I wonder what the percentage of reaches turn out to be busts. Certain years guys are widely considered the #1 pick. Other years, like this one, it is hotly debated. I'd like to see the percentage of QBs that were picked way ahead of where they were generally thought of going and what their "bust rate" is. I would think it accounts for most of the busts but I'm just guessing. It would be an interesting analysis since I think everyone here can agree that Cam is a big risk and if we take him at one it will be a reach.
Problem is all those variables you want to measure are highly subjective. Other than Luck who has been an overwhelming pick for number 1?? The last one was Russell and we all see how that worked out Last year Bradford wasn't an all consensus pick yet he turned out pretty well. Some folks had Clausen as a top 10 other thought he was a second rounder.
Whose mock draft would we use to determine who was a reach and who was picked where they should??
In the ned I doubt a clear pattern would emerge given that the bust rate is high no matter where they are taken. For that matter outside of OL and linebacker, the bust rate at most positions is pretty high.