Stirs Mock Election 1.0
Posted 03 September 2012 - 11:18 PM
Posted 04 September 2012 - 04:50 PM
Gallup: No convention bounce for Romney
Split verdict on bounce
Oddly enough, however, you can’t really find a poll that seems to reflect a 2- or 3-point bounce exactly. Instead, there have been some polls where Mr. Romney’s bounce has been a bit larger than that, and others where there is little sign of a bounce at all.
On the favorable side for Mr. Romney is the Rasmussen Reports tracking poll, which now shows him four percentage points ahead of President Obama. That represents a 6-point swing toward Mr. Romney compared with the poll Rasmussen Reports released immediately before the convention, although the bounce is smaller (about three percentage points) measured relative to the long-term average of their surveys.
But there are also two clearly unfavorable data points for Mr. Romney. One is the Gallup national tracking poll, which still shows Mr. Obama with a 1-point lead — actually a bit worse for Mr. Romney than Gallup’s last survey before the convention, when he had led by one point.
Gallup’s survey still contains a fair number of interviews that were conducted before the convention began, and there is a bit of a silver lining for Mr. Romney in that Mr. Obama’s approval rating ticked down in the poll on Sunday. Since Gallup’s approval ratings are based on a 3-day polling average while their horse race numbers are based on a 7-day average, that could indicate Mr. Romney may still gain a bit of ground in the poll once it fully rolls over to post-convention interviews.
Gallup's poll will not be fully post convention until thursday of this week.
As I said, the electorate is so polarized that its difficult to imagine the conventions making much of a difference. My guess is that in a couple of weeks, the numbers will be roughly at the same spot they were before the conventions started.
Obama will likely be re-elected, but he is still vulnerable, and nothing has changed in that regard. His approval rating is very low for a president in the running for a second term. Should something bad happen economy wise (like if the price of gas keeps going up) then he might lose. As it stands now, the election is going to come down to a handful of states that will likely be close.
Posted 04 September 2012 - 05:00 PM
Bottom line, Romney is in big trouble after this week's POTUS speech in front of 80000 at BOA in primetime
I bet Obama won't mention hope and change in that speech.
Posted 16 October 2012 - 07:02 AM
Romney moving ahead in all kinds of demographics, ahead by 4 pts in swing states and having MSNBC folks breathing fire at their guy Obama.
Looking tonight for the "great comeback" which you will hear about in the morning no matter what happens tonight. Straw man will rule.
Posted 16 October 2012 - 07:41 AM
Who wants to place a bet an "undecided" hops up and announced they are one of the 47% and whether Romney will work for them.
Posted 16 October 2012 - 02:01 PM
Posted 16 October 2012 - 04:48 PM
Ohio is still going to be the key. And I don't think Romney will win in Ohio because its a state heavily dependent on the Auto industry.
Your point being?
Posted 16 October 2012 - 06:00 PM
That Romney is probably not going to win because he probably will not win Ohio.
Your point being?
Posted 16 October 2012 - 06:23 PM