Posted 25 September 2009 - 02:42 PM
if it comes down to the running games of each team in bburg, then VT has an advantage of playing cody and suh, and still have williams run for over 100 yards on each monster. if it dries out, well, harris likely lights vt up. also vt has an idiot for an OC, he has a few good games against quality opponents from time to so maybe we get a well called game (odds are against it though).
vt just might get their 2nd best defender back tomorrow, virgil back to probable (thank god). miami down 2 DL, but getting moncur back.
espn is calling out the lane stadium crowd "If it were a night game, this might be a different pick, but the Canes are too calm, composed and confident to let a 3:30 p.m. crowd at Lane Stadium determine the outcome. "
plus its UM, VT's #1 rival the last 10 years really (UVA has sucked most of that time).
what get me is this, the setup is all to similar to the fateful thursday nite BC game. VT is the underdog, against the top ACC ranked team, at home. they are facing the best passing O in the league, with a good defense to go along with it. but the weather looks to be a factor for alteast the early stages of the game. VT has the same awful offense but can run the ball better than their opponent, a good defense (not the 2007 level which is key tomorrow), and fans ready for this game.
i expect a low scoring game early with the weather. i still think miami wins by 6 though. if miami sells out to stop the run, esp up the middle like they did against GT, ball game, vt like gt cant pass their way out of a paper bag (unless its a guy is open by 20 yards).
idk what to expect in that game honestly. vt has been uncharacteristically bad against the run this year, but actually held up better than expected in the passing game (without virgil and harris graduating). they have not gotten the pressure i would expect (atleast consistently). they overpursue, and arnt fast (jake johnson and cody grim) at LB so far. on offense, evans who? special teams, much better so far than last years, but still could give up the big punt return.
as for miami, when did they remember how to play down there? when did they remember how to play disciplined against the run (what killed them last year)? OC is gold, QB coach has harris looking like ken dorsey. they remembered to catch the ball again.
Posted 27 September 2009 - 07:37 AM
Missouri at -7.5 against Reno-Nevada (covered)
Rutgers -2 against Maryland (covered)
FSU -14 against USF (WTF)
Boise St -17 against Bowling Green (Covered)
TCU +3 Clemson (Covered)
Washington +8 agaist Stanford (no)
Kentucky +22 against Florida(no)
Vanderbilt -7 against Rice (covered)
Cincinnati -16 against Fresno St (no)
Cal -6 against Oregon (Hell No)
Miami -3 against VT (Nope)
GT -3 against UNC (covered)
NO -6 against Buff
NYG -7 against TB
Oakland +2 against Denver
Miami +6 against SD
SF -7 against Minn (banged up AP)
Detroit +6.5 against Washington
NYJ - 3 against Tennessee
Well that is about right for me and College this year....Miss one of my solid picks, and a few tempting
I usually do two bets....one 8-10 game parlay where I had 3 teams hurt me, and about a 4 game parlay where that one team (FSU) hurt me
Posted 27 September 2009 - 07:41 AM
Posted 27 September 2009 - 08:01 AM
I quit betting on football years ago...I can't pick worth a damn.
I did an experiment last week....Just looked at the games not the spread and picked my gut on one set of parlays, the 2nd set I went through and did the normal look at the spread find out the injuries and series between the two.
I only missed one by not looking at the spread compared to 3 the other way....I think too many people over analyze and just need to go with their gut feeling.
Posted 27 September 2009 - 11:58 AM
Green Bay -7
New Orlens -6