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A scary stat for the offense...


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#151 teeray

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Posted 13 November 2011 - 10:54 AM

X-Clown I have nothing but time. :)

1. No. I do not use points per possession or touchdowns per possession because it does not take into consideration field position. You do. You're using fluffy stats in an illogical manner to combat an obvious point: Turnovers by the offense hurts the offense and the defense. Teams score more points off of turnovers because they get shorter field positions.

To use touchdowns per possessions for a defense ranking correctly, you have to use possessions that start at the same field position for all teams: 20 yard line. That's why your stat is meaningless. It doesn't match up with reality. YPP is the closest stat that matches up to the reality that took place on the football field. ypp+turnovers = stat that most directly relates to winning or losing. And they are both OFFENSIVE stats.


PPP and TDPP is more reflective on what you are doing on a drive by drive basis. If every team's offense had to start at the 20 yard line the TDPP of every team would get worse not better because as you said it would take away short field TDs.

So when I say that giving up 2 TDs in 4 possessions is way worse than the worst team in the league (almost twice as bad as the worst team) it is actually worse than that because I didn't even take away their short field TDs in their percentage. So it reflects even more poorly on our defense.

Plus, you suddenly seem caught up in field position but offensive YYP is even worse in that regard. It penalizes long sustained TD drives and benefits short field TD drives. It is far less representative of what an offense is doing on a drive by drive basis than TDPP.

There is a reason that no.... none... zero credible advanced statistic sites use YPP in their efficiency formulas or as an offensive efficiency rankings in any way.

But if you are concerned about starting field position and how it relates to PPP and TDPP you should be happy to learn that our offense has been so good it has been able to overcome being 24th in starting field position and still rank 6th in TDPP and PPP. Our offense is even better when you look at it in those terms. Wow.


2. Correct...offense kills our defense's YPP. Offense kills our defense's PPG. Why are you laughing? You are laughing at yourself here. You didn't get this until just now.



You missed my point. I was laughing because of course if you only use long drives and throw our all of the short field defensive drives of course your YPP improve. But that is not how the stat works. That is why it is a bad stat for judging a defense or an offense.

But what you are saying is my point about YPP not being an accurate portrayal of what your offense or defense is doing. You are making my point! It encompasses more than just offense or defense.

3. Correct! It does NOT. It doesn't HELP it. But it doesn't HURT it either. A defense can only improve an offense's YPP. I told you, you do not understand football logic therefore....STOP USING STATS. You can't use stats correctly if you do not know how they are acquired! Our defense does get 3 and outs.


No our defense doesn't. At least not at an efficient rate. We are ranked 29th in defensive DSR (Drive success rate). Drive Success Rate (the percentage of time that a team will get a first down or touchdown in a given set of four downs) is a fancy term for three and outs. We give up a first down or a TD within 4 downs on 73% of the other team's possessions. Good for 29th in the league.

Because a defense's ypp is by definition: offensive yards per point allowed. The lower the number the worst the defense's ranking. So that means what? Good field position for the other team lowers your defense's yards per point allowed ranking. DUH! Because they have to travel less. Because of turnovers and 3 and outs from our O. So stop laughing. Cause that means bad ranking for YPP on the defensive side is your offense's blame dude.

Yes that is true. But that works both ways. If your defense is not getting three and outs, getting turnovers, or controlling field position than it also can cripple an offensive YPP.

But there is also another key way for a defense to lower their YPP. Don't give up TDs. Keep the other teams to field goals and you will drastically improve you defensive YPP. By 42% per drive!!


4. And that's not reality anyway. Our defense does get force fumble recoveries. It also stops teams from scoring. It also gets interceptions when the other QB throws them. It also gets fumbles when the other offense fumbles. Just against Atlanta you saw where their offense only had 7 possessions while our offense had 10. Our offense got more tries.


