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Hurney's round 2 and 3 Draft record vs. the League.


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#1 Stroupe-a-loop

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Posted 31 May 2011 - 02:54 PM

I think we here and the media at large have written the narrative of Marty Hurney: he makes great moves in the first round and is prone to whiff in rounds 2 and 3. I wonder how accurate this actually is however. What do the majority of NFL GMs do with these picks?

I figured the most logical way to figure out the true storyline here is to break down Hurney's pick by year and then look at how the rest of the league performed in the same round. I believe a majority of people believe (correctly or incorrectly) that players selected in the 2nd and 3rd rounds should become regular starters at some point in their career, so that will be the scale we use.

If a player started more than 10 games in a season for at least three seasons, the pick will be considered a "success". 10 because it is a solid majority of a season, and three years because injuries and/or potential can get a guy 10 starts for a season or two. If the player does not meet that, it will be considered a "failure". If the player makes a probowl at a position (i.e. not special teams), it will be considered an "outstanding" pick.

So using this criteria we will stack up Hurney's record against the rest of the league. We will also find out what the rest of the league normally does with picks in this range. We start, as is my custom, at the beginning in 2002.

Hurney's Picks:

2nd. 34th Overall DeShaun Foster, RB, UCLA: I think this pick is widely considered a bust, but DeShaun did start 16 games in 07 and 14 games in 06. He never rushed for 1000 yards, but he never got 250 carries due to splitting time and put up 800 yards three times. However, he was rarely the best runningback on the roster and had his issues with injuries and fumbles. Both by criteria and in my opinion, he is classified a failure.

3rd. 73rd Overall Will Witherspoon, LB, Georgia: Not really up for debate, this pick is a success. Witherspoon was a great player that was loved during his time here.

Around the League:

Outstanding Picks (6):

2nd- Andre Gurode Dal, LeCharles Bentley NO, Cinton Portis Den, Michael Lewis Phi

3rd- Brian Westbrook Phi, Chris Hope Pit

Successes (18):

2nd- Jabar Gaffney Hou, Lamont Thompson Cin, Larry Triplett Ind, Tank Williams Ten, Chester Pitts Hou, Anthony Weaver Bal, Langston Walker, Oak, Sheldon Brown Phi, Antwaan Randle-El Pit, Antonio Bryant Dal, Travis Fisher Stl, Deon Branch NE

3rd- Fred Weary Hou, Andre Goodman Det, Ben Leber SD, Melvin Fowler Cle, Chris Baker Nyj, Akin Ayodele Jac

Failures (40):
2nd- Kalimba Edwards Det, Josh Reed Buf, Raonall Smith Min, Tony Fonoti SD, Mike Pearson Jac, Eddie Freeman KC, Tim Carter NYG, Andre Davis Cle, Reche Caldwell SD, Levar Fisher Ari, Maurice Morris Sea, Doug Jolley Oak, Ladell Betts Was, Jon McGraw Nyj, Anton Palepoi Sea, Ryan Denney Buf

3rd-Matt Schobel Cin, Saleem Rasheed Sf, Willie Offord Min, Roe Williams Chi, Joseph Jefferson Ind, Derek Ross Dal, Rocky Calmus Ten, Jeff Hatch Nyg, Rashad Bauman Was, Will Overstreet Atl, Josh McCown Ari, James Allen, Charles Hill Hou, Lamar Gordon Stl, Kris Richard Sea, Marquise Walker TB, Cliff Russell Was, Seth McKinney Mia, Marques Anderson GB, Terrence Metcalf Chi, Eric Crouch Stl, Dorsett Davis Den, Coy Wire Buf, Dennis Johnson Ari

Findings:

Oh my God you guys. You have no idea the sea of crappy players that I just waded through. I don't know if this was just a really bad year for 2nd and 3rd round prospects or if it's normally this bad, but that list is terrible. After looking at all their career stats, I have lost the ability to love.

I think looking at this list we have to give Hurney a passing grade if not a B or A for this draft. Foster might have been a little disappointing, but I can't emphasize how bad a bunch of these guys are. So. Many. Useless. Players.

Coming up after I finish crying, the 2003 Draft.

#2 Metal_Sparty

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Posted 31 May 2011 - 03:01 PM

I'm looking forward to the next installment, can't really base it off of one year.

#3 rayzor

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Posted 31 May 2011 - 03:04 PM

:lol:

Findings:

Oh my God you guys. You have no idea the sea of crappy players that I just waded through. I don't know if this was just a really bad year for 2nd and 3rd round prospects or if it's normally this bad, but that list is terrible. After looking at all their career stats, I have lost the ability to love.


i would just grade them on a curve. if the whole class sucked, then how did ours suck comparatively?

congrats on finding a better way to waste time than me today, btw.

#4 bleys

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Posted 31 May 2011 - 03:06 PM

I can appreciate all the crappy players you just had to look through, but I can't really agree with the criteria, although logically, I would say that's a solid basis..

you automatically have to disqualify guys like Charles Johnson and James Anderson.

#5 CRA

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Posted 31 May 2011 - 03:08 PM

Hurney has been the GM For 10 drafts.....if look at the first half 2002-2006 you have a good idea on what the players really turned into. It is hard to really look at what he has done in recent history b/c you don't know who will ultimately be legit.

