'm not sure, i thought that was interesting as well. i've never heard that argument surfaced before.



#4 Kevin Greene

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Posted 12 July 2014 - 10:13 AM

I suspect it is somewhat regional, obviously the rates would be skewed in a heavily Illegal Immigrant state like California versus say Vermont.



#5 pstall

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Posted 12 July 2014 - 10:22 AM

I think there are too many factors to even consider.

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#6 Panthro

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Posted 12 July 2014 - 10:22 AM

hammerheads have decreased too

#7 pstall

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Posted 12 July 2014 - 10:34 AM

This can all be traced back to banning the metal tips of lawn darts. All downhill from there.

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#8 PhillyB

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Posted 12 July 2014 - 10:34 AM

so does correlation = causation on this one?

 

or are we mired in the bog of funny graphs?

 

10258355_10204140684778256_1371690126824



#9 Kevin Greene

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Posted 12 July 2014 - 10:37 AM

Then there's six degrees of Kevin Bacon.



#10 pstall

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Posted 12 July 2014 - 10:47 AM

Never doubt Nic Cage.
I'd say #1 is police presence and technology and a better understanding of criminal trends. Its allowed police the ability to anticipate better.
Im sure the guys at freakanomics has something to say on this.

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#11 Mr. Scot

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Posted 12 July 2014 - 10:58 AM

I've continually heard people suggest that when the economy is bad / poverty is rampant, crime goes up.

 

The quote here says that in tough times, crime goes down because people 'pull together'.

 

Which is true?



#12 PhillyB

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Posted 12 July 2014 - 11:03 AM

I've continually heard people suggest that when the economy is bad / poverty is rampant, crime goes up.

 

The quote here says that in tough times, crime goes down because people 'pull together'.

 

Which is true?

 

that struck me as weird coming from a criminology professor. durkheim's strain theory still resonates pretty heavily in criminal theory so it seems odd that he'd downplay the economy.

 

i would love to see a full transcript of this guy's commentary.



#13 stirs

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Posted 12 July 2014 - 11:27 AM

This may have been where your facebook buddy got is info.

 

http://www.foxnews.c...e-claims-study/



#14 PhillyB

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Posted 12 July 2014 - 11:49 AM

This may have been where your facebook buddy got is info.

 

http://www.foxnews.c...e-claims-study/

 

possibly so, although he only posted the article i listed in the OP.

 

that fox news link as one of the finest examples of knowledge production i have ever seen, by the way. regular fox news contributor john lott starts a grassroots organization called the crime prevention research center, which is absolutely bogus and reaps contributions from people who subscribe to sites called ammoland.com, manufactures false data to appeal to its financially-lucrative supporter base, and then gets fox news to cite his organization's "findings" for a feature spread that includes highlighted john lott quotes like

 

“When you allow people to carry concealed handguns, you see changes in the behavior of criminals."

- John R. Lott, Crime Prevention Research Center

 

that provide neat ideological bytes for people to hold onto and paste into facebook or put on a bumpersticker.

 

it's no wonder otherwise intelligent people, tied so inextricably to their ideological sources and epistemologies they never consciously chose, so furiously kick and scream and reject the logics of other intelligent people whose conclusions differ from that which they think has to be true.



#15 Anybodyhome

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Posted 12 July 2014 - 12:24 PM

Lost in the mire.... the Crime Prevention Research Center is a conservative, "non-profit" lobbying group against gun control laws established simply because Obama started moving on gun control issues. Their mission statement that uses an entire paragraph citing the President's gun control efforts:

 

Mission

The Crime Prevention Research Center (CPRC) is a research and education organization dedicated to conducting academic quality research on the relationship between laws regulating the ownership or use of guns, crime, and public safety; educating the public on the results of such research; and supporting other organizations, projects, and initiatives that are organized and operated for similar purposes. It has 501©(3) status.

On January 8th, 2013, the Obama Administration met with 23 large foundations to organize a push for national gun control. They included such organizations as the Open Society Institute, the McCormick Foundation, the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation and the California Endowment. As one participant said: “There’s only one reason why you get a bunch of deep-pocketed funders on the phone.” In 2012, Mayor Michael Bloomberg donated $250 million to Johns Hopkins’ Bloomberg School of Public Health to hire new professors, many whose primary objective is to do expanding research on gun violence. President Obama has also been directing federal government funds towards gun control projects. Still other funds are being set up, such as the Fund for a Safer Future, which has $16 million to fund gun control research and is one of the many gun control projects being partially funded George Soros’ Open Society Foundation. Recently, the MacArthur foundation has also been given a large million dollar grant. The public health research being funded is very flawed (e.g., see the discussion here on Kellermann).

 

 

Founder John Lott is a Fox News columnist:

CPRC was founded by Dr. John R. Lott, Jr., an economist and a world recognized expert on guns and crime.  Lott has held research or teaching positions at various academic institutions including the University of Chicago, Yale University, the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, Stanford University, and Rice University, and was the chief economist at the United States Sentencing Commission during 1988-1989. He is currently a Fox News columnist.  He holds a Ph.D. in economics from UCLA.

Lott is a prolific author for both academic and popular publications. He has published over 100 articles in peer-reviewed academic journals and written eight books, including “More Guns, Less Crime,” “The Bias Against Guns,” and “Freedomnomics.” His most recent book is “Dumbing Down the Courts: How politics keeps the smartest judges off the bench.”

Nobel laureate Milton Friedman noted: “John Lott has few equals as a perceptive analyst of controversial public policy issues.” He has been one of the most productive and cited economists in the world (during 1969 to 2000 he ranked 26th worldwide in terms of quality adjusted total academic journal output, 4th in terms of total research output, and 86th in terms of citations). Among economics, business and law professors his research is currently the 25th most downloaded in the world. He is also a frequent writer of op-eds

 

http://crimepreventi...r.org/about-us/

 

So, again, Fox News uses itself as a source.....




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