But they don't get any turnovers. Whether the other teams offense gives them to us or we force them, the fact is, for whatever reason we ain't getting them. Therefore it is effecting our offensive YPP because A) we are having to travel further for points and B) we are not getting any defensive touchdowns to pad offensive YPP the way a team like Cincy has done.

5. Our defense is not primarily responsible for field position. Our special teams offense is. Our defense can only directly you get you good field position if they get a takeaway. They are not primarily responsible for those either. The other team's offense is. Those are made up of a league average 0.5 forced fumble recoveries + 1 offensive giveaway = 1.5 takeaways(league average). A giveaway is primarily made up of interceptions, followed by fumbles, followed by forced fumble recoveries. A true takeaway is a forced fumble recovery. Some people may argue a batted ball that leads to an interception is also a true takeaway, but that's not how the NFL sees it. Because a batted ball that goes up in the air more often


I just wholly disagree with this. You are trying to alleviate any responsibility from the defense for field position. That is not based in reality. Defense doesn't get a pass just because "the other team has to punt and therefore field position is solely the responsibility of the return team." Basic logic will tell you that if an opponent punts from the 50 yard line, generally speaking, your offense will have worse field position than if the other team punts from the 25. Especially in the NFL where even bad punters are really good. And since our defensive DSR is so poor and our defense is ranked 30th in yards allowed per drive (36.47) that is exactly what is happening.

Edited by teeray, 13 November 2011 - 11:43 AM.


#152 teeray

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Posted 13 November 2011 - 11:08 AM

:D

I just saw this beauty of a post and all I wanna say is please go to bed. Because I think you should get banned if you post one more stat. You just went through all that to describe: "yards per point"? It's in the definition itself.

First. That one touchdown would be 100 yards of offense minimum(football field is 100 yards) not 70.

Second. Your team is going to be throwing those interceptions from where exactly? The 20 yard line? Because those yard count in offensive YPP. So it would be ranked nearly last not first.

So if you had 1 touchdown = 100 yards
3 more at the 20 yard line= 60yards.
160/7 = 22.8 ypp.

You just described a team somewhere between Washington(20.0) and the St Louis Rams(25.1) the worst offense in the NFL and this is in a situation where they would be down 7-21 with 50 minutes of football left to play.

Unless you mean to tell me they are throwing these pics from their own endzone. So if your offense is throwing interceptions from the 0 yard marker they, would be in their own endzone, and not only would they still be just average in YPP offensively but they would be one of the most efficient offenses in scoring for the other team. They would either throw a pick 6 or throw bombs and the other team would get guaranteed 3 point FG tries. So they would be down 7-21 with 50 minutes left to play.

And.....

Third. It would kill your defense's YPP. Which is why Indi who is ranked 30th in YPP has a 32nd ranked defense in PPG. Carolina who is ranked 21st in YPP has a 29th ranked defense in YPP.

Which is why when I refer to efficient offenses I don't just use YPP. I use BOTH: turnovers + ypp. When I wanna know the efficiency of a defense: I have to take out turnovers because of exactly what you just described. You can count pick 6's though to subtract points from a defense's PPG.

If you also throw in penalties and yards lost...we would be ranked easily the worst offense in the NFL, far below St. Louis.

Once again you just proved ypp is the best way to measure an offense's scoring efficiency and proved you don't know how to use stats or what they mean and how they are calculated.

You also proved to me earlier that points per possession is the worst way to measure defense's efficiency.


I am not sure you understand YPP after reading this post. Every TD scoring drive after a kick off =/= 100 yards in YPP calculations.

YPP is calculated by total yards divided by total points scored. So a 70 yard TD drive is 10 YPP. Not 14.2 YPP (if you divided by 100). Special team return yardage is not calculated in total yardage and therefore it isn't calculated in YPP. Therefore my example was correct and the team would have a YYP of 10 yards and would lead the NFL.

Because you don't understand how YPP is calculated it makes the rest of this post invalid.

Edited by teeray, 13 November 2011 - 11:58 AM.


#153 Jangler

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Posted 13 November 2011 - 11:26 AM

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