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Cam Newton's Sophmore Slump [Article]

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Posted

First off, I was just responding to the reading comprehension question asked. Secondly, go back two his late March articles if you think the guy is a Saints fan or even pro Saints.

well i take it back if he's in fact not a saints fan. it doesn't matter though because his post is not accurate and his reasoning is flawed.

you also aligned yourself with him in your original post so responding to you is fair game:

Article basically makes the same point I did, almost no wins, all wins against inferior opponents, best numbers at begining of season when defenses where weak from no offseason.

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Posted

So, Cam in a slump must still be better than most qb's best.

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Posted

So, Cam in a slump must still be better than most qb's best.

the post isn't arguing that cam will "slump" so much as it's arguing that he's in fact average.

i can buy the sophomore slump angle because it's been documented that rookies sometimes regress in their sophomore seasons. it's not particularly sturdy but at least it's something that's happened enough times to justify it being a thing.

the argument that he's actually just average and defenses caught on to what he was doing and slowed him down as the season went on just makes no sense if you actually watch the games. it implies that he's a one trick pony even though the panthers morphed from something of a more conventional NFL-flavored spread out of the gates to a sort of spread option with a different run/pass balance in the second half of the season.

even if what this guy is saying is true and defenses did in fact catch on and cam wasn't nearly as effective and we ignore the strong counter arguments to this proposition, it still doesn't mean a whole lot as that's something that happens to almost all rookie quarterbacks. what he does with this offseason and how he continues to work on his game will be what matters.

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Posted

who is the saints qb right now again?

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Posted

alejandro hanging around here so much he just might become a panthers fan

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Posted

well i take it back if he's in fact not a saints fan. it doesn't matter though because his post is not accurate and his reasoning is flawed.

you also aligned yourself with him in your original post so responding to you is fair game:

Article basically makes the same point I did, almost no wins, all wins against inferior opponents, best numbers at begining of season when defenses where weak from no offseason.

I wasn't backtracking on what I said, I was just answering the guys question. The point I had made about Cam was that I think he was pretty good to begin with and wasn't as successful as season went on. Further, I keep reading people here posting how he is possibly the best QB ever and everyone from other teams is jealous and just don't see that level of success in his first year to warrant such outrageous claims. In fact, if I had to pick a QB new to league that worries me, I would easily say Stafford. I know he had a few years already, but last year was his first full season and he looks like he is not too far from Brees or Rodgers level. But comparing Stafford to Cam, although a little unfair because of Stafford being around longer, I still easily pick Stafford as having the better future based on the play we've seen so far. That's not to say Cam is not an above average guy, because he is very good, but the step from good to great has to do with consistency and it's still to early to make claims that everyone else is jealous they don't have him or he will be best QB ever.

I guess the simplified point is Cam hasn't done enough to prove he will be a great QB. The arrow is definitely pointing up, but the sample size is too small to make forgone conlclusions like that. A lot of the same claims were made about Freeman after his rookie season, only for his next season be a huge regression.

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Posted

I wasn't backtracking on what I said, I was just answering the guys question. The point I had made about Cam was that I think he was pretty good to begin with and wasn't as successful as season went on. Further, I keep reading people here posting how he is possibly the best QB ever and everyone from other teams is jealous and just don't see that level of success in his first year to warrant such outrageous claims. In fact, if I had to pick a QB new to league that worries me, I would easily say Stafford. I know he had a few years already, but last year was his first full season and he looks like he is not too far from Brees or Rodgers level. But comparing Stafford to Cam, although a little unfair because of Stafford being around longer, I still easily pick Stafford as having the better future based on the play we've seen so far. That's not to say Cam is not an above average guy, because he is very good, but the step from good to great has to do with consistency and it's still to early to make claims that everyone else is jealous they don't have him or he will be best QB ever.

I guess the simplified point is Cam hasn't done enough to prove he will be a great QB. The arrow is definitely pointing up, but the sample size is too small to make forgone conlclusions like that. A lot of the same claims were made about Freeman after his rookie season, only for his next season be a huge regression.

Freeman's big year was his second, not his rookie year (just like The Golden Calf of Bristol kept getting brought up in rookie of the year arguments last year when he wasn't one.)

Nobody's making the claim Cam is the best QB in the NFL right now. You're making up straw men arguments so you can bitch about things only you imagine are being said. It is perfectly fair to say, however, that Cam has already done far more to dispel any doubts about his work ethic/intangibles/ability to run an NFL offense that only fools would doubt him.

