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NFC Scout on Gabbert


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#145 rayzor

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Posted 13 January 2011 - 05:53 PM

i'm almost done with trying to convince people we should really be drafting our own talent at QB, i mean this is the same forum that told me Josh McCown was the future here, and now for some people Billy Volek is "The guy".... he's f**king terrible, stop deluding yourselves.

naturally the one year we have the top pick and need a QB badly there isn't a good harvest of QBs to choose from. If we had a 2nd round pick it would be easier, and I'm starting to think maybe we trade Smith for a 2nd, get Green no.1 and pick Mallett or Stanzi, or Gabbert if he is there, and if we have a good QB coach to refine the mechanics and an offensive system that makes a QB produce, we're set. Either that or get one of those mind erasers from men in black and flash it in front of Clausen because he needs to forget everything he learned from Scherer this year and start over.

getting back into the 2nd round is going to be key to having a successful draft, imo. that is a much better place to draft a QB, imo. won't have to reach from there. still not loving the choices, but if we are going to draft one, i'd rather it be in the 2nd. i just wouldn't feel so bad if it's another wasted pick.

#146 Urrymonster

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Posted 13 January 2011 - 05:57 PM

kinda depends who ends up in the 3rd but a QB falling that far has some serious issues I think.


Well this draft just gone had the 3rd/4th rated Qb fall there in Colt McCoy. He showed some flash in the Browns offense.

I think with more QB friendly passing games, some less talented QBs are looking pretty good.

There aren't a huge amount of teams needing that superstar QB to start from day 1 any more so teams are focusing on other positions first. There was a run in 2008 & '09 on QBs early and most of those guys are still starting.

There are around 4-5 fairly well regarded QBs at the moment, so likely one will slip to the late 2nd or early 3rd.

#147 mav1234

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Posted 13 January 2011 - 06:11 PM

Well this draft just gone had the 3rd/4th rated Qb fall there in Colt McCoy. He showed some flash in the Browns offense.

I think with more QB friendly passing games, some less talented QBs are looking pretty good.

There aren't a huge amount of teams needing that superstar QB to start from day 1 any more so teams are focusing on other positions first. There was a run in 2008 & '09 on QBs early and most of those guys are still starting.

There are around 4-5 fairly well regarded QBs at the moment, so likely one will slip to the late 2nd or early 3rd.


I dunno I could easily see the top 4/5 going in the first round and a half, but there are some decent prospects out of those who remain, so we'll see.

#148 pantherj

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Posted 13 January 2011 - 06:15 PM

I always wanted us to have a QB whose middle name was f*cking.

#149 ammofan

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Posted 13 January 2011 - 06:29 PM

they also said Jimmy Clausen was the most pro ready guy......or some did....

They were wrong!!!

#150 Urrymonster

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Posted 13 January 2011 - 06:43 PM

I dunno I could easily see the top 4/5 going in the first round and a half, but there are some decent prospects out of those who remain, so we'll see.


11 teams have a 'franchise' QB - will not pick one early
5 teams have spent a 1st rounder in the last two years - will not pick early
7 teams have a decent and consistent vet - will not pick early
1 team has a young rookie who played well - will not pick early
1 team has a young borderline QB - could pick early
1 team has an over achieving vet - likely to pick early
6 teams have no established starters - will pick early

Essentially the questions to be asked are:

* Will Miami stick with Henne another year with a new OC?
* Did Gailey think enough of Fitzpatrick to keep him as their starter?

As there are only really 6 teams that need to pick in the top two rounds, they will be safe in the knowledge that they can pick another thinner position (relative, I think the QB class is weaker but more at a similar level) in round 1, then go QB in round 2.

Since 2006 there has been an average of:
* 2.4 draft in the 1st
* 1.8 drafted in the 2nd
* 1 drafted in the 3rd

Since 2006 there has never been more than 3 QBs drafted in the 1st round and never more than 5 taken in the first 2 rounds.

So on average we should expect either the 4th or 5th best QB to be available at the top of the 3rd. There are on average 11.25 QBs picked in the draft since 2006.

Edited by Urrymonster, 13 January 2011 - 06:52 PM.


