Ok, I'm going to chime in one last time on the hope that someone on here will get a deeper appreciation for this situation.
First, 'game theory' does not mean 'football strategy.' Game theory is a field of mathematics that deals with calculating the various chances of different outcomes in a situation based on incomplete information. From Wikipedia: "Within math, game theory reflects calculated circumstances (games) where a person’s success is based upon the choices of others (Myerson, 1991)." Having played and coached football at high levels does not mean you have an understanding of 'game theory.'Wikipedia Link
Game theory applies to the 'going for two' situation because we have a variety of outcomes, incomplete information and more than one person making decision that effect the final outcome. The correct decision in this situation is not due to football strategy, it's pure math. Game theory will tell us the chances of success based on the different variations.
What we know:
1) the score is currently Carolina +4.
2) There's roughly 4min left in the game.
3) Carolina gets a free play for an attempt at +1 or +2, then Jax gets the ball.
1) Chance of success at +1 = 95%
2) Chance of success at +2 = 40%
3) Chance of Jax scoring 1TD vs Car scoring 1 FG = x%
4) Chance of Jax scoring 2FG vs Car scoring 0 = y%
5) Chance of Jax scoring 1TD and missing the PAT and Car scoring 0 = z%
etc, etc, etc...
These % vary based on judgements of current conditions and quality of play to this point. They are not exact measurables.
When you run the scenarios, the math tells you that the highest % chance (by far) of Car coming out the top score after 4min is to kick the PAT. Math does not lie, irregardless of what is on someone's chart. There was once a chart that said that the Earth is the center of the universe, too.
We're talking about what play gives team A (Carolina) the best chance
of having the high score at the end, not an end all, be all obvious answer to all scenarios. That does not exist.
Take it or leave it. I agree on one thing, there is nothing more to discuss on this matter.