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Wide Receiver

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[quote name='ClarkCam' timestamp='1333345966' post='1713240']
"You can get 80% of the production of a elite receiver from a decent receiver with an elite quarterback".... Where did you pull that from?
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From watching the NFL the last 15 years. I don't feel there is a Calvin Johnson or Steve Smith type of receiver in this draft (and the Steve Smiths of the world are only found by sheer accident) and those are the only kind of receivers I would demand to take with our first pick no matter what. Otherwise, Blackmon would be nice but I wouldn't cry if we missed him, and the rest all hinge on realizing their potential, in which case you should be able to nab one later in the draft and mold him into a playmaker.

But you take an elite QB away from his receiver and that receiver disappears. See: Steve Smith/Clausen, Calvin Johnson/Orlovsky, Reggie Wayne/Painter, etc.

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[quote name='ClarkCam' timestamp='1333346931' post='1713247']
Yes, Deion Branch was Superbowl MVP for one of them..... And he was on the team for the other one. So I would say he was somewhat important at the time.... He also had Troy Brown who was pretty dynamic in the 2001 season. It would be fair to say he had a bad receiving core in one of his Superbowls not all three. Good try though.

In addition,he also had a defense that everyone seems to forget. I'm not saying its impossible, but the reason everyone knows he had little to no weapons is because it is so rare. All the other offenses of this modern passing era go after WR's. It is becoming a more and more high paid and sought out position. I would be willing to conceed that we could pass on WR this year to see how everything pans out (although I still see Braylon Edwards as a low risk, possible high reward scenario). However, it is ignorant and somewhat foolish to settle for average WR's. I'm pretty sure no GM settles for "okay" wide receivers because they want to let their QB get them out of their problems. The Patriots just signed a plethora of WR's this season, and drafted two tight ends for Brady last season. It's not like they tried to have a bad receiving core for Brady...
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I think you don't understand just how difficult it is to find a truly game-changing receiver. The receiver position is LOADED with talented pass-catchers, but very few of them are game-changers in the sense that they can succeed in any offensive system or with any quarterback. One of the overlooked benefits of LaFell is that he is a fantastic downfield blocker, and he really helped Stewart and Williams get some tough yards a few times this season (Naanee was very good, too. He sprung DeAngelo's longTD run vs. the Saints.)

I'm not saying we just bring on a ton of scrubs and hope Cam makes them all better, but we don't need to mortgage picks or potential to try and grab some big name receivers, because you can often find similar potential talents elsewhere via free agency or the draft. It really comes down to how much a receiver wants to learn the offense and sell out for the team anyways: why do you think Randy Moss ended up getting shipped for peanuts to the Patriots, then he had one of the greatest receiving years of all time, and then he got whiny and fell off the map?

And Deion Branch has never been more than above-average at best player.

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ouch this dude wrote so much and no pie.. sorry bro

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[quote name='ClarkCam' timestamp='1333346931' post='1713247']
Yes, Deion Branch was Superbowl MVP for one of them..... And he was on the team for the other one. So I would say he was somewhat important at the time.... He also had Troy Brown who was pretty dynamic in the 2001 season. It would be fair to say he had a bad receiving core in one of his Superbowls not all three. Good try though.

In addition,he also had a defense that everyone seems to forget. I'm not saying its impossible, but the reason everyone knows he had little to no weapons is because it is so rare. All the other offenses of this modern passing era go after WR's. It is becoming a more and more high paid and sought out position. I would be willing to conceed that we could pass on WR this year to see how everything pans out (although I still see Braylon Edwards as a low risk, possible high reward scenario[u][b]). However, it is ignorant and somewhat foolish to settle for average WR's. I'm pretty sure no GM settles for "okay" wide receivers because they want to let their [/b][/u]QB get them out of their problems. The Patriots just signed a plethora of WR's this season, and drafted two tight ends for Brady last season. It's not like they tried to have a bad receiving core for Brady...
[/quote]


No way in hell are you going to make Deion Branch, Troy Brown and ........ David Givens out to be a great wr group. Without Brady the Pat's are the Browns.


What do you think we were doing under FOX getting Avg. wr.

