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Israel planning to go war with Iran in September?


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#1 Floppin

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Posted 22 July 2011 - 08:07 AM

One look at the most recent naval update maps shows that in addition to global insolvency (courtesy of the broke European dominoes and a potentially technically broke US), a UK on the verge of a parliamentary scandal courtesy of a media baron whose empire is crumbling, and not to mention yet another downward inflection point in the global economic slowdown courtesy of the end of QE2 and no replacement yet, market watchers may have to start factoring in geopolitical risk yet again. While the fact that Syria, Yemen, Egypt, Tunisia, and now Turkey, are ever more increasingly on edge is apparently something Mr. Market has managed to internalize, when it comes to geopolitics everyone stops to listen when renewed Iran-Israel rumblings reappear. Which may just be the case. As the most recently updated naval map from Stratfor demonstrates, the CVN 77 G.H.W. Bush has just entered the Persian Gulf, the first time a US aircraft carrier has passed through the Straits of Hormuz in months. What is also notable is that the LHD 5 Bataan amphibious warfare ship has just weighed anchor right next to Libya: this is odd since the coast of Tripoli had been left unattended for many weeks by US attack ships. And topping it all off is that a third aircraft carrier, the CVN 73, is sailing west from the South China seas, potentially with a target next to CVN 76 Ronald Reagan which is the second carrier in the Straits of Hormuz area. Three carriers in proximity to Iran would be extremely troubling, yet fit perfectly with the story of CIA veteran Robert Baer, the man played by George Clooney in Syriana, who as Al Jazeera reports, appeared on KPFK Los Angeles, warning that Israeli PM Netanyahu is "likely to ignite a war with Iran in the very near future." It gets worse: "Masters asked Baer why the US military is not mobilising to stop this war from happening. Baer responded that the military is opposed, as is former Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, who used his influence to thwart an Israeli attack during the Bush and Obama administrations. But he's gone now and "there is a warning order inside the Pentagon" to prepare for war." The punchline: "There is almost "near certainty" that Netanyahu is "planning an attack [on Iran] ... and it will probably be in September before the vote on a Palestinian state. And he's also hoping to draw the United States into the conflict", Baer explained." For the betting public out there, an September CL call may not be the dumbest trade possible...

First, the naval update per Stratfor:
Posted Image


And, courtesy of Al Jazeera and Haaretz, the full take from Robert Baer:

Earlier this week, Robert Baer appeared on the provocative KPFK Los Angeles show Background Briefing, hosted by Ian Masters. It was there that he predicted that Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu is likely to ignite a war with Iran in the very near future.

Robert Baer has had a storied career, including a stint in Iraq in the 1990s where he organised opposition to Saddam Hussein. (He was recalled after being accused of trying to organise Saddam's assassination.) Upon his retirement, he received a top decoration for meritorious service.

Baer is no ordinary CIA operative. George Clooney won an Oscar for playing a character based on Baer in the film Syriana (Baer also wrote the book).

He obviously won't name many of his sources in Israel, the United States, and elsewhere, but the few he has named are all Israeli security figures who have publically warned that Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak are hell-bent on war.

Most former Mossad chiefs wary of Netanyahu

Baer was especially impressed by the unprecedented warning about Netanyahu's plans by former Mossad chief Meir Dagan. Dagan left the Israeli intelligence agency in September 2010. Two months ago, he predicted that Israel would attack and said that doing so would be "the stupidest thing" he could imagine. According to Haaretz:

When asked about what would happen in the aftermath of an Israeli attack Dagan said that: "It will be followed by a war with Iran. It is the kind of thing where we know how it starts, but not how it will end."

The Iranians have the capability to fire rockets at Israel for a period of months, and Hizbollah could fire tens of thousands of grad rockets and hundreds of long-range missiles, he said.

According to Ben Caspit of the Israeli daily Maariv, Dagan's blasts at Israel's political leadership are significant not only because Mossad chiefs, in office or retired, traditionally have kept their lips sealed, but also because Dagan is very conservative on security matters.

Caspit writes that Dagan is "one of the most rightwing militant people ever born here. ... When this man says that the leadership has no vision and is irresponsible, we should stop sleeping soundly at night".

Dagan describes the current Israeli government as "dangerous and irresponsible" and views speaking out against Netanyahu as his patriotic duty.

And his abhorrence of Netanyahu is not uncommon in the Israeli security establishment. According to Think Progress, citing the Forward newspaper, 12 of the 18 living ex-chiefs of Israel's two security agencies (Mossad and Shin Bet), are "either actively opposing Netanyahu's stances or have spoken out against them". Of the remaining six, two are current ministers in Netanyahu government, leaving a grand total of four out of 18 who independently support the prime minister.

In short, while Congress dutifully gives Netanyahu 29 standing ovations, the Israelis who know the most about both Netanyahu and Israel's strategic situation think he is a dangerous disaster.

But according to Baer, we ain't seen nothing yet.

There is almost "near certainty" that Netanyahu is "planning an attack [on Iran] ... and it will probably be in September before the vote on a Palestinian state. And he's also hoping to draw the United States into the conflict", Baer explained.

