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2012 Election Thread


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#85 mmmbeans

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Posted 12 December 2011 - 08:59 AM

not ready? he and bachmann flat out aren't intelligent enough to be on the stage.

#86 cookinwithgas

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Posted 12 December 2011 - 09:27 AM

Thats not very clear thinking. Everyone knows its all those college learned pantywaists that got us into this mess. Whatever mess you want to complain about I mean. We need below average intellegence in the White House so problems are not overthought.

#87 Catalyst

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Posted 21 December 2011 - 04:26 AM

CNN Poll: Obama gains strength in 2012 matchups

Posted by
CNN Political Editor Paul Steinhauser

Washington (CNN) - President Barack Obama's numbers are on the rise in two important indicators of his reelection chances, according to a new national survey.

A CNN/ORC International Poll out Tuesday indicates the president's margins have increased against five possible Republican presidential challengers in hypothetical general election matchups and that Obama's approval rating is up five points since mid-November.

Read full results (pdf).

According to the poll, Obama leads former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney 52%-45% in a possible 2012 showdown. Romney, who's making his second bid for the GOP nomination, held a 51%-47% margin over the president in last month's survey. Obama also holds the same 52%-45% advantage over Rep. Ron Paul of Texas. Last month the president had a 51%-47% margin over Paul, who's making his third run for the White House.

The survey indicates that Newt Gingrich doesn't fare as well against the president in a possible general election matchup, with Obama up by 16 points, 56% to 40%. Last month Obama led Gingrich 53%-45%. The president holds an 18 point advantage over Texas Gov. Rick Perry, up from a seven point margin in November. And he leads Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota by 19 points, up from a 12 point advantage last month.

"Bill Clinton and George W. Bush - the last two presidents who won reelection - had roughly this same amount of support in December of the year before the election, but so did Bush's father in December of 1991. He ended up losing in the general election," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "Polls taken this far in advance of an election are not meant to be predictions of the ultimate outcome."

The survey also indicates that the partisan battle over extending the payroll tax cut may be partially responsible for the jump in the president's approval rating numbers.

According to the poll, 49% of Americans approve of the job Obama's doing in the White House, up five points from last month, with 48% saying they disapprove, down six points from mid-November. The 49% approval rating is the president's highest since May, when his number hit 54% thanks to a bounce following the killing of Osama bin Laden. Since then, in CNN polling, Obama's approval rating has hovered in the mid-40s.

"President Barack Obama's approval rating appears to be fueled by dramatic gains among middle-income Americans," adds Holland. "The data suggest that the debate over the payroll tax is helping Obama's efforts to portray himself as the defender of the middle class."

Obama's gains have come at the expense of the Republicans in Congress and the GOP in general. By a 50% to 31% margin, people questioned say they have more confidence in the president than in congressional Republicans to handle the major issues facing the country. Obama held a much narrower 44% to 39% margin in March.

And the GOP's overall favorable rating has dropped to six points, to 43%, since June, while the Democrats' positive rating remained steady at 55%.

"The Democrats do particularly well among middle income Americans, while the Republicans win support only from the top end of the income scale," adds Holland.

Overall, only 16% say they approve of the job Congress is doing, with 83% giving lawmakers from both parties the thumbs down. The Congressional disapproval rating has topped 80% since August in CNN polling.

The survey indicates that Obama remains personally popular, with three-quarters saying they approve of him as a person.

"Overall, it's not a bad position for an incumbent to be in as the calendar turns to an election year, but there are many months to go," says Holland.

The CNN poll was conducted by ORC International from Dec. 16 to Dec. 18, with 1,015 adult Americans questioned by telephone. The survey's overall sampling error is plus or minus three percentage points.


:beatdeadhorse5:

#88 Catalyst

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Posted 24 December 2011 - 06:16 AM

So Obama basically just ass-raped the House GOP over this tax cut deal. Not only did they look like pricks for not passing it sooner, they only arranged for it to be put off for 2 months, which means it'll come back right smack in the middle of the campaign. Do they think this is going to help them then?

