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The Smokescreen Theory


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#1 methodtoll

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Posted 18 March 2010 - 08:11 AM

So I hear this term a lot, "Oh it's a smokescreen people, they are really looking at this player" and while some may think this theory is true, I am one to believe that there is no such thing as a so called, "smokescreen"

In fact, every team has a list of players each year that they are "very interested" in. They rank every player and they attend their Pro Days. I am sure every team has some sort of talks with the player but remember that it does not mean a thing.

Also, keep in mind, that most of the time there are more then just one player at a Pro Day (unless it's a school that doesn't really have anyone coming out) so it could be that they weren't just there to see a paticular player but more of players in general.

Again, no smokescreen, they are doing what every other team is doing, which is observing and determining who should and should not move up their draft boards.

Edited by methodtoll, 18 March 2010 - 08:13 AM.


#2 CharlotteBeer.com

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Posted 18 March 2010 - 08:17 AM

I agree. People on here act like we never go after those players we're seemingly interested in, but that's not the case. It would be impossible to draft all of the players they look at.

#3 Lout

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Posted 18 March 2010 - 09:02 AM

You lost me when you said you don't believe in smokescreens.. Team's try to throw off other team's all the time. All team's try to convey mystery to their draft board.. they have to hide their cards, and play with their best poker face.

#4 methodtoll

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Posted 18 March 2010 - 09:12 AM

You lost me when you said you don't believe in smokescreens.. Team's try to throw off other team's all the time. All team's try to convey mystery to their draft board.. they have to hide their cards, and play with their best poker face.


It's not like they are discussing it with other teams. Again, smokescreens is a theory.

#5 panthers55

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Posted 18 March 2010 - 09:35 AM

From what I can remember from the past 4 or 5 years, particularly our first round pick, we did not bring in any of these guys in for a private workout nor were we linked to that player either through the media or a draft report. While that may not be a smoke screen, it surely wasn't totally expected not did we signal who we were iterested in.

#6 bleys

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Posted 18 March 2010 - 10:39 AM

From what I can remember from the past 4 or 5 years, particularly our first round pick, we did not bring in any of these guys in for a private workout nor were we linked to that player either through the media or a draft report. While that may not be a smoke screen, it surely wasn't totally expected not did we signal who we were iterested in.


I get methodtoll's point.. however there is truth to the smokescreen theory. there is a balance of truth in both points..

#7 Lout

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Posted 18 March 2010 - 10:47 AM

It's not like they are discussing it with other teams. Again, smokescreens is a theory.


Of course we aren't discussing our interests with other teams.. but we sure take notice if another team is showing interest in someone high on our draft board. Let's say we want The Golden Calf of Bristol in the 2nd round.. and we notice that 3 team's ahead of us in the 2nd round are heavily scouting The Golden Calf of Bristol.. we might want to trade up a few spots to get him, depending on how much we like him. The point is, other team's take notice when you show interest in a prospect that they highly covet.

#8 methodtoll

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Posted 18 March 2010 - 10:51 AM

Of course we aren't discussing our interests with other teams.. but we sure take notice if another team is showing interest in someone high on our draft board. Let's say we want The Golden Calf of Bristol in the 2nd round.. and we notice that 3 team's ahead of us in the 2nd round are heavily scouting The Golden Calf of Bristol.. we might want to trade up a few spots to get him, depending on how much we like him. The point is, other team's take notice when you show interest in a prospect that they highly covet.


As I stated earlier, using the a The Golden Calf of Bristol example, every team has some sort interest in him, every team talks to him... Nothing unusual about that. Again, it just depends on where a team ranks him on their board.

#9 panthers55

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Posted 18 March 2010 - 11:02 AM

As I stated earlier, using the a The Golden Calf of Bristol example, every team has some sort interest in him, every team talks to him... Nothing unusual about that. Again, it just depends on where a team ranks him on their board.


While I really don't know that we bring in guys just to throw off the competition, I am sure we sometimes don't bring in guys we are high on so we don't tip our hand as well. To assume that there isn't some bluffing and smoke screening going on is naive at best. This is a very competitive business and gamesmanship is a big part of it. If Fox and Hurney won't even tell you who the starting quarterback will be for fear of giving the other team an edge, you can bet they keep their picks close to the vest and avoid signaling who they really want or how everyone ranks on their draft board.

#10 Lout

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Posted 18 March 2010 - 11:15 AM

As I stated earlier, using the a The Golden Calf of Bristol example, every team has some sort interest in him, every team talks to him... Nothing unusual about that. Again, it just depends on where a team ranks him on their board.


Was The Golden Calf of Bristol a bad example? How about Joe Schmo? Not everybody has interest in him. You are ignoring my premise.