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Stirs Mock Election 1.0


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#37 Gazi

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Posted 03 September 2012 - 03:49 PM

And the Repub convention can only help further.


har har

#38 Gazi

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Posted 03 September 2012 - 03:51 PM

"Dude, where is my bounce"

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#39 SZ James (banned)

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Posted 03 September 2012 - 03:58 PM

:lol:

#40 Catalyst

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Posted 03 September 2012 - 04:28 PM

National polls mean nothing, TBH, in a race like this. The electoral college favors Obama pretty solidly.

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#41 Davidson Deac II

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Posted 03 September 2012 - 06:43 PM

National polls mean nothing, TBH, in a race like this. The electoral college favors Obama pretty solidly.



Obama will likely win, but I don't know if I would say it favors him solidly. And Virginia, Florida, Ohio, Iowa, Nevada, Michigan, and Wisconsin are all within the polling margin of error/to close to call right now.

Fwiw, even if the republicans lose the white house, they could end up with control of both the Senate and the House. That could mean that Obama would in effect be a lameduck president from day one in his second term.

#42 mav1234

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Posted 03 September 2012 - 07:58 PM

"Dude, where is my bounce"

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empty chair...

empty bounce.

#43 Davidson Deac II

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Posted 03 September 2012 - 08:58 PM

Fwiw, Romney did get a small bounce if you take an average of the polls. And some of them (gallup for example) don't have full post convention numbers yet because of the way they poll. Gallup uses a rolling 7 day average. It appears he got a 2-3 point bounce, and with the electorate so polarized, I doubt either candidate can expect much more than that.

Of course, the important thing is if he gets a bounce in the battleground states. Fwiw, the Charlotte observer poll had Romney up by 4 points in NC. Thats a couple of points more than he had a few weeks ago, so if the poll is accurate, its good news for him.

#44 Gazi

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Posted 03 September 2012 - 09:38 PM

Fwiw, Romney did get a small bounce if you take an average of the polls. And some of them (gallup for example) don't have full post convention numbers yet because of the way they poll. Gallup uses a rolling 7 day average. It appears he got a 2-3 point bounce, and with the electorate so polarized, I doubt either candidate can expect much more than that.

Of course, the important thing is if he gets a bounce in the battleground states. Fwiw, the Charlotte observer poll had Romney up by 4 points in NC. Thats a couple of points more than he had a few weeks ago, so if the poll is accurate, its good news for him.



Gallup: No convention bounce for Romney
http://content.usato.../1#.UEVpjKSe6B0

#45 Gazi

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Posted 03 September 2012 - 09:42 PM

Bottom line, Romney is in big trouble after this week's POTUS speech in front of 80000 at BOA in primetime

#46 cookinwithgas

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Posted 03 September 2012 - 11:18 PM

well at least until Obama gives us the specifics of his second term where he forces us all to become Islamofascists...or islamosocialists, after almost 4 years I still can't figure that one out.

#47 Davidson Deac II

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Posted 04 September 2012 - 04:50 PM

Gallup: No convention bounce for Romney
http://content.usato.../1#.UEVpjKSe6B0



Split verdict on bounce

Oddly enough, however, you can’t really find a poll that seems to reflect a 2- or 3-point bounce exactly. Instead, there have been some polls where Mr. Romney’s bounce has been a bit larger than that, and others where there is little sign of a bounce at all.
On the favorable side for Mr. Romney is the Rasmussen Reports tracking poll, which now shows him four percentage points ahead of President Obama. That represents a 6-point swing toward Mr. Romney compared with the poll Rasmussen Reports released immediately before the convention, although the bounce is smaller (about three percentage points) measured relative to the long-term average of their surveys.



But there are also two clearly unfavorable data points for Mr. Romney. One is the Gallup national tracking poll, which still shows Mr. Obama with a 1-point lead — actually a bit worse for Mr. Romney than Gallup’s last survey before the convention, when he had led by one point.

Gallup’s survey still contains a fair number of interviews that were conducted before the convention began, and there is a bit of a silver lining for Mr. Romney in that Mr. Obama’s approval rating ticked down in the poll on Sunday. Since Gallup’s approval ratings are based on a 3-day polling average while their horse race numbers are based on a 7-day average, that could indicate Mr. Romney may still gain a bit of ground in the poll once it fully rolls over to post-convention interviews.


Gallup's poll will not be fully post convention until thursday of this week.

As I said, the electorate is so polarized that its difficult to imagine the conventions making much of a difference. My guess is that in a couple of weeks, the numbers will be roughly at the same spot they were before the conventions started.

Obama will likely be re-elected, but he is still vulnerable, and nothing has changed in that regard. His approval rating is very low for a president in the running for a second term. Should something bad happen economy wise (like if the price of gas keeps going up) then he might lose. As it stands now, the election is going to come down to a handful of states that will likely be close.

#48 Davidson Deac II

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Posted 04 September 2012 - 05:00 PM

Bottom line, Romney is in big trouble after this week's POTUS speech in front of 80000 at BOA in primetime


I bet Obama won't mention hope and change in that speech.