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A good and fair article about 1st round QB's


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#101 panthers55

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Posted 24 February 2011 - 09:10 PM

I wonder what the percentage of reaches turn out to be busts. Certain years guys are widely considered the #1 pick. Other years, like this one, it is hotly debated. I'd like to see the percentage of QBs that were picked way ahead of where they were generally thought of going and what their "bust rate" is. I would think it accounts for most of the busts but I'm just guessing. It would be an interesting analysis since I think everyone here can agree that Cam is a big risk and if we take him at one it will be a reach.


Problem is all those variables you want to measure are highly subjective. Other than Luck who has been an overwhelming pick for number 1?? The last one was Russell and we all see how that worked out Last year Bradford wasn't an all consensus pick yet he turned out pretty well. Some folks had Clausen as a top 10 other thought he was a second rounder.

Whose mock draft would we use to determine who was a reach and who was picked where they should??

In the ned I doubt a clear pattern would emerge given that the bust rate is high no matter where they are taken. For that matter outside of OL and linebacker, the bust rate at most positions is pretty high.

#102 TheRealDeal

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Posted 24 February 2011 - 10:05 PM

Problem is all those variables you want to measure are highly subjective. Other than Luck who has been an overwhelming pick for number 1?? The last one was Russell and we all see how that worked out Last year Bradford wasn't an all consensus pick yet he turned out pretty well. Some folks had Clausen as a top 10 other thought he was a second rounder.

Whose mock draft would we use to determine who was a reach and who was picked where they should??

In the ned I doubt a clear pattern would emerge given that the bust rate is high no matter where they are taken. For that matter outside of OL and linebacker, the bust rate at most positions is pretty high.


I just think it would be interesting to see. In terms of Bradford I think it was pretty clear he would be #1. I guess you could just take the consensus average with most guys, throw out the extreme outliers and if it needs tweaking you tweak it. It's not to prove any point but just to see what it would look like.

#103 teeray

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Posted 24 February 2011 - 10:13 PM

So you call Clausen a bust, yet you think he will start the season to generate value? If he is a bust, how exactly will he generate value :confused:


I don't think he will generate value. I think the Panthers FO will want to try to generate value for him so they can move him.

I'm not sure he will be able to do that however.

#104 panthers55

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Posted 24 February 2011 - 11:59 PM

I just think it would be interesting to see. In terms of Bradford I think it was pretty clear he would be #1. I guess you could just take the consensus average with most guys, throw out the extreme outliers and if it needs tweaking you tweak it. It's not to prove any point but just to see what it would look like.


In 2010-Mayock who you seem to love had Bradford going 5th and had Clausen going 20th. He had Colt McCoy going third in the second round and The Golden Calf of Bristol going fourth. In 2009 his first pick went 8th and was the third OL taken. And that is just Mayock ,if you include Kiper, and a few other popular ones you would have guys all over the place. One guys reach got drafted late compared to where someone else had him picked.

Be my guest but I doubt it would show much.

#105 panthers55

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Posted 25 February 2011 - 12:00 AM

I don't think he will generate value. I think the Panthers FO will want to try to generate value for him so they can move him.

I'm not sure he will be able to do that however.


He is going nowhere. He won't be traded this year you can take it to the bank, seriously.

#106 teeray

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Posted 25 February 2011 - 12:06 AM

He is going nowhere. He won't be traded this year you can take it to the bank, seriously.


Yeah I know. What I am saying is that Clausen will likely get a chance to prove some worth no matter who we draft. I wouldn't be shocked if he starts our first game. The Panthers would like for him to generate some value for down the road if they want to move him. Or of course he could always blossom into a pro bowler. But he will get a shot even if we draft a QB.

#107 panthers55

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Posted 25 February 2011 - 12:09 AM

Yeah I know. What I am saying is that Clausen will likely get a chance to prove some worth no matter who we draft. I wouldn't be shocked if he starts our first game. The Panthers would like for him to generate some value for down the road if they want to move him. Or of course he could always blossom into a pro bowler. But he will get a shot even if we draft a QB.


Given all the injuries to the Qb position most years for the Panthers, it is unlikely that the starter in the first game will last the season. No matter who starts,I wouldn't be surprised if we have 2 or 3 guys take snaps at Qb for us.

#108 chef17

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Posted 25 February 2011 - 01:19 AM

I don't see him starting just to generate value. If he starts it will be because he is our best opinion. If they start Clausen when another QB looks better, pretty sure our coaches will lose the entire locker room. That's not a good way to start the season.

#109 teeray

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Posted 25 February 2011 - 01:41 AM

I don't see him starting just to generate value. If he starts it will be because he is our best opinion. If they start Clausen when another QB looks better, pretty sure our coaches will lose the entire locker room. That's not a good way to start the season.


Considering he has one year under his belt I imagine a lot of people would think Clausen is the best option no matter who we would have drafted even if had been Luck. I would have felt like Clausen should start even if Luck did come out. They are not going to bail on Jimmy Clausen but I feel like they aren't going to sit back and cross there fingers and hope he works out either.

A new coaching staff wants to be pro active on this. The longer they stall on drafting a QB the higher the probability they are unemployed in three years.

Any QB will need time to flourish and I feel that Rivera would rather start that developmental process sooner rather than later. If he waits till next year, then whatever QB he gets will likely need two years to really develop, if that is the case then he might not be here to enjoy the fruits of that labor. That is just the nature of the NFL these days.

Edited by teeray, 25 February 2011 - 01:44 AM.