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Never Paid Attention To The Draft. Some Very General Observations About Drafting

Hindsight is 20:20

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#1 top dawg

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Posted 29 April 2012 - 10:46 AM

To be honest, I just never saw the point in getting all caught up in the draft. I mean, I ain't a scout, GM, coach or anything. I am just a fan. I know that I have to deal with the results either way, so I am basically just concerned with the end result. And when I say "end result", I am referring to the result on the field. And, in my mind, sometimes you have to wait even three or four years before developing a rational opinion. Of course there are exceptions when dealing with extremes. People, including myself, tend to make immediate judgments on rookies that appear extremely good or extremely bad. But, hey, 'It is what it is." [lol]

Being a noob at investing myself into this year's draft, I feel that the smartest front offices invest in sure-fire spot on football players in the first round. To pick anything other than a solid football player who can make an immediate impact in the first round is pure lunacy. That's why I really like the Kuechly pick, and, in retrospect, he was really the only pick to be made under the circumstances. The other sure-fire, impactful players were gone, and there were a whole helluva lot more questions regarding the immediate effectiveness of the available defensive linemen at their respective positions than Kuechly at linebacker. Moreover, you are trying to do the same thing when it comes to each successive round, but of course the degree of "sure-firedness" becomes more questionable as the rounds go on. Sinatolu was probably the BPA using the "sure-firedness" parameter. In my opinion, you got to get the first one right, but the Panthers got the first two right, and all the others are gravy.

As you get to the later rounds of the draft, this is where homework and attention to detail really rears its head---ugly or otherwise. It is where fans really don't have a clue unless they are scout/draft nerds who don't have a life. This is where the smaller school gems can be acquired like hopefully a Josh Norman, and more speculative and/or developmental players who can make or break a seasons for years to come, come into play. So, to pick up an explosive player like Joe Adams this year (notwithstanding his health question that by most accounts should not be an issue), and to take a flyer on a player who basically fell due to injury but has obvious talent like Brandon Hogan last year, will hopefully be the types of picks that will help the Panthers hit pay dirt.

So, all-in-all, I am pleased with the way the draft went. The only thing I absolutely hated is giving up next year's third (but I'll just chalk that up to Hurney being Hurney). It's not like I have a say-so in the matter anyway, and realize that I don't have enough knowledge to know whether or not Alexander was worth it. I believe Joe Adams was worth it. I hope that we did very well. Things could have been a whole lot worse. I would have been thoroughly confused had I been a Dolphins, Seahawks or Redkins fan right now.

#2 FirstRoundPick

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Posted 29 April 2012 - 11:41 AM

This should not have fallen off the first page. Great post anyway man.

#3 top dawg

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Posted 29 April 2012 - 11:45 AM

Thanks. I appreciate that.

#4 Ivan The Awesome

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Posted 29 April 2012 - 12:53 PM

Jags fans must have been pissed about the punter pick.

#5 Icege

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Posted 29 April 2012 - 12:56 PM

People don't like reason and rational because it means there is less opportunity for pie/rep without being an ass

oh look what i went and did :(

#6 jamos14

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Posted 29 April 2012 - 01:35 PM

Hell of a post.

#7 Argus Plexus

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Posted 29 April 2012 - 02:05 PM

If we didn't give up a pick from next year, it wouldn't be a Hurney draft. At least he's gone from giving away firsts for second round busts to giving away 3rds for 4th round sleepers.

#8 Zod

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Posted 29 April 2012 - 02:24 PM

excellent post

#9 Mother Grabber

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Posted 29 April 2012 - 02:33 PM

Why does everyone complain about trading future picks. It's not like we just gave away the pick and got nothing in return. We got a 4th round pick, who right now looks like a great value. So next year, we will have a DE with 1 year of experience for our 3rd round pick.

#10 top dawg

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Posted 29 April 2012 - 02:53 PM

Why does everyone complain about trading future picks. It's not like we just gave away the pick and got nothing in return. We got a 4th round pick, who right now looks like a great value. So next year, we will have a DE with 1 year of experience for our 3rd round pick.


