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Cam Newton Erases All Doubt


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#145 King Taharqa

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Posted 29 October 2011 - 04:49 PM

No not at all. I just hate it when people call for the heads of our D after our losses, while ignoring the bigger issue. I like seeing if things really are what they appear to be. And they're not. But again, this is more about Cam, not the D. I'm not saying I'm satisfied with the D. I'm just saying him and this offense has been a much bigger factor in our losses and backed it up with actual numbers.


I agree there is times our offense has stalled late in games or we havent been able to put your foot on the opposing D's throat, but point blank, the weak link of this team is our defense. The Saints game and Falcons games come to mind where we had leads in the 2nd half of the game only for our defense to relinquish them. Our defense hasnt won us a single game this year. They've played well enough in our two wins for us to win, but there's not 1 game I can point to and say the defense made that happen for us. Nobody is saying Cam and the O is perfect, they have drives they dont capitalize on and opportunities they miss, but overall its the defense that isnt stopping people and isnt consistently going out there week after week taking the football.

#146 Pantherball

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Posted 29 October 2011 - 04:51 PM

I'm all for statistical analysis, I was reading websites like Football Outsiders years ago, before everybody else discovered them, but some context is important too. When the team is trailing late the opposing defense knows what's coming and it's a lot easier to stop. Remember the third pick Cam threw against Atlanta? That counts against his 4th quarter QB rating even though it was with no time left, down two scores. That's a play that should be ignored in any rational discussion of his performance. From watching him play, I haven't seen a noticeable drop off in the 4th quarter, although the stats may be worse because the situation often dictates not settling for the safe throw as often.


That's exactly what I did. You missed it a few pages back, but it's worth re-posting. It's broken down in 3 different ways, including removing the Atlanta pick.


So let's take a look at Cam's 4th quarter numbers in his 5 losses, which is what we were talking about:
____________________________________________________________________________

Arizona_______ C/ATT YDS AVG_ TD_ INT_RATING
First 3 quarters: 15/16 322 20.1 2TD 1INT 132.3
4th quarter: ____9/17 91 5.4 0TD 0INT 68.5
Garbage time: ___N/A
Adjusted 4th: ___N/A

Advanced:
4th quarter:____9/19 84 4.4 0TD 0INT 60.0


Green Bay_____ C/ATT YDS AVG_ TD_ INT_RATING
First 3 quarters: 17/30 243 8.1 1TD 3INT 54.0
4th quarter: ___11/16 189 11.8 0TD 0INT 108.6
Garbage time: ___4/6 77 12.8 0TD 0INT 109.7
Adjusted 4th: ___7/10 112 10.2 0TD 0INT 107.0

Advanced:
4th quarter: ___11/19 174 9.1 0TD 0INT 88.5
Adjusted 4th: ___7/13 97 7.5 0TD 0INT 78.0


Bears_________ C/ATT YDS AVG_ TD_ INT_RATING
First 3 quarters: 18/29 273 9.4 0TD 1INT 78.6
4th quarter: ____9/17 101 5.94 1TD 0INT 90.6
Garbage time: ___6/7 77 11.0 1TD 0INT 152.0
Adjusted 4th: ___3/10 24 2.2 0TD 0INT 39.6

Saints________ C/ATT YDS AVG_ TD_ INT_RATING
First 3 quarters: 12/16 174 10.9 1 TD 1INT 104.7
4th quarter: ____4/15 50 3.33 1TD 0INT 63.2
Garbage time: ___N/A
Adjusted 4th: ___N/A

*Alternate:
First 3 quarters: 13/20 179 8.95 2TD 1INT 106.0
4th quarter: 3/11 45 4.09 0TD 0INT 44.1


Falcons_______ C/ATT YDS AVG_ TD_ INT_RATING
First 3 quarters: 15/24 163 6.79 0TD 1INT 65.1
4th quarter: ____6/11 74 6.7 0TD 2INT 36.0
Garbage time: ___5/8 62 7.8 0TD 1INT 46.9
Adjusted 4th: ___1/3 12 4.0 0TD 1INT 6.9%

