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A scary stat for the offense...


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#1 firstdayfan

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Posted 11 November 2011 - 08:50 AM

The offense has been nothing short of spectacular throughout the season. People complained that we weren't running the ball enough or effectively but I feel like that has changed a lot since the first two games. It seems like we finally have a balanced almost unstoppable offense here in Carolina, one that would make Steve Beuerlein, Patrick Jeffers, and Mushin Muhammed look like a high school squad. So why are we 2-6? Is it our swiss cheese run defense that allows opposing offenses to chew up the clock and keep Cam's towel on his head? Is it our horrid special teams which allows huge returns, misses chip shot field goals, and can't get figure out how to get the ball past the 30 yard line?

Actually I have another theory...one that actually involves the offense and their inability to score points. And there is one scary stat that makes this problem painfully obvious. The offense is ranked 5th in the NFL in terms of yardage with 415.1 yards per game, 5th in passing (285) and 8th in rushing (129). However, we are ranked 16th in scoring at just 23.4 points per game. How does this compare to the 99' offense you ask? In 1999 we averaged only 355 yards per game, 60 yards less, but averaged 26.3 points per game, over 3 points more and just in case you forgot that team went 8-8.

But hey, that was over a decade ago...how does our scoring compare to other high powered offenses today? The top 5 offenses average 31, 27, 25, and 34 points per game respectively...and then the Panthers at 23 points per game.

So why do we not score more points? Turnovers? Terrible starting field Position? 80 yard plus drives that eat up clock? Rookie QB? Whatever the reason its obvious that even though the defense is bad and the special teams is worse the offense needs to be more effective on the scoreboard. I guess the old adage is correct, you have to score more points than the other guys if you wanna win.

#2 Jesse

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Posted 11 November 2011 - 09:20 AM

To those who don't want to read:
5th in Total Yards
5th in Passing Yards
8th in Rushing Yards
16th in Scoring

#3 Rhys

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Posted 11 November 2011 - 09:24 AM

We've missed on a lot of redzone opportunities. I bet there's a stat out there about our redzone efficiency that may be more telling.

#4 Keith Moons Liver

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Posted 11 November 2011 - 09:24 AM

offense = points, not yards
we have an average offense

#5 BigSyke

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Posted 11 November 2011 - 09:34 AM

yeah good offense could be great if could stop with stupid penalties while in the redzone and better redzone scoring.......

#6 firstdayfan

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Posted 11 November 2011 - 09:34 AM

offense = points, not yards
we have an average offense


I don't know that I would necessarily say that but I get what you mean.

#7 DeAngelo's #1 Fan(CRA)

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Posted 11 November 2011 - 09:35 AM

I wouldn't call this an average offense. I would call it a young offense. Average offenses don't put themselves in the redzone the amount of times Carolina has this year.

We have a rookie QB.....don't forget that. Redzone play always takes awhile to get down.

but don't sell short the fact Cam is getting us in the redzone more than any other QB in the NFL.....he is putting us in great situations. He is learning. Things are looking good.

Edited by CRA, 11 November 2011 - 09:39 AM.


#8 SevenSixes

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Posted 11 November 2011 - 09:41 AM

It's not a fluke that when Cam doesn't turn the ball over we win.

It's also not a fluke that we are one of the most penalized teams in the league.

It's also not a fluke that our competition in the first half was far superior to what most other teams have faced.

But..

Stay calm and carry on..

#9 panthers55

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Posted 11 November 2011 - 09:45 AM

Another rehash of a thread that has gone on ad nauseum. The offense in general is fine. But it dosn't operate in a vacuum. The statistics on how often a team scores is highly dependent on how long it has to drive the ball. Teams that start from their own 40 yard line for example are in field goal range after moving the ball 30 yards. This assumes your kicker can make a 40 yarder. Going from your 20. it would take 50 yards for a field goal try and 80 yards for a Td. Where are we in startiing field position? Near the bottom.

If we are at the top in 80 yard scoring drives we are obviously moving the ball but what people don't figure in is that if it takes 7 minutes to score the good news is that we kept the other offense off the field but if they then take 6 minutes to score on our defense, the first quarter is essentially over and we had one possession. So instead of rehashing the same old crap in the other thread lets at least give this a different spin. Those of you with access to advanced stats and the time to do it. How does our number of offensive possessions per game compare to other teams in the top five. Of thoose possessions, how many are 40 yards or less. How many are over 40 yards? Of those over 40, how many end up with punts, versus missed field goals or turnovers instead of points.

Instead of another tired discussion of points per yard which I really don't think is that informative, lets look at drives which is actually how the game is played and how scoring occurs. Or if you have new information not discussed, then do it here but lets not rehash the same old tired topic.

Thoughts?

#10 Mr. Scot

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Posted 11 November 2011 - 09:54 AM

Not terribly surprising.

