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2012 Election Thread

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#91 pantherfan49


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Posted 30 December 2011 - 09:49 AM

I was just looking over some recent general election polling and I find it very odd that Obama is doing so well in some solidly republican states.

- He's trailing within the margin of error against both Ron Paul and Mitt Romney in Texas.

- He's ahead of Romney, Paul, & Gingrich within the MOE in South Carolina.

- He trails Romney within the MOE in Georgia, but leads Gingrich and Paul by 3 & 4 points according to the polls I read.

- He's down by 3 to Romney in Arizona and ahead of both Gingrich and Paul.

I just find it very odd that Obama is polling so well in these states that I don't see any way he carries in the election. It's a bad sign for the republicans, not so much because I think Obama is a threat to actually win those states, but because, given the current economic/political climate, any GOP candidate should be beating Obama by 10-15 points in those states, save maybe Georgia as it was fairly close in '08.

Just seems very odd to me. Especially since the polls show Romney ahead in Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, both states Obama won and that are traditionally blue-leans. And yet he's doing so well down south in these solid red states? Very odd.

The difference in this election is going to be voter turnout. Obama may poll well in South Carolina, for example, where 29% of the population is African American, a segment where he surprisingly holds a 92% approval rating, but that same segment has historically not turned out for elections.

I don't think Romney can win NH, but I do think PA is in play.