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Saca312

"Run To Establish The Pass" And Other Rushing Advantage Stuff Is Actually A #Myth

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It may as well be Ron Rivera's motto. "Run to establish the pass." The idea is running will take pressure off the QB and open up the passing game. It's what we're led to believe, after all.

However, is this concept actually true? Does establishing the run open up the pass game?

One analyst doesn't think so. He gives his counter with evidence to substantiate.

Take a look. 

 

If you want to look at the original twitter thread, just click the above and look at the replies. Otherwise, just look below.

Explanation 1: a successful/high volume rushing game takes pressure off the QB, making it easier to pass efficiently. @NathanE11 looked at this and found it's not true http://www.hawkblogger.com/2017/09/relationship-passing-rushing.html  2/

DWGLXyFXcAMRznu.jpg

Explanation 2: Running early leads to bigger runs or passes later in the game (the "establish the run" argument) @SeanFromSeabeck looked at this and found it's not true https://www.fieldgulls.com/2018/1/3/16808842/seahawks-establish-the-run-myth-nfl-analytics  3/

DWGL8MBX0AYPORy.jpg

Explanation 3: Rushing yards are worth more than passing yards (the Pete Carroll special) I looked at this and couldn't find any evidence supporting it

Explanation 4: Teams need to run to set up play-action Again, there's no evidence that this is true http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2018/failed-completions-2017  5/

DWGMnygW0AAzbMw.jpg

So, welp @ronrivera

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All one had to do was watch this year's Super Bowl. Both teams spread the ball all over the field with some runs sprinkled in to keep the defense honest. If anything, give me an offense where the pass sets up the run.

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Just now, Cary Kollins said:

All one had to do was watch this year's Super Bowl. Both teams spread the ball all over the field with some runs sprinkled in to keep the defense honest. If anything, give me an offense where the pass sets up the run.

Immediately went right into play-action too without establishing the run. 

You don't need to establish any run to create play-action. This year's Superbowl was the best in that it showed exactly where the NFL should be in terms of offense.

Sadly, Rivera wants us to ground and pound even more than we have already and stay stuck in the 1980s.

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You know, all these analysts are entertaining, to say the least.  But I haven't seen any of them actually on the sidelines winning games at the highest level of the sport.

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The way metrics are designed are usually heavily flawed.  

Also numbers don’t lie but people lie about numbers. They tend to believe something and only go out and choose numbers or studies that support their emotional point of view. 

With that said,... I’d love to see our offense be able to pass it all over the place confidently.

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If I had some time, I am pretty sure I could put together some stats that say the exact opposite. You can always find stats to back up your viewpoint. Looking at football solely from a statistical viewpoint is not a very effective way to approach it. Just look at Cleveland. They went with the money-ball approach and won a total of 1 game in two seasons.

Running the ball effectively pulls the safety into the box. That is a fact. That opens up the middle of the field. Whether or not a team can take advantage of that depends on the team. But you have to be able to get to the second level on at least some of your running plays, or the defense will stop stacking the box. Using the entire league to get your stats does not really work, because you are lumping run first offenses in with WCO offenses, and they operate on different principles.

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24 minutes ago, JARROD said:

The way metrics are designed are usually heavily flawed.  

Also numbers don’t lie but people lie about numbers. They tend to believe something and only go out and choose numbers or studies that support their emotional point of view. 

With that said,... I’d love to see our offense be able to pass it all over the place confidently.

Numbers actually DO lie. The film don’t lie though.

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“you need to run to establish the offense” is the biggest bullshit story in modern football

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There's certainly a lot of truth in the idea the QB play is more important than an effective running game.  While everyone will point to the Eagles and the Pats success passing, I think people are losing the point of the game to game play which is that you do need some semblance of balance in your offense.

Maybe balance isn't the correct work, but rather the idea that you can hit someone for a big play from a formation by either handing the ball off or throwing it.  If you have a poo running game, no one will bite on your play action.  If you have a threatening running game (like the Eagles), then people will have to defend that play.

There is truth to pulling safety's down and getting LBs to "bite" on the action, but you also have to execute the play.

The whole thing is infinitely more complicated than the diagrams suggest.  Look at Jacksonville.  They rode their running game to the AFC Champ.  They almost beat the Pats.  In 2015, we had one of the most efficient running games, and it took us to the Super Bowl.

You need both, or at least the threat of both.  If a team sells out to shut down your running game, you have to be able to adapt and throw the ball well.  If a team is going to play coverage, you have to be able to pound the rock.

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3 minutes ago, frash.exe said:

“you need to run to establish the offense” is the biggest bullshit story in modern football

Wrong. But it works both ways depending on your gameplan. The run sets up the pass, but the pass also sets up the run. Finding the balance based on your strengths is the key.

For example, if your O-line excels at run blocking, but is weak against the pass rush, then you run the ball. This causes the d-line and the linebackers to respect the run and not go full speed to your QB. However, if the opposite is true, and you have an o-line built for pass blocking, then you use screens and short passes to pull the linebackers and safeties off the line, opening holes for the run game.

How exactly is this not common sense?

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Ron Rivera saying " we need to run the ball more" is basically him trying to mask our passing offense deficiency. Yeah passing is more effective when you can actually complete passes to open receivers that catch the ball, but when it's not working you waste plays.  Not that our running game is much better though..

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