They're working on his short game, but Newton is still primarily a long ball QB at this point. That type is generally known to struggle in the red zone when things are shortened up. Opposing defenses know it and adjust accordingly. So far we haven't been able to effectively counter.

Once we improve either A) our run game or B) Newton's short game, then you'll see the scoring get better. It's not bad right now, mind you. Just not quite good enough.

#11 rayzor

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Posted 11 November 2011 - 10:07 AM

other thread a million pages long about the very same thing wasn't enough?

#12 Udogg

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Posted 11 November 2011 - 10:19 AM

Not terribly surprising.

They're working on his short game, but Newton is still primarily a long ball QB at this point. That type is generally known to struggle in the red zone when things are shortened up. Opposing defenses know it and adjust accordingly. So far we haven't been able to effectively counter.

Once we improve either A) our run game or B) Newton's short game, then you'll see the scoring get better. It's not bad right now, mind you. Just not quite good enough.


TBH it seems to me we get inside the 20 almost every drive. Then it's penalty time. We have the most 1st and goal penalties in the league(don't have any stats to prove this, just seems like it).

#13 mav1234

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Posted 11 November 2011 - 10:29 AM

offense = points, not yards
we have an average offense


kinda depends. I think yardage is a reflection of how far we have to travel when we do get the ball. Points are a reflection of our entire team... not just our offense. The fewer "good" offensive opportunities, either generated through turnovers or good defensive stops, or through great special teams plays, the fewer points a team will often have even when it has a good offense relative to it's yardage totals. Obviously our offense isn't perfect, but I think things like "yards per point" undervalue field position.

No single stat is really perfect or tells the entire story.

#14 Marguide

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Posted 11 November 2011 - 10:32 AM

Another rehash of a thread that has gone on ad nauseum. The offense in general is fine. But it dosn't operate in a vacuum. The statistics on how often a team scores is highly dependent on how long it has to drive the ball. Teams that start from their own 40 yard line for example are in field goal range after moving the ball 30 yards. This assumes your kicker can make a 40 yarder. Going from your 20. it would take 50 yards for a field goal try and 80 yards for a Td. Where are we in startiing field position? Near the bottom.

If we are at the top in 80 yard scoring drives we are obviously moving the ball but what people don't figure in is that if it takes 7 minutes to score the good news is that we kept the other offense off the field but if they then take 6 minutes to score on our defense, the first quarter is essentially over and we had one possession. So instead of rehashing the same old crap in the other thread lets at least give this a different spin. Those of you with access to advanced stats and the time to do it. How does our number of offensive possessions per game compare to other teams in the top five. Of thoose possessions, how many are 40 yards or less. How many are over 40 yards? Of those over 40, how many end up with punts, versus missed field goals or turnovers instead of points.

Thoughts?


We are 30th in number of possessions per game. Surprisingly, the teams below us are the Packers and San Diego. As you would expect, we have a far worse starting field position than those teams, coming in at 24th in the league. We also do well in points per drive, ranking 6th.

The only stat in which we are off on a per drive basis is interceptions, coming in at 24th.

Given that we are 29th in penalties per game and we have more offensive than defensive penalties, and given that we are 30th in number of possessions per game, I am certain we would come in last in number of penalties per drive.

So we need to work on the interceptions and cut down the penalties, and we should score with the best teams in the league.

#15 teeray

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Posted 11 November 2011 - 10:32 AM

Our offense is currently 6th in the NFL in point per possessions. We are also 6th in the NFL in TDs per possession. Yet we are 16th in PPG. Why the big discrepancy? It is pretty easy math IMO. We aren't getting enough possessions.

Why aren't we getting more possessions? There are several reasons for this. And most of it comes back to our defense :(

Although our defense against the run is getting better every week (a trend that hopefully continues) they still rank among the worst in the NFL in attempts against (20th), yards per attempt (24th), rushing TDs (32), rushing yards per game (28th), rushing first downs (27th), and our defense is currently really bad on third down conversion rate (30th).

The result is that teams are having long sustained drives against our defense. As a result it is shortening the game and lowering the number of possessions by both teams.

Also our defense is not getting three and outs, turnovers, or keeping teams out of the endzone. The result of that is we seemingly to have to go 80 or 90 yards every drive. So our offense is having long sustained drives that are eating up the clock as well. Thus even further reducing the game time and the number of possessions.

Our offense can always get better as well. If we took care of the ball better we would obviously improve our points per possession.

But as this young defense continues to grow and with the infusion of some more talent on that side of the ball next season you will see better results with this offense in terms of PPG.

http://footballoutsi...tats/drivestats
http://espn.go.com/n...osition/defense
http://espn.go.com/n...osition/defense

Edited by teeray, 11 November 2011 - 10:51 AM.



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