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Going into last year, I was screaming for a #2 WR. Rivera had said no one had really stepped up and it wasn't a sure thing that Smith would return to form.

Obviously, Smith was a beast and hopefully he can keep it going another 2 or 3 years.

Naanee sucked, and as others pointed out, played because he knew the system. I would be willing to bet that Naanee has a hard time catching on with another team. The guy just doesn't have the talent.

LaFell made some big catches, and I expect him to continue to get better. Gettis is still an unknown, but an unknown with promise.

Bottom line...I think we are okay barring injury. We need to find Smitty's replacement before too long, but this is not an urgent need compared to the cluster fug we had on D last year. Let's focus on that side of the ball this year, and see if better balance doesn't win us more games.

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[quote name='ClarkCam' timestamp='1333345258' post='1713231']
Lafell, he simply did not produce even when he got into the lineup when Naanee went down.[/quote]
Steve Smith yards [u]per target[/u] in '11: 10.8
Brandon LaFell yards [u]per target[/u] in '11: 10.9

You can't explain that...

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If Smitty doesn't get signed long term than the concerns about wide receiver are justified. If he does get signed we have bought ourselves a few years to replace him. Until then both LaFell and gettis could become the number 2. We just don't have another legitimate number 1 besides Smith.

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I think everyone agrees it is a need but considering the health of our defense that should be the highest priority.

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[quote name='fieryprophet' timestamp='1333347156' post='1713249']
But you take an elite QB away from his receiver and that receiver disappears. See: Steve Smith/Clausen, Calvin Johnson/Orlovsky, Reggie Wayne/Painter, etc.
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Those are pretty extreme examples - I don't think anyone would consider Clausen, Orlovsky, or Painter to be even below-average QBs at this point in time. Steve Smith/Matt Moore, Calvin Johnson/Jon Kitna, Randy Moss/Matt Cassel or Kerry Collins, or Andre Johnson/Matt Schaub are probably better examples, and with those QBs the elite receivers still put up pretty good numbers. There are a lot of factors invovled, and to say that receivers are purely dependent on the quality of their QBs is not an entirely accurate statement.

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[quote name='KSpan' timestamp='1333374091' post='1713414']
Those are pretty extreme examples - I don't think anyone would consider Clausen, Orlovsky, or Painter to be even below-average QBs at this point in time. Steve Smith/Matt Moore, Calvin Johnson/Jon Kitna, Randy Moss/Matt Cassel or Kerry Collins, or Andre Johnson/Matt Schaub are probably better examples, and with those QBs the elite receivers still put up pretty good numbers. There are a lot of factors invovled, and to say that receivers are purely dependent on the quality of their QBs is not an entirely accurate statement.
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Yes, but again, with average QBs those "elite" receivers only turned in decent numbers. The production bottleneck still rests with the QB. That's why I would wait until we can pick up a potential #1 in the later rounds than trade away picks for a chance at the same thing with someone like Blackmon or Wright. Cam gives us that flexibility.

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[quote name='mario' timestamp='1333363771' post='1713300']
Steve Smith yards [u]per target[/u] in '11: 10.8
Brandon LaFell yards [u]per target[/u] in '11: 10.9

You can't explain that...
[/quote]

Two things. 1. Smith was target a TON. And only about 60 some percent were actually completed, so of course "per target" its not going to be terribly high, so its not a completely fair comparison. However, I am interested to where you find those statistics? Because those are really interesting.

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[quote name='fieryprophet' timestamp='1333376467' post='1713462']
Yes, but again, with average QBs those "elite" receivers only turned in decent numbers. The production bottleneck still rests with the QB. That's why I would wait until we can pick up a potential #1 in the later rounds than trade away picks for a chance at the same thing with someone like Blackmon or Wright. Cam gives us that flexibility.
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I feel like we were reading each other on extremes on each others posts. I am with you on this one, I just don't think Lafell has shown enough to warrant your guys' unwavering loyalty to him. I still think we should pick up some WR vet, I understand not wanting to go high because of our horrible defense, that was more of a suggestion. If Smith, Gettis, or Lafell get hurt... Armanti is next up and I honestly, as much as I love the guy, we are in trouble if that happens.

