Why trading up won't happen:
According to 2 sites I check concerning Team needs (FF and Walter Football) No 4-3 has a DT in their top 4 needs except Seattle (pick #12, but they need QB, DE, G, BEFORE DT) and New Orleans (NO first rounder; DT is their second need behind LB).
Ah, but can he not also play DE in the 3-4? Yes is that answer. What 3-4 Teams have DE as a top 4 need? New England. How much would it take them to move up? Well, both of their first rounders (27 and 31) and a third rounder might not be enough to get a deal done with the Skins, Jags or Dolphins, depending on which team picks before the Panthers.
So, since Seattle is likely to take Melvin Ingram, Ryan Tannehill, or David DeCastro at 12 instead of spending a second or third rounder to move ahead of the Panthers--not for the fourth highest need. They need a QB and protection for that QB first and foremost, Pass rush second. Brockers is raw and has shown only upside potential in the pass rush dept. Expect a DE to be their first defensive player taken.
New England poses the biggest threat to stealing Brockers away from us because they have several early picks and fewer needs. I am not sure anyone in New England would consider giving up three picks (27, 31, and probably a third rounder), but with few needs and multiple picks, they could.
Of course, you have to consider the fact that Jax needs a DE, CB, and WR. If Coples, Blackmon, or Claiborne is on the table, they would be less inclined to trade with NE.
I think the best thing to do is to sit tight and wait for Brockers to fall. We can assume that the first five picks will be (no order) Luck, RGIII, Kalil, Claiborne, and Blackmon. Then you have Coples who will be attractive to Jax or Miami. Richardson could factor in, and so many teams need T help, that I see a trade up for a T more likely. Here is how it will shake down from the sixth pick, with the first five gone:
6. Washington--They need QB, WR and G badly. A bit early for either. If they do not trade up with St. Louis, they may look to trade down like they did last year. If they do not move up to #2, Washington is the team that is most likely to be looking to deal
. Hope they deal with St.Louis. However, if they sign a free agent QB, look for them to give him protection or weapons, so DeCastro or even Michael Floyd could go earlier than expected. Washington could take Coples or Brockers as well, but they would be taking BPA over need.
IF ST. LOUIS is picking here, they probably take Reiff--he is a reach here, but the OT crop is small and the need is big. They could also trade down again, accumulation picks, but dropping to 27/31 is a huge drop. I see them dropping 3-5 more spots, assuring themselves of getting either Reiff, Martin, or Adams.
7. Jacksonville needs a QB, but if Coples is on the board, he is a Jag
. However, if gone, Jax shops this pick--their biggest needs are WR, CB, and T--or they take Reiff if he is on the board.
8. Miami--I think Miami is looking at Reiff and Upshaw, with DeCastro as a long shot. They could trade back, but it depends on free agency. Look the for Phins to like what is on the board and not trade it away. There is a scarcity of OTs and few 3-4 OLBs promise the greatness Upshaw does. DeCastro is a future pro bowler, so he could go top 10 as well.
So, the biggest threats to trade down are going to be Washington and maybe Jacksonville. New England is perhaps the only threat to trade up for Brockers. With these odds, the smart thing would be to stay put and not panic by trading up. I seriously doubt MH would trade up at this point anyway-been burned too often.
Edited by MHS831, 19 February 2012 - 10:46 AM.