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Playoff chances heading into tonight's game

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Carolina Panthers (6-3)

Chances of making the playoffs: 54.4 percent

Ron Rivera's team is a comfortable favorite to dispatch the Dolphins at home on Monday night, which would push the Panthers to 7-3 and leave them well-positioned to at least claim a wild-card berth. They will face the Jets after their Week 11 bye and still have home games against the Packers (who could theoretically have Aaron Rodgers back) and Buccaneers to come. FPI projects them at almost exactly 10-6, and they should be safe if they make it there.

There is a scenario in which Carolina doesn't make the postseason, though, and it involves its two crucial road games to come. The Panthers have to play at both the Saints and Falcons, and those games could be important in a three-way race to what might be only two playoff spots. Even if the Panthers finish 10-6, The New York Times simulator notes that losses to the Falcons, Saints and Vikings would leave Carolina's playoff odds right around 60 percent.

Carolina needs to win at least one of those NFC South road games, and it had better be the game in New Orleans if it wants to win the division. The Saints launched their revenge tour after an 0-2 start by stomping the Panthers in Carolina, and if the Panthers lose again on Dec. 3, they might very well be a game behind with four to go and no hope of claiming a tiebreaker over the Saints. The Panthers hold the head-to-head tiebreaker with the Falcons, and it wouldn't be a surprise if the tiebreakers conspired to turn their Week 17 rematch in Atlanta into a would-be play-in game.

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/page/Barnwellx171113/sorting-wild-nfc-playoff-field-week-10-2017-nfl-season-nine-contenders-six-spots

 

Edited by NAS

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The 54% reflects our point differential. It’s closer to a .500 team than a 6-3, soon to be 7-3. Seattle has the same record but their % was over 70 and the Saints was well over 90% even though they’ll be a half game ahead of us. We are getting healthier than Seattle and have an easier schedule but again they have a much better point differential so the look stronger to a computer.

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Actually the percentages don't make a poo. 

 

You either win games or you dont. 

 

I am all about analytics,  but this percentage stuff is stupid.  

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1 minute ago, PantherBrew said:

Actually the percentages don't make a poo. 

 

You either win games or you dont. 

 

I am all about analytics,  but this percentage stuff is stupid.  

Just win and don't worry about stupid percentages / scenarios

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I like our chances and I like our upcoming schedule. No games to sleep through, all of them matter.

I'm not ready to even surrender the division champ position yet, much less not make the wild card.

A win tonight will go a long way to getting us there.

And I wouldn't expect blow outs. There are going to be ugly wins. But ugly wins are wins, too.

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If we beat the Dolphins I think it's very very easy we make it to 10-3

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