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If we don't take a WR with our first pick..


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#46 chbright

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Posted 15 January 2010 - 12:18 PM

Nobody wants him, but Mike Williams will be a steal.


in the 6th round. someone, likely the raiders, vikes, balt, or bungles, will take a gamble on him. some teams with less needs will value him more, as if he pans out its a hug boost, if not still a strong team.

he is an absolute stud, but can we afford the risk at WR at this point. now if its the 6th and he is still there, F' it, take a risk and hope it pans out, b/c i doubt anyone left after the 4th will have the upside williams has, but quitting the team this year, being out in 08 b/c of classes is scary.

#47 Lout

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Posted 15 January 2010 - 02:32 PM

Let's take a look at the most recent drafts at the WR position.. I can't find any WRs that were picked in the 3rd round other than Steve Smith that are #1 WR quality.. in the past 10 years. We must pick a WR in the 2nd round to have any decent chance of success at the WR position.. the chances of finding a good WR drop off dramatically after the 2nd round.

http://www.nfl.com/d...R&type=position

Looking at this just makes you appreciate the friggin steal that Steve Smith was..

Edited by Lout, 15 January 2010 - 02:36 PM.


#48 Samuel L. Jackson

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Posted 15 January 2010 - 03:25 PM

Mike Wallace, Early Doucet, Mario Manningham, Josh Morgan, Pierre Garcon, James Jones, Steve Breaston, Chansi Stuckey, Jason Avant, Brandon Marshall, Domenik Hixon, Devin Aromashodu, Marques Colston, Chris Henry, Bernard Berrian, Jerricho Cotchery, Patrick Crayton, Nate Burleson, Kevin Curtis, Brandon Lloyd, Bobby Wade, Justin Gage, Kevin Walter, T.J. Houshmanzadeh, Lavernues Coles, and Darrell Jackson among others all beg to differ...

#49 Lout

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Posted 15 January 2010 - 03:51 PM

Mike Wallace, Early Doucet, Mario Manningham, Josh Morgan, Pierre Garcon, James Jones, Steve Breaston, Chansi Stuckey, Jason Avant, Brandon Marshall, Domenik Hixon, Devin Aromashodu, Marques Colston, Chris Henry, Bernard Berrian, Jerricho Cotchery, Patrick Crayton, Nate Burleson, Kevin Curtis, Brandon Lloyd, Bobby Wade, Justin Gage, Kevin Walter, T.J. Houshmanzadeh, Lavernues Coles, and Darrell Jackson among others all beg to differ...


I think you misread my post.

I said, "the chances of finding a #1 WR fall of dramatically after the 2nd round", which is true.

Obviously you can find good WRs in the later rounds.. I never said you couldn't, but look at the odds. They drop off significantly after the 2nd round. Only two of the WRs you listed are #1 caliber WRs.

Edited by Lout, 15 January 2010 - 04:08 PM.


#50 Samuel L. Jackson

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Posted 15 January 2010 - 04:08 PM

You didn't read my post very closely.

"I can't find any WRs that were picked in the 3rd round other than Steve Smith that are #1 WR quality"

And I said, "the chances of finding a #1 WR fall of dramatically after the 2nd round", which is true.

Of all the WRs you listed there are only 3 current #1 WRs in that list. So I don't know what you are "differing" from me on, you just proved my point.

Obviously you can find good WRs in the later rounds.. I never said you couldn't put look at the odds. They drop off significantly after the 2nd round.


I was just saying you could find very good talent at later levels, and you don't have to absolutely take a WR in the 2nd round... We don't need a possible #1 talent because we have Smitty, and I would take a solid #2 any day of the week... There are plenty examples of those in the 3rd and later...

The chances of drafting a #1 at any position fall off dramatically after the 2nd round... So attributing it to a WR thing is kind of not making a point... I'd be happy with a lot of the later round WRs in this draft, because it's a deep class and we could find a solid #2...

#51 chbright

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Posted 15 January 2010 - 04:13 PM

You didn't read my post very closely.

"I can't find any WRs that were picked in the 3rd round other than Steve Smith that are #1 WR quality"

And I said, "the chances of finding a #1 WR fall of dramatically after the 2nd round", which is true.

Of all the WRs you listed there are only 3 current #1 WRs in that list. So I don't know what you are "differing" from me on, you just proved my point.