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[quote name='ClarkCam' timestamp='1333345258' post='1713231']
I strongly disagree with this statement. Just because a QB is good, does not mean you should not upgrade them. If Gettis and Lafell don't produce as they should next year, yet are still average and not "world beaters" I think you MUST upgrade them. Look at the Patriots. Tom Brady is a HOF quarterback, who granted won a superbowl with not so great receivers (but a kick ass defense). However, they continue to upgrade his weapons and receivers all the time.

Of course the season has not started yet, but I simply don't see Lafell as the answer. Gettis I think has serious potential. He was putting up decent numbers with Clausen and no Steve Smith. Lafell, he simply did not produce even when he got into the lineup when Naanee went down. As I said earlier, yes he can catch and I was more harping on two seasons ago and the preseason... BUT, if you watch the games, he simply does not put up great numbers. [i][b]The last three games he put up 0, 100, and 27 receiving yards.[/b][/i] The 100 yard game was mainly off a 91 yard TD catch that was busted coverage..... I simply don't have faith in his ability to get open.
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I am not saying just because we have a good QB, don't upgrade them. You should always look to upgrade any position you can. But when you have other positions that are in worse shape you don't start upgrading a position that is currently in adequate shape. You don't want to hinder the CB, DL, LB position by drafting a WR in the early rounds. Also, if you look at Brady's and Manning's WRs in the past, they really weren't that great. You'd have a top receiver like Marvin Harrison or a Wes Welker but that was about it with them. LaFell should be fine, he looked just as good as Gettis their rookie seasons. It's just going to be difficult to replace Smitty.

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^^ I'm with you. I mentioned a few receivers I liked and everyone seemed to take that as "screw defense"... I'm not playing madden here. Defense definitely needs another DT and DE..... And possibly even LB because of how thin we are there if Davis goes down again, or Beason, for some reason or other, has a setback. Then we have CB, Munnerlyn just doesn't cut it opposite Gamble. Point being, I realize our needs, but I still think picking up some insurance behind those three is a valid point.

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I mean you did suggest WRs that were going in the first couple of rounds and Braylon Edwards who probably wouldn't add too much to our WR corps as it is now. It'd be best to wait until the 4th, maybe even 5th round to consider a WR. And we all know our money is tight so FA isn't looking likely to add a WR of substance.

Plus, with our offense we get a lot of offense from our TE position and receiving out of our backfield.

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[quote name='ClarkCam' timestamp='1333378177' post='1713506']
Two things. 1. Smith was target a TON. And only about 60 some percent were actually completed, so of course "per target" its not going to be terribly high, so its not a completely fair comparison. However, I am interested to where you find those statistics? Because those are really interesting.
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Who cares if Smitty was targeted much more (obviously, he has to be cause he's the best WR on the team), that stat only shows that LaFell was the most productive receiver on the team considering the chances given to each player. Naanee had a horrid 6.1 yards per target, which only shows who was the better #2 and how much we lost with LaFell sitting behind Naanee for half of the season. We could be talking now about a 800 yards WR#2, which is pretty darn good.

http://hosted.stats.com/fb/findplayer.asp?type=position&position=1 Find a player and scroll down to see the targets (and drops) for this season.

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^^ If that was the statistic you measured receivers by, then Lafell is a better receiver than Steve Smith.

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[quote name='ClarkCam' timestamp='1333401717' post='1714125']
^^ If that was the statistic you measured receivers by, then Lafell is a better receiver than Steve Smith.
[/quote]
Good thing that i'm not then.

Is a pretty good fact to deny your "LaFell was no productive" statement, tho.

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Just because he has that as a higher statistic really doesn't mean anything.... Jeremy Maclin, Stevie Johnson, Santonio Holmes... Not gonna lie its not like I knew this off the top of my head, all had lower Y/receptions than Lafell. Lafell posted 0,20, and 20 yards for three games in a row (one of those games he had 100 due to a single bomb from broken coverage). You are measuring receivers in a very misconstrued way. If you wanted to make the argument that Lafell was a productive receiver, there were/are many better ways to argue it. However, with your measurement, it simply makes no sense the way you are approaching it.

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