My main point about Russell was that he and Brady Quinn were the only QBs taken in the first round that year. Russell being taken #1 because of his potential alone. He was an outstanding college player, don't get me wrong. He just wasn't worth the top pick. His draft stock only existed due to a shortage on top level QBs. It was him or Brady Quinn and Quinn's drop showed how weak the QB class really was.
Without Luck, this year's QB class is relatively weak in the upper echelon. Sure they're some high calibre guys like Mallet and Locker and Gabbert, But I don't see them as Top 10 picks let alone Top 5. You're really reaching if you want a QB. We might not see all 3 drafted in the first either. This means the Second and Third rounds will be money in terms of QBs. Especially when someone takes a gamble on Cam Newton like Denver did with The Golden Calf of Bristol.
Now had Luck declared and we'd taken him with the #1, we'd probably see more of these guys get drafted in the first simply because it'd mean that their values would essentially drop enough that the risks woudl be more worth it.
I think you're confused.
First, did you read Russel's scouting reports? People claimed he'd be the next great thing. He had all of it - except the work ethic, it turns out. He was worth a high first rounder. It's easy to say he wasn't worth the #1 the way he ended up busting, but what if he hadn't? Many, many scouts and analysts thought he was worth the #1 and I recall from that combine people decided he was worth it.
What I bolded just doesn't make sense. Some analysts had Gabbert at #5 before Luck said he was staying in school, and many still had him in the top half of the first round. Newton also has a good chance of going high.
There may not be a QB worth the #1 right now, but that doesn't mean none of them are worth being taken in the first round.