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KB_fan

Preseason review to date: Snaps & Stats, position by position

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I'm curious to see how snap counts for various players have changed over the past 2 weeks, and how production relates to snap counts.  I'll be posting a series of tables tonight and tomorrow looking at each position group.

This is for games 1 & 2 of the preseason.

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1st position group I've finished is the O line.  Here are the snap counts for each player on the O line for the past 2 weeks.

1858773302_Olinesnapscomp.png.a654be5cd6c6109eba0143ef546577b5.png

 

Comments:

1. I didn't realize Kyle Friend had gotten as much playing time as he has.  This should make Jeremy happy!  At least our coaches are giving him a good look...

2. What's up with Blaine Clausell??  Why did his snaps decrease so dramatically from week 1 to week 2?  Was he injured in week 2 at all?  Has his play been awful?

3. The position designations are a bit arbitrary.  I'm not sure how many snaps for different players came at G, T, or C.  For instance, although Dorian Johnson is listed as a Guard, he got playing time at LT in game 2...  ideally it would be nice to know the number of snaps each player took at each position on the O line, but I don't have easy access to that data.  If anyone wants to provide more info on the splits in terms of the players who are moving around on the line, that would be helpful.

4. It seems too early / impossible to draw any clear conclusions from the snap data as to which of these players is likely to make the roster as backups / depth.   At this point starters seem likely to be:

Moton / Turner / R Kalil / (Van Roten) / M Kalil

Larsen is a sure lock as back up to R Kalil

Daryl Williams & Amini Silatolu's injury prognosis will affect things a lot, as will the game 3 snaps vs. the Patriots.

I'd still bet on Sirles and Mahon as probable depth pieces.  Unsure about tackle depth though....

 

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Here are the comparisons for snap counts among the QBs:

1707751334_QBsnapscomp.png.a0768e5bab7ac20ddff85e11ba6f320a.png

 

Comments:

I didn't realize Heinicke had led in snaps so greatly over Gilbert in both week 1 and week 2.  Hard to know if that means anything,  It could be that with Gilbert having spent a year with the Panthers the team has a better idea of what they have in him, and they want to see more of Heinicke.  

Thoughts?

I'll post the comparative QB passing data for both games in just a few minutes.

Edited by KB_fan

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Gilbert had the more meaningful snaps week 1 while Heineken had the more meaningful snaps week 2. Neither has impressed all that much to be honest...

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Here's a closer look at the QB data from the gamebooks for week 1 & week 2 and then combined averages:

920891633_Qbdatacomp.thumb.png.a4568b60765ffcf96f0617f18ded3f12.png

 

Comments:

1)  I find the differing pass attempt % for the QBs quite interesting.  This is a stat I calculated (Pass attempts / Snaps).  For both games Newton passed on at least 50% of his snaps.  Gilbert had a high passing attempt % in week 1, but then a low passing % in week 2 (perhaps a function of the score / when he was playing in the game).  But Heinicke has not had a pass attempt % above 36% in either game.   Is that significant?  Does it say anything about his comfort reading the field?

2) Newton & Gilbert's completion % improved from week 1 to week 2.  Heinicke's declined.

3) Heinicke has led every week in average yards / attempt and yards / completion.  He's passing fewer times, but going for longer passes, it seems.

Thoughts??

 

Note: I assume it's obvious, but the above only represents passing data.  It might be fun to try to calculate total offensive yards when each QB was in the game, but I won't have time for that tonight.  Not even sure where to find that data (i.e. rushing yards with each QB in the game...)

Edited by KB_fan
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I'd feel better with Gilbert as backup. I think he could do okay managing a game or two. Heinicke strikes me as a bit of a gunslinger and it's higher risk/reward with him. Not really something I want in a backup unless he's the heir apparent and I don't think either of these qualify for that role.

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Here are the snap comparisons for the RBs (also including FB Alex Armah):

454315819_RBsnapscomp.png.97e2fa0ad09ea9dc88e227d3ee2f17f4.png

Comments:

There's not too much to remark on here in terms of snap numbers.  Apart from the slight decrease in snaps for Hood and Bonnafon from week 1 to week 2 the snap percentages have stayed pretty consistent for each player.

Obviously the coaches want to see what CAP can do.  Does his high snap total indicate he's in the lead for RB3 or just that coaches want to evaluate him?  

 

For the Running Backs, Special Team snaps may play a role in terms of who makes the roster.  Here's t he breakdown of the RB ST snaps:

788354124_RBsnaps-STcomp.png.be82a4369538db96cb9159d068e58ea4.png

CAP saw a jump in ST snaps from week 1 to week 2.  

But I still don't see anything here to permit drawing conclusions yet about chances to make the roster for CAP / Barner / Hood.

Maybe a closer look at their production will help.  I'll post that next....

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Ok, here's a look at RB production data for preseason weeks 1 & 2.  Instead of looking at week to week, I've compiled rushing and reception stats and total yards for both weeks:

102906815_RBdatacomp.png.e1a53e18778fea61da045a41d6c06813.png

The table above is sorted by the blue column near the right edge, a statistic I've compiled of yards per touch or target.  (Total Yards / Total Touches & Targets (i.e. rushing attempts & pass targets).)

Barner & CMC lead the team so far with an average of 10 yards per touch / target

Also of interest to me is the far right column.  On what % of their total snaps played is the player getting a touch or target. 

