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A good and fair article about 1st round QB's

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Posted

But if you look at all 32 starting QBs, there are only 5 or 6's QBs drafted past the first round that start for the team that drafted them. Of those guys, the only one with much success is Brady. So the point still stands, draft a QB in the first round or find one outside of the draft.

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Posted

I get that, but they're bending the criteria to make their point. If you're going to do this type of comparison then look at all 32 starting QB's, not just the ones that fit your argument.

This.

All I take from this is that teams will give up on QBs who do not have the financial burden of the 1st round sooner than those that do. There are several teams who have had great success picking up FAs, UDFAs and trading for back ups.

Yes the 1st round is the obvious place to pick up a quality QB, however teams often stick by their under performing 1st round QB much longer than they should. Like-wise later round QBs who weren't progressing as quickly with their first team were ditched in favour of a 1st rounder.

People expect success straight away, it rarely happens, so the $$$ dictates what happens next.

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Posted

But if you look at all 32 starting QBs, there are only 5 or 6's QBs drafted past the first round that start for the team that drafted them. Of those guys, the only one with much success is Brady. So the point still stands, draft a QB in the first round or find one outside of the draft.

That is all well and good, but it also shows that teams can find decent alternatives outside the draft too. Or it also indicates that beyond the 1st round usually takes a season or two longer to develop the QB.

I think it really ends up being dictated by the QBs in the draft. In my opinion there isn't one QB who I would be comfortable taking with the 1st overall, FA is poor and trades can't occur until the CBA is sorted.

Result? Looks like our prior 2nd round pick will get another shot.

I think people are fooling themselves that the best QB in a draft class is always the best option, whereas this happens to be one of the weakest draft classes in recent memory.

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Posted

Sure, teams have had success finding QBs outside the draft and if Hurney thinks he can do that then I'm all for it. I just don't see many options there, and think taking a gamble on Gabbert or Newton is our best play.

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Posted

We went into last year with a 1st rd QB? News to me.

What about Romo, Hasselbeck, Brees?

that falls under the "rarely" category.

seriously, any team that is actually serious about getting a franchise QB should stick to looking in the first round because that is where you have the best chance of getting one. it doesn't guarantee one, but your chances of getting one then are much higher than searching outside of it. if you don't then you're just hope one falls magically out of the sky into your lap. nothing but luck involved in getting one outside the first.

if it was a better idea, more teams would be doing it.

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Posted

That is all well and good, but it also shows that teams can find decent alternatives outside the draft too.

This is true. But trying to fix your QB situation in one of those manners actually has a way higher fail rate than trying to address it through the draft.

It goes back to the old, "If this guy is really a franchise QB how come his team doesn't want him?" theory.

If guys on the trade market and free agency are Super Bowl QB's then they wouldn't be on the trade market or in free agency. And if they really do happen to be that good they often times cost too much. Especially in the trade market. While it is true that if you draft a QB early and he busts you are financially tied to the guy until his contract runs out. But if you trade for a QB with a bunch of 1st and second round draft picks (in Kolb's case they are asking for two first round picks), and he busts, not only are you screwed at your most important position you have severely hurt your future by losing two first round draft picks. In terms of improving your team those draft picks may be more important than the lost money invested in an early pick at QB.

Every once in a while you have peculiar circumstances like Brees or Vick, but I don't see that happening anytime soon.

So the question becomes do you want to take your risk in the draft (and if this coaching staff is as good as I think they are, if we look to QB in a later draft you will probably be in a range where available QBs will have actually more questions and a higher chance to bust than Cam Newton).

Or go the route that rarely works, like FA or trade market?

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Posted

Also there was an analysus that stated the bust rate for QB's taken in the second round, is 90%. I am trying to find that link.

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Posted

I get that, but they're bending the criteria to make their point. If you're going to do this type of comparison then look at all 32 starting QB's, not just the ones that fit your argument.

The numbers and statistics used in that article was pathetic at best. It is true that you can find a statistic to support any arguement you make....but that author took it to a whole new level.

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Posted

The numbers and statistics used in that article was pathetic at best. It is true that you can find a statistic to support any arguement you make....but that author took it to a whole new level.

Whatever, the fact still remains that drafting is a crap shoot especially QB's.

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Posted

The numbers and statistics used in that article was pathetic at best. It is true that you can find a statistic to support any arguement you make....but that author took it to a whole new level.

I think you guys may have missed the point of the article. It was an article on drafting QB's not solving QB situations and the statistics were reflective of the teams that drafted the QB's. That is why Kerry Collins was rated a bust even though he wasn't. He was a bust to the Panthers

The article was about drafting QB's and what it means to a franchise not who has what QB from where.