If you look at rounds 2-3 from 2002-2006......Seifert blew Hurney out of the water in rounds 2-3 with a fraction of the picks from 1999-2001. That isn't a compliment/endorsement of Seifert....just a random look at the last guy in Hunrey's seat during those rounds.

Edited by CRA, 31 May 2011 - 03:14 PM.


#6 bleys

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Posted 31 May 2011 - 03:10 PM

actually, if you look at the list of 2nd and 3rd rounders, Hurney has put a lot of starters on the field.. damn, I didn't realize how efficient actually.

copying them down now... and I wanted to complain about how our draft has picked up since hiring Don Gregory and staff. Not sure that's even relevant.

#7 Fiz

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Posted 31 May 2011 - 03:11 PM

Lollin

#8 Stroupe-a-loop

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Posted 31 May 2011 - 03:12 PM

I can appreciate all the crappy players you just had to look through, but I can't really agree with the criteria, although logically, I would say that's a solid basis..

you automatically have to disqualify guys like James Anderson, when most people SHOULD agree he is a solid starter and draft pick. (Charles Johnson is disqualified as well)


Right, and I think I'll have to cut it off around 06 or so to make sure guys like that have had time to establish themselves. If a list like this was made 3 or 4 years after the draft, guys like Andre Goodman, Langston Walker, Lamont Thompson, and Ben Leber would be considered failures. I just can't think of a better way to qualify an "regular starter". If I made it just two seasons of 10 or more starts, guys like Mike Pearson would be on it, but in reality they got starts their first two seasons and were never heard from again.

#9 CRA

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Posted 31 May 2011 - 03:12 PM

actually, if you look at the list of 2nd and 3rd rounders, Hurney has put a lot of starters on the field.. damn, I didn't realize how efficient actually.

copying them down now... and I wanted to complain about how our draft has picked up since hiring Don Gregory and staff. Not sure that's even relevant.


gotta be careful with the recent years in evaluating draft picks though.....

#10 bleys

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Posted 31 May 2011 - 03:14 PM

Not as great as I expected, Pre-Don Gregory:

DeShaun Foster
Will Witherspoon
Bruce Nelson
Mike Seidman
Ricky Manning
Kerry Colbert
Travelle Wharton
Eric Shelton
Evan Mathis
Keary Colbert
Attiyah Ellison


Sounds pretty damn efficient to me, Post-Don Gregory: (cut off at 2009)

Charles Johnson
Ryan Kalil
James Anderson
Rashad Butler
Dwayne Jarrett
Richard Marshall
Dan Connor
Charles Godfrey
Everette Brown
Sherrod Martin
Corvey Irvin

#11 bleys

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Posted 31 May 2011 - 03:17 PM

gotta be careful with the recent years in evaluating draft picks though.....


I would only consider 4 out of 11 busts that I did for 2006-2009.. the rest are starters, or are starting material IMO.. then again, guys like Sherrod Martin still need to grow as players with only 2 years of experience. Although I've seen nothing to make me think of him as a bust.

#12 CRA

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Posted 31 May 2011 - 03:18 PM

Not as great as I expected, Pre-Don Gregory:

DeShaun Foster
Will Witherspoon
Bruce Nelson
Mike Seidman
Ricky Manning
Kerry Colbert
Travelle Wharton
Eric Shelton
Evan Mathis
Keary Colbert
Attiyah Ellison


Sounds pretty damn efficient to me, Post-Don Gregory: (cut off at 2009)

Charles Johnson
Ryan Kalil
James Anderson
Rashad Butler
Dwayne Jarrett
Richard Marshall
Dan Connor
Charles Godfrey
Everette Brown
Sherrod Martin
Corvey Irvin


I see 1 Pro Bowler.

That is weak....regardless of the homer spin we can make for players. 1 Pro bowler is weak stuff with all those picks. How many GMs that have been w/ a team for 10 years have found 1 Pro Bowler in those key rounds?

#13 bleys

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Posted 31 May 2011 - 03:27 PM

I don't know.. I guess I have to look this up? ;)


I have a feeling you're going to be let down though.. glancing at the Patriots it's worse. again, just a quick glance.

#14 bleys

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Posted 31 May 2011 - 03:34 PM

well, considering my opinion is a homer.. I guess this is me bashing the Patriots... lol

tell me this is even close to as good as Hurney, and the Pats have had a ridiculous amount of picks in 2009 alone..

2002-2009:

Deon Branch
Rohan Davey
Eugene Wilson
Bethel Johnson
Marquise Hill
Guss Scott
Ellis Hobbs
David Thomas
Chad Jackson
Terrence Wheatley
Shawn Crable
Kevin O'Connell

2009: 6 picks, wow
Patrick Chung
Ron Brace
Darius Butler
Sebastian Vollmer
BRandon Tate
Tyrone McKenzie

#15 CRA

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Posted 31 May 2011 - 03:36 PM

I don't know.. I guess I have to look this up? ;)


I have a feeling you're going to be let down though.. glancing at the Patriots it's worse. again, just a quick glance.


as I told Fiz when he brought up the Patriots...over the last decade the Patriots have been one of the WORST drafting teams. Most people assume b/c of their success and winning ways they have knocked drafts out of the park......but they haven't. Undrafted kids, free agents.....they have hit on a lot of key cogs. NE has retained a very limited number of draft picks compared to other teams when looking at early in the past decade.

Edited by CRA, 31 May 2011 - 03:44 PM.



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