Obviously you can find good WRs in the later rounds.. I never said you couldn't put look at the odds. They drop off significantly after the 2nd round.


lol some are blocked from being #1s by guys better than smith. idk, but i would say Andre johnson, and fitz trump smith. i mean those are 2 of the 3 best wrs in the league (other is megatron). as does a guy on the list in brandon marshall. is it really fair to knock them that for not being #1s with 2 of the 3 best in the league ahead of them?

#2 all the guys listed are better than anyone we drafted the past 5-10 years at WR not named steve smith. and 1 is currently better (marshall). i would take any one of those guy over colbert or DJ any day of the week. colston and TJ were what 6th and 7th round picks? the return on value is unheard of and you can still find great #2s and #1s well past the 2nd round.

we are lucky we even got smith with the rest of the no shows the last 10 years.

#52 Lout

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Posted 15 January 2010 - 04:36 PM

My point is this.. If WR is our biggest need, we can not afford to gamble on the pick as the success rate is poor. We need to address it in the 2nd round, and I think I have made my point very clear. Obviously, there are good WRs to be had in the later rounds, but the success rate is less than 5% in rounds 4-7.. and it is just wishful thinking to say we are going to find a starter later in the draft at the WR position.

I have Starting caliber WRs in Bold. 5/35 WRs fall into the "starter" category, which is a 14% success rate. I don't feel you can look past 3 years to get a good feel on if a WR is starter caliber or not.. that's why I did not include 08-09 drafts.

2000 Draft
3 66 Ron Dugans WR Florida State Cincinnati Bengals
3 69 Dez White WR Georgia Tech Chicago Bears
3 70 Chris Cole WR Texas A&M Denver Broncos
3 73 Ron Dixon WR Lambuth New York Giants
3 78 Laveranues Coles WR Florida State New York Jets
3 79 JaJuan Dawson WR Tulane Cleveland Browns
3 80 Darrell Jackson WR Florida Seattle Seahawks

2001 Draft
3 74 Steve Smith WR Utah Carolina Panthers
3 77 Snoop Minnis WR Florida State Kansas City Chiefs

2002 Draft
3 86 Marquise Walker WR Michigan Tampa Bay Buccaneers
3 87 Cliff Russell WR Utah Washington Redskins
3 95 Eric Crouch WR Nebraska St. Louis Rams

2003 Draft
3 65 Kelley Washington WR Tennessee Cincinnati Bengals
3 71 Nate Burleson WR Nevada-Reno Minnesota Vikings
3 74 Kevin Curtis WR Utah State St. Louis Rams
3 95 Billy McMullen WR Virginia Philadelphia Eagles

2004 Draft
3 77 Derrick Hamilton WR Clemson San Francisco 49ers
3 78 Bernard Berrian WR Fresno State Chicago Bears
3 82 Devard Darling WR Washington State Baltimore Ravens

2005 Draft
3 68 Courtney Roby WR Indiana Tennessee Titans
3 83 Chris Henry WR West Virginia Cincinnati Bengals
3 96 Brandon Jones WR Oklahoma Tennessee Titans

2006 Draft
3 78 Travis Wilson WR Oklahoma Cleveland Browns
3 82 Derek Hagan WR Arizona State Miami Dolphins
3 84 Brandon Williams WR Wisconsin San Francisco 49ers
3 90 Maurice Stovall WR Notre Dame Tampa Bay Buccaneers
3 95 Willie Reid WR Florida State Pittsburgh Steelers

2007 Draft
3 73 Jacoby Jones WR Lane Houston Texans
3 74 Yamon Figurs WR Kansas State Baltimore Ravens
3 75 Laurent Robinson WR Illinois State Atlanta Falcons
3 76 Jason Hill WR Washington State San Francisco 49ers
3 78 James Jones WR San Jose State Green Bay Packers
3 79 Mike Walker WR Central Florida Jacksonville Jaguars
3 80 Paul Williams WR Fresno State Tennessee Titans
3 99 Johnnie Lee Higgins WR Texas-El Paso Oakland Raiders

Edited by Lout, 15 January 2010 - 04:46 PM.


#53 AggieLean.

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Posted 15 January 2010 - 11:09 PM

I like Briscoe and Thomas. We draft either one of those two WR's with our first pick and I'd be a happy camper.