#151 TheRealDeal

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Posted 13 January 2011 - 06:47 PM

11 teams have an elite QB - will not pick one early
5 teams have spent a 1st rounder in the last two years - will not pick early
7 teams have a decent and consistent vet - will not pick early
1 team has a young rookie who played well - will not pick early
1 team has a young borderline QB - could pick early
1 team has an over achieving vet - likely to pick early
6 teams have no established starters - will pick early

Essentially the questions to be asked are:

* Will Miami stick with Henne another year with a new OC?
* Did Gailey think enough of Fitzpatrick to keep him as their starter?

As there are only really 6 teams that need to pick in the top two rounds, they will be safe in the knowledge that they can pick another thinner position (relative, I think the QB class is weaker but more at a similar level) in round 1, then go QB in round 2.

Since 2006 there has been an average of:
* 2.4 draft in the 1st
* 1.8 drafted in the 2nd
* 1 drafted in the 3rd

Since 2006 there has never been more than 3 QBs drafted in the 1st round and never more than 5 taken in the first 2 rounds.

So on average we should expect either the 4th or 5th best QB to be available at the top of the 3rd. There are on average 11.25 QBs picked in the draft since 2006.


I think having 11 elite QBs in the league is an overstatement and misuse of the word.

#152 Urrymonster

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Posted 13 January 2011 - 06:51 PM

I think having 11 elite QBs in the league is an overstatement and misuse of the word.


Misuse of the word really. Essentially I meant, players who are considered 'franchise' QBs and are playing well. Just needed a shorter way of saying it.

You really do pick on tiny things people say rather than thinking about the overall content.

#153 mav1234

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Posted 13 January 2011 - 06:54 PM

If 5 QBs are drafted in the first 2 rounds we're already out of all decent projected prospects and knee deep into a great of people who have a lot of unknowns, barring combine workouts.

There's really only a "top 4 QB prospects" in this draft. There's a dropoff after that.

I should have said "I could see all 4 going in the first/second round", rather than the top 5, because I'm not sold who that fifth is exactly, haha.

#154 Urrymonster

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Posted 13 January 2011 - 07:05 PM

If 5 QBs are drafted in the first 2 rounds we're already out of all decent projected prospects and knee deep into a great of people who have a lot of unknowns, barring combine workouts.

There's really only a "top 4 QB prospects" in this draft. There's a dropoff after that.

I should have said "I could see all 4 going in the first/second round", rather than the top 5, because I'm not sold who that fifth is exactly, haha.


Well if 5 are picked in the first two rounds, then that is beyond the averages. Usually at the start of the third round the 4th or 5th QB is picked.

Of the declared players Gabbert, Locker and Mallett are considered 1st round prospects. Cam Newton would likely slide in there as well, or early 2nd.

In 2010 Bradford, Clausen 1st round, The Golden Calf of Bristol and McCoy rated as 1st-2nd round QB prospects, Pike 2-3rd round.

In 2009 Stafford, Sanchez and Freeman were all rated 1st round, White 2nd round.

In 2008 Ryan & Brohm were rated 1st round, Henne 1st-2nd round, Flacco 2nd, Woodson 2-3rd, Josh Johnson 3rd.

Other than 2009 each draft saw highly rated prospects drop a round at least.

If I were to guess, Gabbert will go top 10, Locker will go top 20, Newton will be touch and go at either late first or early to mid second. Mallett would likely drop. There is still Ponder who is rated a 3rd round prospect even if none of the others drop.

#155 TheRealDeal

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Posted 13 January 2011 - 07:06 PM

Misuse of the word really. Essentially I meant, players who are considered 'franchise' QBs and are playing well. Just needed a shorter way of saying it.

You really do pick on tiny things people say rather than thinking about the overall content.


Those are important details though. I understood your point but I just can't let stuff like that go. Maybe I'm OCD about QBs but there are maybe 5-6 elite QBs and a few other good ones. Most are just average but look better or worse based on situations around them and players around them.

#156 KillerKat

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Posted 13 January 2011 - 07:34 PM

I have never heard of Gabbert until Luck didn't declare