So after last nights game I decided to look at the probability of the Canes some how getting to the postseason and here is what I came up with.
Washington is the team that we have to catch, I don't see another team (including us) that might be able to catch them as they are one of the more experienced teams and they tend to thrive around the end of the season.
Now I looked at the remaining schedule for the Canes and for the Caps and here is what I came up with.
Six out of the final twelve games for the Caps come against playoff teams (Chicago, Detroit, Philadelphia, Florida, and New York).
Seven out of the Caps final twelve games are played on the road and five out of those seven games are played against playoff teams, and good playoff teams at that. This is good because Washington is one of the worst road teams in the Eastern Conference.
Now here is the season series between each team that the Caps face and how I think it could play out before the end of the season...
1. (Loss) @ Winnipeg Jets (2-1-1): This game is a toss up but being that it's on the road, I would give the edge to the Jets.
2. (Loss) @ Chicago Blackhawks (0-0-0): These teams haven't played each other yet, but again being that it's on the road the edge goes to the Hawks.
3. (Loss) @ Detroit Red Wings (1-0-0): The Caps have to play the Wings on the road which is a tough task, edge Wings.
4. (Loss) @ Philadelphia Flyers (1-2-0): Caps don't play well against the Flyers, edge Flyers.
5. (Win). vs. Winnipeg Jets (2-1-1): Caps tend to handle the Jets at home and will probably do so again, edge Caps.
6. (Win) vs. Minnesota Wild (0-0-0): These teams haven't played but the Caps are the better team and are playing at home, edge Caps.
7. (Loss) vs. Buffalo Sabres (1-2-0): The Caps can't seem to figure out Buffalo this year, edge Sabres.
8. (Loss) @ Boston Bruins (2-1-0): The Caps will be playing on the road and when they play on the road they usually lose, edge Bruins.
9. (Win) vs. Montreal Canadians (3-0-0): The Caps are undefeated against the Habs this year and will probably stay that way, edge Caps.
10. (Win) @ Tampa Bay Lightning (3-1-1): The Caps have complete control over the Lightning this year and though they are on the road they still get the win, edge Caps.
11. (Win) vs. Florida Panthers (3-2-0): The Caps will be at home and should be able to get the win, edge Caps.
12. (Loss) @ New York Rangers (1-2-0) The Caps are facing the best team in the conference at home, edge Rangers.
Final Points: 88
Now this is just one scenario but either way I don't see the Caps winning more than five out of their last twelve.
That leaves us with a small chance, we have 69 points and with ten wins out of our last eleven games we would have 89 points and be in the playoffs.
Six out of our last eleven games are against non-playoff teams, so those are must wins and we are going to have to step up against teams like Detroit and Florida.
Hopefully this will get interesting down the stretch.
Canes have to win 10 out of 11!!!
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