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what went wrong with the panthers run defense?


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#16 carpanfan96

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Posted 31 January 2012 - 11:01 AM

Here you go

Atlanta game total rushes Mid/Guard - 14 for 54 yards, 3.9 YPC. 2 gains over 10+ yards.
Texans game total rushes Mid/Guard - 8 for 47 yards, 5.9 YPC, 1 gain over 10+ yards
Tampa Bay game totals Mid/Guard - 11 for 52, 4.7 YPC, 1 gain over 10+ yards
NO game totals Mid/Guard - 12 for 65 yards, 5.4 YPC, 0 gains over 10+ yards
Total for last 4 games Mid/guard - 45 for 218 yards, 4.8 YPC, 4 gains over 10+ yards

Percentage of runs Mid/Guard - 44 percent, percentage of yards - 43 percent.


So it breaks down as this

Whole season - 4.5 YPC, Last four games with out Fua/McClain - 4.8 YPC
Whole season - 50%, last four games with out Fua/McClain - 44%.


Adding on here, the total amount of runs against Carolina in those 4 games was 107 for over 500 yards. Most of the damage was against Hardy's side of the field during those games.

The biggest difference in the last four games is that minus the NO game where the whole team sucked, the Panthers shot out to leads early and forced the other teams hands.

Edited by carpanfan96, 31 January 2012 - 11:18 AM.


#17 R0CKnR0LLA

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Posted 31 January 2012 - 11:03 AM

what went wrong with the panthers run defense?


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#18 Riverboat Ron

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Posted 31 January 2012 - 11:21 AM

Great stats. This is exactly why I'd have no problem with us going DE/DT with our 1st pick and DE/DT in the 2nd. Football is won in the trenches both offensively and defensively. Imagine our defensive line with Coples or Brockers in it. Either guy would add much needed size and strength to the inside or outside of our line making our linebackers jobs easier.

#19 nosuchthingasapanther

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Posted 31 January 2012 - 12:24 PM

aside from injuries, anyway...

from an article from an inferior site using stats from footballoutsiders that P55 has mentioned before but i can't remember which threads.
one thing i did see when i looked at the percentages of how often the ball was getting run in each direction

of the 391 RB carries against the panthers D
LEFT END - 11%
LEFT TACKLE - 14%
MID/GUARD- 50%
RIGHT TACKLE -12%
RIGHT END- 13%


i'm looking forward to seeing the individual stats on those guys in the middle.

as much as i hate it, hardy may need upgrading. i think he's good/decent as a pass rusher, but a bit of a liability in the run game.

not sure what anderson's problem was. maybe he'll perform better when beason is back in the middle.


if this is accurate, then the fact that the runs were so evenly distributed on both the right and left side indicate that ypc difference shows who gave up the bigger plays, and not the main weakness of the line.

one or two big plays can easily skew ypc stats.

teams don't dedicate 50% of their run plays on a particular area of the defense for no reason.

anyone who knows what their looking at when they watch carolina's defense struggle to get off the field can see teams punish the center of the dline over and over, week in and week out.

Edited by number28, 31 January 2012 - 12:27 PM.


#20 panthers55

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Posted 31 January 2012 - 12:37 PM

here's the deal w/ me, though.

while it's obvious that we were worst as far as ypa is concerned on the right side, we were still abysmal in the middle. we were 32nd in the league on the right side but in the middle we were still 31st. what makes that an even bigger concern is that 55% of all RB carries were up the gut.

both DE and DT are needed. we need a big run stuffer in the middle in addition to edwards (who is still an unknown commodity at this point) and we need someone who can help seal off the edge.


What you have to seperate is how many of those runs up the middle broke into the secondary for big gains which ups the average yards per carry. Without Beason in there and even Connor for stretches not only did we get gashed on the right side and up the middle, but they were sometimes for huge gains. Hopefully with Beason back and someone solid at SAM if not davis, teams don't break big ones.

http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/dl

The problem was not just a porous line but once they got to second level we were awful bringing them down (31st). On power running which is stopping them on 3rd or 4th and short we were right at the league average (64% versus league average of 62%).. Again this suggests that the line was part of the problem but the secondary and linebackers were poor in run support as well. Unless we address the back seven as well, getting a DT or even DE won't solve the problem. That is why I am in favor of going defense with most of the draft.

#21 panthers55

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Posted 31 January 2012 - 12:44 PM

if this is accurate, then the fact that the runs were so evenly distributed on both the right and left side indicate that ypc difference shows who gave up the bigger plays, and not the main weakness of the line.

one or two big plays can easily skew ypc stats.

teams don't dedicate 50% of their run plays on a particular area of the defense for no reason.

anyone who knows what their looking at when they watch carolina's defense struggle to get off the field can see teams punish the center of the dline over and over, week in and week out.