*Alternate:
Garbage time: ___5/7 62 7.8 0TD 0INT 98.5

__________________________________________________________________________


Definitions
Garbage time: an offensive possession in the final minutes or seconds of the 4th quarter where the scoring outcome of the drive cannot alter the outcome of the game(i.e. losing by more than 8 points)
Adjusted rating: just the normal 4th quarter QB rating minus garbage time stats. His actual rating when still playing to win.
Advanced rating: Sack adjusted rating. Depending on the school of thought you subscribe to, some advanced QB statistics and analysts include sacks against their passing attempts, and negative yards against their passing yards.
*Alternate: Without the first 4 pass plays of the 4th quarter against the Saints, the scoring end of a 3rd quarter drive which began at Saints 19 yard line in the 4th and culminated with a scoring TD but crossed over into the 4th quarter for 2 minutes. Without his final Hail Mary interception against the Falcons, because it shouldn't really count against him. See below.




RECAP: Cam Newton's QB rating in our 5 losses
First 3 quarters average rating: 86.9(*87.2)
4th quarter rating: 73.4(*63.7)
Adjusted 4th quarter rating(outside of garbage time) : 57.0

Sack adjusted 4th quarter rating: 67.7
Sack adjusted 4th quarter rating(outside of garbage time): 49.5

Garbage time QB rating: 102.9(with Atlanta pick. without: 120.1 )


So basically if you just look at your regular, full 4th quarter rating, he drops from an above average of 86.9 during the first 3 quarters to a sub-par 73.4 in the 4th. Now where it gets interesting is when you consider that taking out garbage time stats he drops to a Clausenesque 57.0! Pretty atrocious. And if you happen to subscribe to advanced stat school of thought, even his full sack adjusted 4th quarter rating average was a pretty ugly 67.7 and taking out garbage time drops him down to a shameful 49.5.


Conclusion: How much does the pressure to make a comeback win in the 4th quarter affect Cam in our losses? Well he goes from an above average 86.9 passer rating in the first 3 quarters down to a paralyzing 57.0 when we're tied or down and driving to come back from behind in the 4th.

The irony? His garbage time rating is a 102.9, better than any other quarter rating or average, and better than his career rating of 82.8. What this says is that it's not so much the pressure of running out of time and having to speed up that bothers him, but the pressure of actually winning the close game, when we're tied or behind.


*Alternate:
Just because those 2 events skewed his 4th quarter numbers quite a bit I threw this in as well. As expected, his first 3 quarters average improves to 87.2 while his complete 4th quarter rating average drops down to 63.7, 53.2 outside of garbage time, and his sack adjusted rating plummets to a lowly 45.7 outside of garbage time. No matter which one you look at, they're all bad. Now that's not really revealing anything different but what is worth pointing out is his actual garbage time rating. If you take out the Hail Mary interception his garbage time rating actually goes up to an elite 120.1! Garbage time vs 4th quarter = 120.1 vs 45.7. Ouch! If we attributed that difference to clutch factor he'd be a -74.4, the difference between his play under pressure and when the game's already lost. The moment the pressure's gone, he skyrockets. So he was elite in the 4th in losses but only when it didn't count:(




PS: mav, that's how I can say that. Because numbers don't lie and it's pretty clear he drops big time. And yes the argument is very much Cam-centric. Again the biggest revelation is his pre-garbage rating...57.0 to 102 in garbage time. It's like a freaking switch turning on and off. That's pressure affecting your game. And why would anyone not expect a team built around Cam, the quarterback, to not take a huge nose-dive when he does? It's going to be very much centered around him and so will our success or failure. I mean he IS the quarterback, and he doesn't have a game manager role here.

Edited by Pantherball, 29 October 2011 - 04:59 PM.


