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Htar

Now that Iran has enough enriched

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On another note Iran already gets around 3 -8 dollars a barrel for crude oil that passes through the straight in agreement with Opec.

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This is about Iran opening a new naval base at the mouth of the straight in anticipation of any conflicts with other countries. They can effectively use the base to blockade the mouth of the straight.

If the Strait should be closed, and the access to the world's markets for Saudi Arabia's oil terminals be hindered due to an attack, some six to nine million barrels per day will be taken off the global market, leading to an overnight oil price-hike to more than $200/bbl. Author Black has stated that with no plan for fuel shifting and retrofitting, within weeks the country would see food shortages, mass unemployment and a neighbor vs. neighbor scenario.

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experts say that if Iran was to attempt a blockade they would lose in a fight with America, but if they mined the straight and used Military forces to start a conflict in the straight it would take around 3 - 5 weeks for normal flow to resume.

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experts say that if Iran was to attempt a blockade they would lose in a fight with America, but if they mined the straight and used Military forces to start a conflict in the straight it would take around 3 - 5 weeks for normal flow to resume.

I can buy that, although I think Minesweeping assets have already been forward deployed to the area, so that might cut the time some.

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This is about Iran opening a new naval base at the mouth of the straight in anticipation of any conflicts with other countries. They can effectively use the base to blockade the mouth of the straight.

If the Strait should be closed, and the access to the world's markets for Saudi Arabia's oil terminals be hindered due to an attack, some six to nine million barrels per day will be taken off the global market, leading to an overnight oil price-hike to more than $200/bbl. Author Black has stated that with no plan for fuel shifting and retrofitting, within weeks the country would see food shortages, mass unemployment and a neighbor vs. neighbor scenario.

FWIW, there is a plan for Saudi Arabia There are a couple of pipelines from the major oilfields to the Red Sea terminals. They are running at about half capacity right now.

Of course, it would still be a big disruption, and prices would shoot up, but I do think things would recover in a month or so.

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I can buy that, although I think Minesweeping assets have already been forward deployed to the area, so that might cut the time some.

one day and the price is expected to go up to 200 dollars a barrel. after a week that would probably be doubled. None the less, even if Iran lost it's effect would be catastrophic. at 79 per barrel gas was around 3.20 or so on average in the country. your talking about at least gas prices after the first night of the blockade being in the 9 dollar a gallon range. After a week your looking at around 15 - 20 dollars a gallon. Keep in mind around 20 - 30 percent of our oil comes from there. That's a huge hit. This country would come to a stall after a week and a half - two weeks.

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one day and the price is expected to go up to 200 dollars a barrel. after a week that would probably be doubled. None the less, even if Iran lost it's effect would be catastrophic.

The scenario you describe is exactly what the strategic petroleum reserve was created for. If Iran takes this path, I think we would see the oil reservers being released in order to maintain supplies until the Straits could be reopened. The US could supply the 9-12 million barrels per day for up to 60 days. Not that the situation wouldn't be bad, it definitely would be. But I don't think it would be catastrophic.

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Deac do you have any idea how much the Saudi royal family is worth? I'm legitimately asking...I have no idea. I bet the figure would be mind boggling.

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I take that back, the situation would be completely catastrophic, for Iran. Shutting down the straits in this manner would likely mean US and allied airstrikes that would take out a significant portion of their military capacity (including those nukes) along with a Naval blockade that would likely choke off their military imports and perhaps their own oil exports as well. It would also invoke a tremendous amount of hostility from Iran's neighbors. I doubt Saudi Arabia, Kuwait etc... would be very happy with them. They might even join in military operations against Iran.

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Deac do you have any idea how much the Saudi royal family is worth? I'm legitimately asking...I have no idea. I bet the figure would be mind boggling.

Who knows? But the royal family is huge, so it would be hard to quantify.

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