All Cam had to do this year to validate his season was be a decent QB, and to show flashes of promise. Expectations were that low due to the media firestorm and pre-draft criticism. Instead, he obliterated every obstacle, turned in the greatest rookie performance a quarterback has ever had, and did so in a completely different manner than he had throughout college and in every way the "experts" said he couldn't. You shouldn't fear that Cam was only an average passer compared to Brees. You should fear that it took him less than one offseason to morph from a raw prospect into an average passer compared to Brees; and the distance between where is now and where Brees is after being in the league for years is smaller than where Cam started.

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Posted

Cam doesn't have average arm strength, he's well above average. He doesn't throw an average deep ball, he's elite in that area. He is the most elusive QB I have ever seen, and an incredible scrambler.

Cam is closer to average as far as his short and mid-range accuracy is concerned.

I don't care about the lockout as far as Cam's play was concerned in the first half of the season. All any fan would need to do is watch Cam complete deep passes to covered revievers in the GB, AZ, or whichever early season game you prefer, and you can tell it wasn't "lockout" magic that put the ball right on the money. The DBs were in position to make a play, but the throws were perfect and couldn't be defended. That's what is pissing fans off, the idea that those throws don't count because the lockout hurt opposing defenses. The lockout hurt Cam as well. The throws count, and so do the shitty passes and INTs he threw in the first half of the season.

The cause of Cam's decline in stats was due to opposing defenses focusing on taking away the deep ball, and giving Cam mid-range targets that he struggled to hit on a consistant basis. The plan worked to a certain extent, and now the ball is in our court as to how to counter the new defensive strategy.

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Posted

Look at his first 5 games versus his last 5. In the first five his passer rating was a combined 84.6. The last 5 games it was 99.2

TD/INT ratio- first five games- 7/6 or 1.16, last five games- 8/3 or 2.66.

These are called quality stats not quantity stats and therefore more meaningful. Amazing what you find when you go beyond the surface and do a little research.....

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Posted

Cam doesn't have average arm strength, he's well above average. He doesn't throw an average deep ball, he's elite in that area. He is the most elusive QB I have ever seen, and an incredible scrambler.

Cam is closer to average as far as his short and mid-range accuracy is concerned.

I don't care about the lockout as far as Cam's play was concerned in the first half of the season. All any fan would need to do is watch Cam complete deep passes to covered revievers in the GB, AZ, or whichever early season game you prefer, and you can tell it wasn't "lockout" magic that put the ball right on the money. The DBs were in position to make a play, but the throws were perfect and couldn't be defended. That's what is pissing fans off, the idea that those throws don't count because the lockout hurt opposing defenses. The lockout hurt Cam as well. The throws count, and so do the shitty passes and INTs he threw in the first half of the season.

The cause of Cam's decline in stats was due to opposing defenses focusing on taking away the deep ball, and giving Cam mid-range targets that he struggled to hit on a consistant basis. The plan worked to a certain extent, and now the ball is in our court as to how to counter the new defensive strategy.

Actually the stats don't support that he dropped off that much in any department. His yards per attempt went down from a ridiculous 8.6 yards in September to a still well above average of 8.0 in December. In September he had 16 passes of over 20 yards and in December had 12 so not a huge drop off. His passer rating went up 85.1 in September to 100.4 in December. His TD/Ints went from 4-4 to 8-2. So I pointed out September versus December and the first 5 games versus the last 5 in another post and the reality is that Newton improved in a number of stats and was still solid in others if they went down. It is actually incumbent on the league to show they have him figured out not the other way around.

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Posted

Actually the stats don't support that he dropped off that much in any department. His yards per attempt went down from a ridiculous 8.6 yards in September to a still well above average of 8.0 in December. In September he had 16 passes of over 20 yards and in December had 12 so not a huge drop off. His passer rating went up 85.1 in September to 100.4 in December. His TD/Ints went from 4-4 to 8-2. So I pointed out September versus December and the first 5 games versus the last 5 in another post and the reality is that Newton improved in a number of stats and was still solid in others if they went down. It is actually incumbent on the league to show they have him figured out not the other way around.

I was working from the assumption that his stats declined in the second half of the season, and my general impression of his play throughout the season. I see you've looked into his stats closely, and it's good news to me to see that there wasn't much of a drop off stats wise.

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Posted

I mean sophomore slumps are very common especially in QBs. I'm not worried about it though, but I won't be surprised to see a bit of a sophomore slump

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