For me personally, it seems as it turns out bad more times than not. Yeah Stewart was an excellent pick on the face of things, but then when you look at the fact that we will probably lose him, then we may as well just went with D-Will. In retrospect, in my opinion, Goodson and Sutton would have sufficed. Now looking at Edwards and Everette Brown, trading up was not to kind to the organization. Yeah, just making decisions on your normal picks during the draft are hit-and-miss, but to trade away future potential value during such a fluid time as the draft (in light of our history) stings just a little bit.

I suppose that it's all a part of the process, and hindsight really is 20:20. On an off note, I feel more comfortable trading a pick for a known commodity with solid potential like Olsen. That way you pretty much know what you're getting, plus you have much more time and soberness to really consider what you're doing.

#11 KBRed

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Posted 29 April 2012 - 02:55 PM

Plus, I'm assuming we don't re-sign Stew and get a 3rd round compensatory pick?

#12 Panthro

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Posted 29 April 2012 - 02:56 PM

Giving up a 3rd is much more palatable than giving up a 1st or 2nd. Also if there's a guy in the 3rd round next year that Hurney likes he will go and get him.

#13 top dawg

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Posted 29 April 2012 - 03:07 PM

Plus, I'm assuming we don't re-sign Stew and get a 3rd round compensatory pick?


Yeah, this year's pick was expendable at the ultimate expense of J-Stew. [I hope not]

#14 Cold Cat

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Posted 29 April 2012 - 04:38 PM

great post.

#15 DawgzLife

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Posted 29 April 2012 - 06:23 PM

To be honest, I just never saw the point in getting all caught up in the draft. I mean, I ain't a scout, GM, coach or anything. I am just a fan. I know that I have to deal with the results either way, so I am basically just concerned with the end result. And when I say "end result", I am referring to the result on the field. And, in my mind, sometimes you have to wait even three or four years before developing a rational opinion. Of course there are exceptions when dealing with extremes. People, including myself, tend to make immediate judgments on rookies that appear extremely good or extremely bad. But, hey, 'It is what it is." [lol]


Okay, I'm just going to go through these step by step; enjoyable read! For someone who doesn't get all caught up you sure posted a long post about it.

So, what is the point getting caught up in the draft? By that line of reasoning, why do you watch the games? You are not a player, coach or owner. Some of us enjoy the draft & acquisition process almost as much as the games themselves. We too care about the end result, maybe even more (tongue in cheek) than those like you who don't follow the draft as closely, that is IF we equate time spent researching our opinions to investment in the team & the end result.

Everyone tends to make immediate judgements, owners, GMs, coaches, fans, little girls, dogs, etc, etc. It's okay, but does not mean a person will be right. If you do not do the research then it is dumb luck either way. If you spend time learning how to assess players/positions, then it becomes a little science added into human emotion. The draft process is fun. It doesn't matter what Hurney ends up doing, the process helps us to learn football at a deeper level; even if that is our goal or not.

Being a noob at investing myself into this year's draft, I feel that the smartest front offices invest in sure-fire spot on football players in the first round. To pick anything other than a solid football player who can make an immediate impact in the first round is pure lunacy. That's why I really like the Kuechly pick, and, in retrospect, he was really the only pick to be made under the circumstances. The other sure-fire, impactful players were gone, and there were a whole helluva lot more questions regarding the immediate effectiveness of the available defensive linemen at their respective positions than Kuechly at linebacker. Moreover, you are trying to do the same thing when it comes to each successive round, but of course the degree of "sure-firedness" becomes more questionable as the rounds go on. Sinatolu was probably the BPA using the "sure-firedness" parameter. In my opinion, you got to get the first one right, but the Panthers got the first two right, and all the others are gravy.


Your points are all spot-on in my opinion; this is the way the good front offices approach things. How did you come to those conclusions without spending at least a little time to learn? (that comment refers to your next paragraph)

The only caveat is that in later rounds some teams focus on how players can fill roles vs. being 'complete' players, it's a subtle but important difference. Where I will disagree is "after round 2 it's all gravy" (paraphrase). The later rounds are where the best teams fill important roles & get solid players; not 100% of the time, but more than not. This is where the time & research really payoff.