Obama is using their own strategy against them: over-simplify an issue that the majority of voters will be in favor of (not seeing their taxes raised), ignore the details and paint it in as broad and straight-forward a way as possible, then slam the other side for not doing exactly what you say they should do.

The republicans made the kind of mistake on this that I would expect out of the democrats. They allowed Obama to dictate the terms of the debate, were indecisive, showed no backbone, and caved in the end to the demands of the other side, all the while failing to properly explain their side of the argument to mainstream voters.

Obama's approval rating is up as a result and even some republicans don't understand what the House GOP were trying to accomplish by stalling. And Obama gets to do this all over again in 2 months during his campaign for re-election. So yeah, he basically owned them on this one politically.

#89 pantherfan49

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Posted 24 December 2011 - 12:31 PM

So Obama basically just ass-raped the House GOP over this tax cut deal. Not only did they look like pricks for not passing it sooner, they only arranged for it to be put off for 2 months, which means it'll come back right smack in the middle of the campaign. Do they think this is going to help them then?

Obama is using their own strategy against them: over-simplify an issue that the majority of voters will be in favor of (not seeing their taxes raised), ignore the details and paint it in as broad and straight-forward a way as possible, then slam the other side for not doing exactly what you say they should do.

The republicans made the kind of mistake on this that I would expect out of the democrats. They allowed Obama to dictate the terms of the debate, were indecisive, showed no backbone, and caved in the end to the demands of the other side, all the while failing to properly explain their side of the argument to mainstream voters.

Obama's approval rating is up as a result and even some republicans don't understand what the House GOP were trying to accomplish by stalling. And Obama gets to do this all over again in 2 months during his campaign for re-election. So yeah, he basically owned them on this one politically.


The Republican proposal was for a year long extension. The Dem proposal for two months.

But you are right, Obama is out-malingering Repubs right now.

#90 Catalyst

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Posted 30 December 2011 - 06:15 AM

I was just looking over some recent general election polling and I find it very odd that Obama is doing so well in some solidly republican states.

- He's trailing within the margin of error against both Ron Paul and Mitt Romney in Texas.

- He's ahead of Romney, Paul, & Gingrich within the MOE in South Carolina.

- He trails Romney within the MOE in Georgia, but leads Gingrich and Paul by 3 & 4 points according to the polls I read.

- He's down by 3 to Romney in Arizona and ahead of both Gingrich and Paul.

I just find it very odd that Obama is polling so well in these states that I don't see any way he carries in the election. It's a bad sign for the republicans, not so much because I think Obama is a threat to actually win those states, but because, given the current economic/political climate, any GOP candidate should be beating Obama by 10-15 points in those states, save maybe Georgia as it was fairly close in '08.

Just seems very odd to me. Especially since the polls show Romney ahead in Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, both states Obama won and that are traditionally blue-leans. And yet he's doing so well down south in these solid red states? Very odd.

#91 pantherfan49

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Posted 30 December 2011 - 09:49 AM

I was just looking over some recent general election polling and I find it very odd that Obama is doing so well in some solidly republican states.

- He's trailing within the margin of error against both Ron Paul and Mitt Romney in Texas.

- He's ahead of Romney, Paul, & Gingrich within the MOE in South Carolina.

- He trails Romney within the MOE in Georgia, but leads Gingrich and Paul by 3 & 4 points according to the polls I read.

- He's down by 3 to Romney in Arizona and ahead of both Gingrich and Paul.

I just find it very odd that Obama is polling so well in these states that I don't see any way he carries in the election. It's a bad sign for the republicans, not so much because I think Obama is a threat to actually win those states, but because, given the current economic/political climate, any GOP candidate should be beating Obama by 10-15 points in those states, save maybe Georgia as it was fairly close in '08.

Just seems very odd to me. Especially since the polls show Romney ahead in Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, both states Obama won and that are traditionally blue-leans. And yet he's doing so well down south in these solid red states? Very odd.


The difference in this election is going to be voter turnout. Obama may poll well in South Carolina, for example, where 29% of the population is African American, a segment where he surprisingly holds a 92% approval rating, but that same segment has historically not turned out for elections.

I don't think Romney can win NH, but I do think PA is in play.