The Israeli air force would attack "Natanz and other nuclear facilities to degrade their capabilities. The Iranians will strike back where they can: Basra, Baghdad", he said, and even Afghanistan. Then the United States would jump into the fight with attacks on Iranian targets. "Our special forces are already looking at Iranian targets in Iraq and across the border [in Iran] which we would strike. What we're facing here is an escalation, rather than a planned out-and-out war. It's a nightmare scenario. We don't have enough troops in the Middle East to fight a war like that." Baer added, "I think we are looking into the abyss".


http://www.zerohedge...r-israel-iran-w

#2 Happy Panther

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Posted 22 July 2011 - 08:32 AM

No they aren't. Way to regurgitate another dumb article.

#3 Davidson Deac II

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Posted 22 July 2011 - 08:40 AM

Ok.

Are you off your meds again?

#4 Happy Panther

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Posted 22 July 2011 - 08:49 AM

Deac and I have been through this.The media releases an "Iran attack imminent" article every three months and have been doing for 20 years.

The fact that someone still falls for it is funny.

http://www.foxnews.c...,133899,00.html

http://www.foxnews.c...,138915,00.html

http://www.cnn.com/2...iran/index.html
not specifically Iran attack...
http://edition.cnn.c...rice/index.html

http://edition.cnn.c...iran/index.html (dead link)

LONDON, England -- British Prime Minister Tony Blair has called Iran a state sponsor of terrorism, and urged the Islamic republic to bow to EU demands to renounce its suspected pursuit of nuclear weapons.

He also called on Tehran not to hamper peace efforts in the Middle East.

Giving evidence to a UK parliamentary committee, Blair was asked if he shared U.S. President George W. Bush's assessment of Tehran as the "world's primary state sponsor of terror."



http://news.xinhuane...ent_2961411.htm

http://www.cnn.com/2...iaea/index.html

foxnews (no link)

Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was quoted Thursday as saying he was hoping for the death of Prime Minister Ariel Sharon.

“Hopefully the news that the criminal of Sabra and Shatila has joined his ancestors is final," the semi-official students news agency ISNA quoted him as telling a group of Shi'ite Muslim clerics in Iran's holy city Qom.

Sabra and Shatila are the names of refugee camps in Beirut where pro-Israeli Christian militiamen massacred Palestinians after Sharon masterminded the 1982 Israeli invasion of Lebanon.

The former Revolutionary Guardsman has made a string of verbal attacks on Israel since taking office in August.

In October he called Israel a "tumor" which should be “wiped off the map .” In subsequent speeches he suggested Israel should be moved to Europe or North America and called the Holocaust a myth.



#5 cookinwithgas

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Posted 22 July 2011 - 09:02 AM

My long term detailed analysis reveals that three months is the attention span of your average whack job conspiracy theorist.

#6 Panthro

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Posted 22 July 2011 - 09:05 AM

they've been planning attacks for the last 30 years

#7 Davidson Deac II

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Posted 22 July 2011 - 09:11 AM

Fwiw, I think that there are some in Israel who might want to attack Iran, but geography makes it extremely difficult.

#8 Floppin

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Posted 22 July 2011 - 09:12 AM

It's just quotes from US and Israeli intelligence community, sorry to get your panties all ruffled.

#9 Davidson Deac II

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Posted 22 July 2011 - 09:16 AM

Not a single quote in there comes from the US intel community. There are some quotes from a former CIA employee who is now trying to sell books to wingnut conspiracy theorist.

#10 mr beauxjangles

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Posted 22 July 2011 - 09:28 AM

damnit can we please impose a new tinderbox rule that you must inject at least some original thought into the thread you create? otherwise let's just a create a stickied "post an article, any article" thread. when you post an article or a video with no original thought or opinion to accompany it, i will always assume you are just trolling.

#11 Happy Panther

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Posted 22 July 2011 - 09:50 AM

couldn't agree more

#12 Happy Panther

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Posted 22 July 2011 - 09:53 AM

Fwiw, I think that there are some in Israel who might want to attack Iran, but geography makes it extremely difficult.


Israel has Jericho III rockets which can go 5,000 miles or so.

#13 Davidson Deac II

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Posted 22 July 2011 - 10:11 AM

Israel has Jericho III rockets which can go 5,000 miles or so.



Sure, but those are mostly for nuclear use. I don't think anyone in power in Israeli is thinking nuclear. They could use them in a conventional mode, but Ballistic missiles in conventional mode probably don't carry enough firepower and aren't really accurate enough to have enough assurance of success that the Israelis would require in order to make the decision to attack.

When I say attack, I mean primarily the Israeli air and ground forces. Attacking Iran via ground is impossible except perhaps for small covert units. Attacking by Air means either getting the assistance of the Saudi's or the Jordanians/Iraqis, or flying all the way around the Saudi peninsula. Either of these would be difficult at best.

If the Israelis are going to use missiles, they do have air and ship launched cruise missiles. I think that would be their most likely method of assault, perhaps combined with small units being inserted into Iran, just to be certain the facilities are destroyed. But doing so entails great risk, especially to those ground units.

Edited by Davidson Deac II, 22 July 2011 - 10:20 AM.


#14 Claws

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Posted 22 July 2011 - 10:51 AM

So then I take it you guys would be surprised if it happened.

#15 Davidson Deac II

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Posted 22 July 2011 - 11:06 AM

At some point, someone might strike Iran. It might even be us. None of the info posted in the OP's link has anything to do with that possibility.

The Naval deployment map listed is pretty much standard for the last 20 years or so.

Edited by Davidson Deac II, 22 July 2011 - 11:09 AM.



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