#147 Stroupe-a-loop

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Posted 29 October 2011 - 05:03 PM

Haha.

#148 Pantherball

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Posted 29 October 2011 - 05:11 PM

Oh look who finally decided to show his face. Welcome back, you're late. Yeah I figured that was about all you could say to that;) Doesn't look nearly as good as what you showed, does it?

#149 Simple and Plain

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Posted 29 October 2011 - 05:13 PM

Regardless, the sample size is too small to draw a significant conclusion. Once wins and garbage time are removed we are looking at basically a handful of drives.

#150 Stroupe-a-loop

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Posted 29 October 2011 - 05:19 PM

Listen man, I don't know if I made my point badly or what but what I was trying to say was that it's too small a sample size to draw conclusions from. If we get to the playoffs three straight years and Cam plays poorly, sure he's not clutch. But for a guy that wants to throw around statistics all day you have to know that 7 games is statistically meaningless. You shouldn't be wasting your time breaking down this bullshit. Go home and tell your wife or whoever that you love them and just walk away friend.

#151 Pantherball

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Posted 29 October 2011 - 05:20 PM

Regardless, the sample size is too small to draw a significant conclusion. Once wins and garbage time are removed we are looking at basically a handful of drives.


Lol. You have it backwards there buddy but nice try.

We're looking at 5 full quarters in 5 losses, not drives, with 3 junk drives stripped out in the final 2 minutes. You have it completely backwards: the majority of our drives are in our losses, not our wins and garbage time. But they are BOTH there. The numbers show the entire quarters, just broken down 3 different ways.

Exactly how many losses do you WANT us to have? 5's good for me in a year. If it was up to me, I'd have loved to have used a smaller sample size than this.

#152 Stroupe-a-loop

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Posted 29 October 2011 - 05:23 PM

Lol. You have it backwards there buddy but nice try.

We're looking at 5 full quarters


OMG not five full quarters. You know who had a couple game winning drives as a rookie? Vince Young. We should go get that cat. He clearly has his head together and will be money for years to come.

#153 The_Mango55

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Posted 29 October 2011 - 05:24 PM

No not at all. I just hate it when people call for the heads of our D after our losses, while ignoring the bigger issue. I like seeing if things really are what they appear to be. And they're not. But again, this is more about Cam, not the D. I'm not saying I'm satisfied with the D. I'm just saying him and this offense has been a much bigger factor in our losses and backed it up with actual numbers.


There is no bigger issue than our defensive play.

And I think you're under the impression that points scored in the 4th quarter are worth more than points scored in the other 3.

I know you ignore advanced statistics (unless they support your argument or you invent them yourself) but our defense really has been the worst in the NFL up until the Washington game, and has been the biggest reason we've lost most of the games

#154 Pantherball

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Posted 29 October 2011 - 05:25 PM

There is no bigger issue than our defensive play.

And I think you're under the impression that points scored in the 4th quarter are worth more than points scored in the other 3.



A 57.0 QB passer rating in the 4th quarters says otherwise. So does a 48% completion ratio and 5.96 yards per attempt. 40% and 4.45 when counting sacks.

You cannot march down the field and score when you are down and need to pass when playing like that. In other words winning becomes impossible, UNLESS the defense get us a pick 6...and then a safety on top. So yeah maybe we should blame the defense for not doing that.

Denial helps ignore an issue. It doesn't fix it no matter how much you look away and try to deflect it elsewhere. You could put the Ravens D in that situation, and it wouldn't have made a difference. We would have still lost.

Edited by Pantherball, 29 October 2011 - 05:30 PM.


#155 Stroupe-a-loop

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Posted 29 October 2011 - 05:26 PM

A 57.0 QB rating in the 4th quarters says otherwise.


A 57 quarterback rating that you just made up.

#156 mav1234

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Posted 29 October 2011 - 05:26 PM

You really think 5 (partial) quarters is enough to single out a player as "not being clutch"?