Hood has been targeted on 7 of his 8 snaps - 88%. 

CMC and Barner are getting touches/targets on about 50-60% of their snaps.

CJ Anderson is getting a touch / target on 43% of his snaps.

CAP is at 35%.

Does this data shed any light on the race for RB3?   CAP's rushing yards per attempt are looking pretty poor in comparison with Barner's, for instance.  But I'd have to go back and watch the situations in which they're being used and what defense they're up against (1st or 2nd team vs. 3rd or 4th team).

 

 

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Depending on how much longer I can stay awake, I'll try to post TE & WR data tonight.  Won't get to data for the defense until tomorrow night at the earliest.

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Although I enjoy all the hard work you have done I would love to see the grades on the secondary, offensive and defensive linemen.

 

I would love to see how well guys like Gaulden, Jackson, Haynes, Hall and our offensive line have done. The thing is they do a lot of important parts of the game that doesn’t show up in the stat sheet. So the only way to see how well they have played is through grades and ratings by other sites.

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I don't have any subscriptions to premium data or PFF grades, so I'm afraid I can't help you in terms of player grades, etc. 

I'm mostly just looking at playing time (snaps) and production (game book data) - i.e. who is making the most of their opportunities.  

For some positions that's easier to do than others.  E.G. there are stats for WRs, RBs, and defensive players (sacks, passes defended, INTs, FFs, tackles, etc.)

For O line obviously you need other ways to evaluate, and I'm not qualified to do that.

Here are the top PFF grades on Offense & Defense for yesterday's game:

 

Not sure how CMC is not ranked in the top 5 offensive players, TBH..... !!!

Matt Kalil was the worst-ranked Panthers player on the offense:

 

Here are the top graded players on defense:

 

 

 

 

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Here's the snap data for TEs so far this preseason:

1389188974_TEsnapscomp.thumb.png.250e2b18e924c3b48a403ce76c6dffa1.png

Comments:

1.  WOW, look at Ian Thomas.  He's played nearly 60% of all offensive snaps - more than double any other TE on the roster.  Baptism by fire.  I wonder if he's played the most snaps of any Panthers rookie.... I'll look at that later.

2. Obviously with Vander Laan not playing in game 2, Baylis' snaps increased. Baylis does not yet have any receiving targets.  Thomas is ahead of even Olsen in TE passing targets and receptions.

(I'll post that data tomorrow).

Hard to predict what will happen with TE 3.  With Manhertz still on the PUP and Vander Laan out with an unspecified injury it may come down to who is healthy come week 1!

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Lastly for tonight:  WR snap data -

182637801_WRsnapscomp.png.5323c06a6d75aa8f30be13cb6f5dea4f.png

Comments:

1. No surprise to see Moore & Samuel leading in total snaps so far among the WR corps.  These are guys who will benefit from as many reps as we can throw them.

2. Interesting to see Frazier's snaps increase.  Obvious Gilbert's TD pass to him in week 1 was a thing of beauty, and he has experience with the team from last season.  If he still has PS eligibility, he could make a case.

3.  Curious about Jamaal Jones.  I know very little about him.  He's leading the WRs in ST snaps.  Can anyone tell me what phases he's playing / what his role is?  Could he make a case for the PS?

 

I'll post WR receiving data tomorrow along with data on snaps & stats for the defense.  Long past my bedtime here....!

Edited by KB_fan
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Surprised there's so little discussion on any of the comments / questions I've posed for the offensive position groups.

I KNOW it's only been 2 preseason games, and thus this data is of limited worth, but at least I find the trends in snaps sometimes revealing, and some player stats are surprising ( i.e. Barner's awesome YPC numbers so far).

Perhaps it's justtoo much info / eye-glazing?

I'll be back at home and in front of my laptop later today... More WR data and then defensive position data coming in a few hours.

Hope it's at least of some interest! But even if I'm just doing it for myself, I'm enjoying it!

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Ok, I'm back to number crunching and will start posting data for the DEFENSE soon... but first the unfinished business from last night.  Here is the combined receiving data for Preseason Games 1 & 2.  This includes all WRs, and also the TEs and RBs who have had passing targets.

2137126790_WRTEdatacomp.png.b6a0ef9138823997f9b31e090fedcd1d.png

 

The colors for the names indicates the position played:  blue for WR, beige for TE, purple for RB.  I included Armah with the TEs...

The table is sorted in descending order by % of targets, that is, of the 55 total passes thrown in these 2 games, what % of targets went to a particular player.

As you can see, just over 50% of passing targets have gone to 4 players:  Moore, Samuel, CMC & Ian Thomas.  Clearly the focus is on getting these guys acclimated to this offense.  Moore & Thomas are obviously rookies.  Samuel had limited playing time last year due to injuries.  CMC is a crucial piece of the offense...

Not counting Fred Ross who is not listed as was injured and didn't play in either game (and was just waived), all the WRs but 2 have been targeted in the passing game.  Neither Bailey or Howard have yet had a passing target.

I was struck by Samuel & Moore's avg yards per reception.  Very nice.  They can definitely help the team if they can keep up this kind of explosiveness.   

CMC's & Samuel's completion % are both impressive at 86%.

Moore's lower completion % is not necessarily his fault.  The passing game was stuggling with the 1st team offense in game 2...

What strikes you all from this data?

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