The NFl averages for all teams were as follows:

right end- 11%
right tackle- 14%
middle guard- 50%
Left tackle- 15%
left end- 11%

So your premise is not supported by the facts. They didn't pound it up the middle on us more than the league average. Remember that teams usually run to their strengths not the opposition's weaknesses all things considered.

http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/dl

#22 rayzor

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Posted 31 January 2012 - 12:50 PM

What you have to seperate is how many of those runs up the middle broke into the secondary for big gains which ups the average yards per carry. Without Beason in there and even Connor for stretches not only did we get gashed on the right side and up the middle, but they were sometimes for huge gains. Hopefully with Beason back and someone solid at SAM if not davis, teams don't break big ones.

http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/dl

The problem was not just a porous line but once they got to second level we were awful bringing them down (31st). On power running which is stopping them on 3rd or 4th and short we were right at the league average (64% versus league average of 62%).. Again this suggests that the line was part of the problem but the secondary and linebackers were poor in run support as well. Unless we address the back seven as well, getting a DT or even DE won't solve the problem. That is why I am in favor of going defense with most of the draft.

gotcha. i do think that there are too many RBs getting through to the 2nd level. if the interior Dline is made more stout in the run game, the inadequacies of the DBs against the run won't be so glaring and won't be abused so frequently.

i agree about going defense with most of the daft. i hope that whatever we do starts down front and them works back. we've got to win the trenches.

#23 Montsta

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Posted 31 January 2012 - 01:29 PM

There is wayyyyy too much logical discussion and rational thought in this thread for me to be associated with it. I will go now. Good day gents.

#24 sharkman

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Posted 31 January 2012 - 01:50 PM

You must spread some Reputation around before giving it to rayzor again.
Some rep to panthers55 for those two post too.

Good off season stuff here. Sure beats fashion conversations :-)

#25 Mr. Scot

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Posted 31 January 2012 - 02:29 PM

I always prefer looking at the entire front seven when we're talking about run defense, not just the line. I like that this article covers more than just the front guys.

I'd agree that the ends (Hardy in particular) started off the year a lot better than they finished it. The question you'd ask yourself would be how much time they had to spend making up for poor DT play.

And while I know we're discussing things other than injuries, it's hard to discount just how much Jon Beason was missed.

#26 DickolausJ

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Posted 31 January 2012 - 02:35 PM

Hopefully Edwards, Beason, and Davis (crosses fingers) being healthy will help a lot. Also a FS that can tackle won't hurt either.

It all related. Can't stop runs up the middle then the entire defense has to compensate. The team is so worried about not getting gashed for 5 yards a carry up the middle and RBs start bouncing it on the outside.

Hopefully our 2 rookie DTs improve or we get someone in the draft.

#27 rayzor

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Posted 31 January 2012 - 02:37 PM

Hopefully Edwards, Beason, and Davis (crosses fingers) being healthy will help a lot. Also a FS that can tackle won't hurt either.

It all related. Can't stop runs up the middle then the entire defense has to compensate. The team is so worried about not getting gashed for 5 yards a carry up the middle and RBs start bouncing it on the outside.

Hopefully our 2 rookie DTs improve or we get someone in the draft.

good points and agreed.

#28 DickolausJ

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Posted 31 January 2012 - 02:37 PM

For the record Jason Williams was just horrendous at getting off blocks. And I did think Neblett, Kearse, and Shirley were better then Fua and McClain just from what I watched.

#29 Mvp2014

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Posted 31 January 2012 - 02:47 PM

Maybe if we had more than 2 legit starters in our front 7 we could do better

#30 Frash Brastard

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Posted 31 January 2012 - 02:53 PM

What you have to seperate is how many of those runs up the middle broke into the secondary for big gains which ups the average yards per carry. Without Beason in there and even Connor for stretches not only did we get gashed on the right side and up the middle, but they were sometimes for huge gains. Hopefully with Beason back and someone solid at SAM if not davis, teams don't break big ones.

http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/dl

The problem was not just a porous line but once they got to second level we were awful bringing them down (31st). On power running which is stopping them on 3rd or 4th and short we were right at the league average (64% versus league average of 62%).. Again this suggests that the line was part of the problem but the secondary and linebackers were poor in run support as well. Unless we address the back seven as well, getting a DT or even DE won't solve the problem. That is why I am in favor of going defense with most of the draft.


eeyup


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