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KB_fan

By several measures, Panthers 2017 rookie class worst in NFL

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No arguments from me but the glass half full in me says that all these guys appear to be healthy and functioning in camp.  Armah is getting involved which is a big plus.  Samuel can be good if healthy. My biggest question marks are with Elder and Hall.  Hope to see more.  

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7 minutes ago, Pejorative Miscreant said:

No arguments from me but the glass half full in me says that all these guys appear to be healthy and functioning in camp.  Armah is getting involved which is a big plus.  Samuel can be good if healthy. My biggest question marks are with Elder and Hall.  Hope to see more.  

Yes.  I'm hopeful that the 2017 rookie class will have a significant impact in 2018.  CMC, Moton & Armah all looked primed for big things, and maybe Elder & Hall too.  

The lack of impact in a rookie year isn't necessarily a bad thing as long as the players develop and contribute at some point.  KK only had an AV of 2 his rookie year, while Byron Bell had an AV of 7.

I know which player I'd rather have on the roster!!  Rookies can flame out... Others can be slow to develop and turn into studs.  

So this research is not the be all end all.  Just an attempt to show that we were very much in need of a deep rookie class with a bunch of contributors because our last few classes had been thin.

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For anyone that is twitter averse, it is a great thread filled with great info. Really worth checking out.

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2 minutes ago, Pantha-kun said:

2016 was alot worse.  Only 2 fuging years ago and only bradberry and butler are still on the roster.  Butler has been an almost complete non factor. 

This. There's still hope for last year's class, but 2016 was a definite bust overall.

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2016 gave me cancer.

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No disagreement from me with those of you saying the 2016 draft was worse. Probably in terms of the longer term it well may be. As y'all have said, at least the 2017 class still is on the roster and has a chance to contribute.

And actually the immediate impact of a "luxury" pick like Butler and the idiocy of drafting 3 corners in 2016 is pretty terrible too.  Awful. Broke our secondary and starved us of depth at positions of need, like the Oline.

I just haven't been able to crunch data for other NFL teams for any year other than 2017 yet.  So I can only objectively compare Panthers rookie class with those of other teams for 2017.

Panthers draft classes have been on a downward spiral in terms of rookies AV (roughly they're contribution to the roster) since 2015.

Hopefully the 2018 class turns things around in a big way.

Those small Gettleman draft classes were bad news in hindsight.  Kudos to all of you who said so at the time. I was trying to buy what he was selling.  But thinking you can beat the odds is hubris. Better to draft more guys. (Though dang, Panthers had a boatload of rookies in 2011, but all but Cam were failures...  So sheer numbers alone aren't the answer either!)

More in a little bit after I grab some coffee... I'll post all the tables and graphs from the Twitter thread.

Edited by KB_fan
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Too early for this proclamation . It has potential but that’s just the 2016 hangover talking. 

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Ok, now to flesh out this topic and post some of the data / research.

Thinking about how the 2018 class has the possibility to have 4-5 rookies (or more?!) who see significant playing time and can have an impact this season got me excited.  It got me wanting to look back again at recent draft history for the Panthers and the value they've gotten out of rookies IN THEIR ROOKIE SEASON.

Is it just the fact that pretty much ONLY CMC from last season contributed to the roster that made me feel like Panthers have been getting dwindling returns from rookies in recent seasons (even while throwing 2 rookie corners to the wolves to play all of 2016?)

So, I first went back and looked at each rookie class from 2011 - 2017 in terms of who we drafted, how many games they played / started, etc.  I decided to add in PFR's "AV" stat - approximate value - as well.  It takes into account snaps played, production, as well as accolades like probowl appearances.  (So, a "bad" player could have high AV if he started 16 games and played every snap.  It's not a perfect stat, but it does match well what I was trying to get at in terms of rookie CONTRIBUTION year by year).  

The tables for each year below are sorted by AV, with those players having the highest AV each year at the top.

 

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The small size of the 2015-2017 Panthers rookie classes is fairly noticeable... (though there were several more rookie UDFAs, like Damiere Byrd, who landed on the PS and then made the roster in later years.)

Here are some graphs that show the data better:

621673037_Rookies-rosterstarterssince2011.png.17961439e9ffe8e3fe4b86cc94ed5a0d.png

Number of rookies making the roster each season, and those starting 1 or more games each year.

This graph doesn't show the number of rookies selected each year (draft or UDFA), nor does it include any who were cut or sent to IR.  Only those who made the 53 man roster.

Note, this is TRUE rookies, drafted or undrafted, in their 1st year.  It doesn't count any player who may have bounced around a practice squad for a few years before coming in with 0 experience and starting their first games. So for instance, Damiere Byrd and Tyler Larsen don't show up in these lists or stats anywhere.

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Here's a closer look at the AV value of Panthers rookie classes over the past 7 years:

756680269_RookiesAV3(bar).png.0b982ae89eea1a7238770e535a5b203c.png

This graph is somewhat similar to the above, but instead of showing rookies on the roster and those starting 1+ games, it shows rookies on the roster and the number of rookies who had an AV of 3 or better in their rookie season.

Here's the avg AV per Panthers rookie over the past 7 draft classes.  Of course Cam and Luke in 2011 & 2012 skew things a bit.  If you're picking high, you have a better chance of getting rookies who will have high AV their rookie year...

1406269054_rookiesAV3.png.fe3b34006a8c27af40341980a90b576b.png

That's one of the things that's troubling in terms of the 2017 rookie class.  Panthers were drafting the highest they had in years.  You need to get value from that kind of class.  Now CMC DID contribute.  His rookie AV (9) was the same as that of Luke...  So, great for 1st round.  But we need more contributors from that class.

Hopefully Moton, Samuel and even Hall or Elder will have an impact in 2018.

 

 

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