#54 SorthNarolina

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Posted 16 January 2010 - 01:42 AM

I would rather have a defensive tackle than a WR. Unless DT is very deep and WR is very shallow, I would rather have a DT with the first pick.

#55 Lout

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Posted 16 January 2010 - 12:26 PM

I would rather have a defensive tackle than a WR. Unless DT is very deep and WR is very shallow, I would rather have a DT with the first pick.


DT is very shallow this year. But, I don't think DT is our greatest need because we have already traded a 6th rounder to the chiefs for Tank Tyler, also got Leonard via waivers.. not to mention Kemo will be back.

#56 trueblue

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Posted 18 January 2010 - 09:53 AM

My point is this.. If WR is our biggest need, we can not afford to gamble on the pick as the success rate is poor. We need to address it in the 2nd round, and I think I have made my point very clear. Obviously, there are good WRs to be had in the later rounds, but the success rate is less than 5% in rounds 4-7.. and it is just wishful thinking to say we are going to find a starter later in the draft at the WR position.

I have Starting caliber WRs in Bold. 5/35 WRs fall into the "starter" category, which is a 14% success rate. I don't feel you can look past 3 years to get a good feel on if a WR is starter caliber or not.. that's why I did not include 08-09 drafts.

2007 Draft
3 73 Jacoby Jones WR Lane Houston Texans
3 74 Yamon Figurs WR Kansas State Baltimore Ravens
3 75 Laurent Robinson WR Illinois State Atlanta Falcons
3 76 Jason Hill WR Washington State San Francisco 49ers
3 78 James Jones WR San Jose State Green Bay Packers
3 79 Mike Walker WR Central Florida Jacksonville Jaguars
3 80 Paul Williams WR Fresno State Tennessee Titans
3 99 Johnnie Lee Higgins WR Texas-El Paso Oakland Raiders


Mike Sims Walker is the best WR on the Jags (take that for what it is worth).. And Laurent Robinson was starting for the Rams before he got hurt.

Drafting is the wrong answer for this team. This is a decent year for FA WR's

#57 scpanther22

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Posted 18 January 2010 - 10:55 AM

DT is very shallow this year. But, I don't think DT is our greatest need because we have already traded a 6th rounder to the chiefs for Tank Tyler, also got Leonard via waivers.. not to mention Kemo will be back.


Most people have been saying its a deep class of DT.But We traded for Tyler and Leonard.5th and 6th rounders.

#58 Lout

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Posted 18 January 2010 - 05:31 PM

Most people have been saying its a deep class of DT.But We traded for Tyler and Leonard.5th and 6th rounders.


All of the depth is at the top of the draft (out of our reach).. so after the 1st round.. DT is not deep at all. There will be 5 DTs taken before we pick in the 2nd round.

1. Suh (Nebraska)
2. McCoy (Oklahoma)
3. Dan Williams (Tenn)
4. Cody (Bama')
5. Odrick (Penn St)

There will be one other 2nd round DT, Lamarr Houston from Texas.

Edited by Lout, 18 January 2010 - 05:44 PM.


#59 kdrh5

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Posted 18 January 2010 - 11:51 PM

No one knows where any of these guys will be drafted or how many of any position will be drafted in what round. When has the draft EVER went as expected? We should sign a WR and D-lineman in FA and just draft the best player available.

Actually, they ought to draft a TE with the first pick, just to piss every Mel Kiper off.

#60 SorthNarolina

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Posted 19 January 2010 - 12:34 AM

DT is very shallow this year. But, I don't think DT is our greatest need because we have already traded a 6th rounder to the chiefs for Tank Tyler, also got Leonard via waivers.. not to mention Kemo will be back.


I honestly don't know if he will. We did suffer without him, but he's not really the greatest nose tackle. He solid at the point of attack but doesn't really get much penetration and definatley no pass rush. Old guys like Ted Washington(when he was playing), Pat Williams, and even Hollis Thomas have looked better than he has. If your going to be one demensional your strengths need to be all that more special, and his aren't.

You add in the fact the he doesn't fit in Meek's system and he's coming off of an injury that big men are spotty on. It might be best to let him go or work out an injury settlement.

I'd like to think we'd make the cold blooded decision but it's not like our FO to make the tough choices.

I say if there's no salary cap we should absorb the penalty and let him go.


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