As you get to the later rounds of the draft, this is where homework and attention to detail really rears its head---ugly or otherwise. It is where fans really don't have a clue unless they are scout/draft nerds who don't have a life. This is where the smaller school gems can be acquired like hopefully a Josh Norman, and more speculative and/or developmental players who can make or break a seasons for years to come, come into play. So, to pick up an explosive player like Joe Adams this year (notwithstanding his health question that by most accounts should not be an issue), and to take a flyer on a player who basically fell due to injury but has obvious talent like Brandon Hogan last year, will hopefully be the types of picks that will help the Panthers hit pay dirt.


We both agreed on later rounds requiring attention to detail, but that has to happen in the early rounds also, no difference throughout the entire draft for the level of research, etc. Early picks are sexy, later picks need to be substanative.

Speak for yourself, but regarding fans not having a clue, being nerds or not having a life: Thankfully I don't fit into any of the 3 categories you named. I would challenge by saying some teams/scouts don't have a clue either...there are a plethora of examples to support that contention.

Additionally, just b/c someone enjoys the draft process or have developed an understanding doesn't mean they don't have a life. I am on multiple profesional & community boards; I'm a medical praticioner; I manage a clinic with 30 employees; ; I spend many hours a week on continuing education & professional research; I participate in community fundraising by myself & through club membership activities; I'm active in my church; I have a family of 5; I am actively participate in community sports & the list goes on. This is not about me, but I use myself to challenge your errant judgement, we all come together here on the huddle b/c we have something in common...the Panthers...when you generalize about a group of people you can guarantee that you will end up being the 1 who is wrong.

I agree again on later rounds being where gems can be found, but not only on small school players or medical risks. We took a small school player in the 2nd, & we took big school players in later rounds as well, that could be hidden gems.

So, all-in-all, I am pleased with the way the draft went. The only thing I absolutely hated is giving up next year's third (but I'll just chalk that up to Hurney being Hurney). It's not like I have a say-so in the matter anyway, and realize that I don't have enough knowledge to know whether or not Alexander was worth it. I believe Joe Adams was worth it. I hope that we did very well. Things could have been a whole lot worse. I would have been thoroughly confused had I been a Dolphins, Seahawks or Redkins fan right now.


I agree with being pleased with the way the draft went all in all & about giving up the 3rd (for Alexander); the way to 'consistently build is not by giving away picks. Us nerds & losers who watched the draft ('sarcasim') were watching top guys being taken in the 3rd this year & co-miserating about not having a pick there (guess that will happen again next year).

When it comes to "say-so"...why even watch the games? You don't have any involvement in the outcome, but you still cheer right? Those of us who do study players, have our opinions, based on objective information...we may not have a clue, but we have a basis for the opinion. Why do you believe Adams was worth it? Because you believe draftniks? Hurney & the drafniks have been known to be wrong too. Many of us form our own opinions during the college football season & from watching all avaiable videos (not just b/c Mel Kiper, Todd McShay or Mayock made us believe them). There are key traits & a real science to how to assess a player. Time-consuming, yes, but for me I love analysis & it is a break from my normal life & responsibilities...it actually allows me to re-charge (just like working out).

Okay. I hope none of what I said sounded harsh, b/c that is not how I intended it, but why the need to bash those who spend more time on football than yourself? Is it because what you spend time on is more important? Who should be judging that? You make those statements demeaning those who spend time on the draft, then go on to assess & opine about the draft (hypocricy do I hear you calling?). I kid of course, but for someone claiming to be cerebral in your sig line, some of your statements seem ignorant & ill prepared. How can a person be cerebral about anything if they do not first take the time to learn how to do something? For me to believe you are cerebral I would have to believe you think & research before you comment. I do not question your IQ, I am just using comparative analysis.

I absolutely love the draft & all it's bells & whistles. I love football in every form (like most of us on here) &, in the off-season, this is what football is. I think it helps us to become better fans. We are not unaware of the fact that we participate vicariously...but it's an outlet & something we are passionate about. I hope, if you want, you learn to enjoy 'the process' of the draft to some degree, it is really fun. :)


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