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Posted

the point of the damn article was that rarely does a QB taken after the first round have success with the team that drafted them, and there is a risk in taking a QB in the first round, but the fail rate is much lower than compared to later rounds.

it's called reading comprehension skillz people

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Posted

2010

ROUND 2: Jimmy Clausen, Panthers (48th overall)

ROUND 3: Colt McCoy, Browns (85); Armanti Edwards, Panthers (89)

ROUND 4: Mike Kafka, Eagles (122)

ROUND 5: John Skelton, Cardinals (155); Jonathan Crompton, Chargers (168)

ROUND 6: Rusty Smith, Titans (176); Dan LeFevour, Bears (181); Joe Webb, Vikings (199); Tony Pike, Panthers (204)

ROUND 7: Levi Brown, Bills (209); Sean Canfield, Saints (239); Zac Robinson, Patriots (250)

2009

ROUND 4: Stephen McGee, Cowboys (101)

ROUND 5: Rhett Bomar, Giants (151); Nate Davis, 49ers (171)

ROUND 6: Tom Brandstater, Broncos (174); Mike Teel, Seahawks (178); Keith Null, Rams (196); Curtis Painter, Colts (201)

2008

ROUND 2: Brian Brohm, Packers (56), Chad Henne, Dolphins (57)

ROUND 3: Kevin O’Connell, Patriots (94)

ROUND 5: John David Booty, Vikings (137); Dennis Dixon, Steelers (156); Josh Johnson, Buccaneers (160); Erik Ainge, Jets (162)

ROUND 6: Colt Brennan, Redskins (198); Andre Woodson, Giants (198)

ROUND 7: Matt Flynn, Packers (209); Alex Brink, Texans (223)

2007

ROUND 3: Trent Edwards, Bills (92)

ROUND 5: Jeff Rowe, Bengals (151); Troy Smith, Ravens (174)

ROUND 6: Jordan Palmer, Redskins (205)

ROUND 7: Tyler Thigpen, Vikings (217)

2006

ROUND 2: Kellen Clemens, Jets (49); Tarvaris Jackson, Vikings (64)

ROUND 3: Charlie Whitehurst, Chargers (81); Brodie Croyle, Chiefs (85)

ROUND 5: Ingle Martin, Packers (148); Omar Jacobs, Steelers (164)

ROUND 6: Bruce Gradkowski, Buccaneers (194)

ROUND 7: D.J. Shockley, Falcons (223)

2005

ROUND 3: Charlie Frye, Browns (67); Andrew Walter, Raiders (69); David Greene, Seahawks (85)

ROUND 4: Kyle Orton, Bears (106); Stefan LeFors, Panthers (121)

ROUND 5: Dan Orlovsky, Lions (145); Adrian McPherson, Saints (152)

ROUND 6: Derek Anderson, Ravens (213)

ROUND 7: Matt Cassel, Patriots (230); Ryan Fitzpatrick, Rams (250)

2004

ROUND 3: Matt Schaub, Falcons (90)

ROUND 4: Luke McCown, Browns (106)

ROUND 5: Craig Krenzel, Bears (148)

ROUND 6: Andy Hall, Eagles (185); Josh Harris, Ravens (187); Jim Sorgi, Colts (193); Jeff Smoker, Rams (201); John Navarre, Cardinals (202).

ROUND 7: Cody Pickett, 49ers (217); Casey Bramlet, Bengals (218); Matt Mauck, Broncos (225); B.J. Symons, Texans (248); Bradlee Van Pelt, Broncos (250)

2003

ROUND 3: Dave Ragone, Texans (88); Chris Simms, Buccaneers (97)

ROUND 4: Seneca Wallace, Seahawks (110)

ROUND 5: Brian St. Pierre, Steelers (163)

ROUND 6: Drew Henson, Texans (192); Brooks Bollinger, Jets (200); Kliff Kingsbury, Patriots (201)

ROUND 7: Gibran Hamdan, Redskins (232); Ken Dorsey, 49ers (241).

2002

ROUND 3: Josh McCown, Cardinals (81)

ROUND 4: David Garrard, Jaguars (108); Rohan Davey, Patriots (117)

ROUND 5: Randy Fasani, Panthers (137); Kurt Kittner, Falcons (158); Brandon Doman, 49ers (163); Craig Nall, Packers (164)

ROUND 6: J.T. O’Sullivan, Saints (186)

ROUND 7: Seth Burford, Chargers (216); Jeff Kelly, Seahawks (232); Wes Pate, Ravens (236)

2001

ROUND 2: Quincy Carter, Cowboys (53); Marques Tuiasosopo, Raiders (59)

ROUND 4: Chris Weinke, Panthers (106); Sage Rosenfels, Redskins (109); Jesse Palmer, Giants (125)

ROUND 5: Mike McMahon, Lions (149); A.J. Feeley, Eagles (155)

ROUND 6: Josh Booty, Seahawks (172); Josh Heupel, Dolphins (177).

Throw in Romo you have Garrard, Orton, Brees, Schaub, Cassell.

These are the only guys that are legit starters in the NFL that were drafted after the first round.

That is out of 105 that have been drafted. A "bust" rate (not really bust bc the late round guys weren't drafted to be franchise guys) of 95%.

Maybe better to say it this way. Only 5% of QB's taken after the first round develop into legitimate starters in the NFL.

Even the fail rate in the 2nd round is @90%.

Good QB's come in the first round. There are other options but you have to get really lucky and it is a much higher fail rate and riskier venture than drafting QB's in the first round. Delaying drafting QBs in the first round will relegate your franchise to mediocrity for years to come.

It isn't just about Cam Newton frankly. This should have happened years ago, we might not be in this mess.

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