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fieryprophet

Cam Newton Erases All Doubt

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Here's another interesting revelation. Percentage completion in our losses:

First three quarters: 77/115 1175 67% 10.21

4th quarter: 39/76 505 51% 6.64

Breaking down the 4th:

Garbage: 15/21 216 71% 10.28

Non-garbage: 24/55 289 43% 5.24

So again, this isn't an accident. It's not just his QB rating and it isn't because of a TD here or interception there. His overall completion percentage plummets and so does his yards per completion.

His yards per completion in garbage time is nearly identical to his third quarter number. No effect. His yards per attempt right before the final nail in the coffin is 5.24 and completion percentage is 43%. After that point, and when the pressure is off, he goes back to his normal self, regardless of whether he has to speed up or throw on every down.

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Do you have a breakdown of his sacks per quarter? Too lazy to look them up myself.

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I was going to do that but just doing the 4th quarter in 5 games took forever. I will say this much as far as sacks go. If you plug in his sacks in his 4th quarter: 39/81 483 48%, 5.96. Now this is overall, including garbage.

If you look at non-garbage:

24/60 267 40% 4.45

What's more important there, isn't that his completion % drops another 8%, which makes little difference since you're still under 50%, but its his yards per attempt. So on average it takes us 3 downs to get 9.9 yards which is short of a first down.

What's spooky is when you look at a number of different stats....there's always a 1 that keeps popping up everywhere. It's eerie. He also has 1 TD in live 4th quarter time and 1 in garbage time. He's also only had 1 interception in each broken down the same way.

So it's always that 1 that's on the wrong side of things. Whether an inch, a yard, a completion % number, a TD, or interception. It's just 1. Fitting but it needs to cross over in our favor.

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I was more curious if the number of sacks he takes increases in the 4th. I don't agree with your assessment of garbage time but I know it's the norm, so I understand why you're using it.

I just think you're doing all this way too soon. He's played in a handful of games, far too few to claim that he is choking imo. It's not like our defense is stepping up in those games, either. The games we've won, both the defense and offense have stepped it up in the 4th quarter. I don't think we've really had a game where one unit did it's job and the other did not in the 4th quarter.

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I was more curious if the number of sacks he takes increases in the 4th. I don't agree with your assessment of garbage time but I know it's the norm, so I understand why you're using it.

I just think you're doing all this way too soon. He's played in a handful of games, far too few to claim that he is choking imo. It's not like our defense is stepping up in those games, either. The games we've won, both the defense and offense have stepped it up in the 4th quarter. I don't think we've really had a game where one unit did it's job and the other did not in the 4th quarter.

he's almost making it sound like newton is a rookie with only 7 weeks of play under his belt.

defense really hasn't helped out things for him either.

there are things to work on, but no real red flags at this point. as good as he is, he's still a work in progress and far from a finished product. he's doing fine and really there is nothing to be worried about with him.

whole lot of research and effort that isn't really needed, imo.

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Also worth mentioning, those sack adjusted numbers as well as yards per attempt reveal he gets conservative in the 4th and when the pressure is on, while opposing teams D's buckle down and step up.

That's why those drop. He hasn't adjusted to NFL defenses playing much more aggressive late in the game when they are trying to protect the lead. He has a tendency to hold on to the ball longer, which is the opposite of what you should be doing so he either ends up getting sacked or dumping it off short because his receivers are getting wrapped up.

Pressure of winning man. It's real. I feel it just when reading the numbers. It's pretty crazy. I expected to see a difference, but I didn't know it would be this big a swing. I think what may have been a blessing in disguise, is that first quarter of the Washington game. That was actually pretty similar to how defenses tend to play when protecting a lead in the 4th.

You just have to figure them out quicker in the 4th. But the key is getting the ball out quick. That adjustment they made at half time needs to happen in the 4th too. They should be practicing more blitz packages with more passes to the tight ends where he's releasing the ball prior to the TE getting into his spot. He's currently doing this with his option, and my bet is it's his safe dump off, not the first or even second read. They need a change of strategy in the 4th because they use the same plays when we're down like we do when we're up. And that's going to work against you. When defenses change, you have to change.

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tbqh if the worst we can say about Cam is that in our 5 losses his play has been indicative of the fact he can't throw the entire team on his back yet and carry us to wins, I can't really disagree with that and all I can say is that at least he's fighting 'till the end in those games, 'garbage' time or not.

Cam's already so exceeded my expectations for his personal level of play I have trouble being disappointed in any phase of his game right this second.

Maybe if we lose this Sunday I'll be more whiney and more likely to agree with you though PB. ;)

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Wait a minute now. Pantherball was the guy dismissing every advanced statistic about how much our defense sucks without even bothering to look at them because he doesn't believe advanced statistics are worth anything.

But here he is trying to make some sort of bastard child advanced statistics and present them as evidence.

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I was more curious if the number of sacks he takes increases in the 4th. I don't agree with your assessment of garbage time but I know it's the norm, so I understand why you're using it.

I just think you're doing all this way too soon. He's played in a handful of games, far too few to claim that he is choking imo. It's not like our defense is stepping up in those games, either. The games we've won, both the defense and offense have stepped it up in the 4th quarter. I don't think we've really had a game where one unit did it's job and the other did not in the 4th quarter.

I have no idea if his sacks change but I'm willing to bet if you plug the D's numbers they don't drop like this in the 4th. They may even show the opposite like most defenses.

I think 5 games is a decent enough sample to judge pressure. No one's passing any long term conclusions, but in the 5 losses, pressure got to him to the point where his passer rating is not good enough to win.

And again, even if you include garbage time, he's still dropped to a sub par 73.4 rating in the 4th overall. No matter how you look at it, he's been worse in the 4th, whether overall, or just prior to garbage time when we are down or tied in the 4th.

But you can't deny the difference between playing to win the game, and playing when the game's lost. That garbage time is dead offensive time. It's miracle land. It's The Golden Calf of Bristol prayer time. 99% of the time though the game's done and they're nothing but honorary drives or practice time. You only have a chance to win if you score AND convert an on-side kick because you need more than 8 points with less than 2 minutes left on the clock.

The only time you really get behind that is in the playoffs or Superbowl.

I mean come on, his garbage time rating is 120.1 without the Hail Mary interception! lol. If he could do that for the entire 4th quarter when we're down..we'd have won every damn game. But as it stands 57.0 ain't gonna get it done when you are down and can't rely on the run game either. You gotta fix that. Either play with the lead all year, or fix this stat.

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