52 replies to this topic

[Doc Holiday]

This is simple really, I think we can all agree that the democrats and republicans will both vote for their flag bearer, the real question in the election is were will the independents vote?

They will either vote for who every they think will give them the most(hope and change from Obama last time) or who has givin them the most(bill Clinton, peace and good economy).

Obama will lose because his only real accomplishment was being the president that took down Osama. And that many will argue as happenstance. he has presided over the worse economy since the great depression and has done either little to fix it or done more damage then good.

Bill Clinton had a reasonable peaceful period and a booming economy.

Bush had his war on terror and what was at the time a booming economy, although the economy fallacy that no one knew about at the time.

Before you start arguing this or that the accomplishment has to be something that both sides can agree was good and Obama only has 1.

Obama just hasn't done enough and there are enough people hurting right now with the economy that they are going to vote with their wallet. And try something else. I'm not here to argue this, just to state the fact.

[Gazi]

Opinions are not facts.

[stirs]

Opinions are not facts.

Says the one who predicted Obama landslide

[Gazi]

Says the one who predicted Obama landslide

My opinion. Yes. What's your point there?

[Davidson Deac II]

3 in 5 chance that he wins re-election.

Romney will pick up a few states though. Indiana and North Carolina will definitely go in the R column this time, maybe a few others. It will be closer than 2008 but in the end he pulls it out, just like Bush did in 2004.

[I Registered To Post This]

i'm still chalking this up to the enthusiasm bump from the VP selection.

since we're not even past the conventions yet this is akin to trying to call the playoffs in august.

[Davidson Deac II]

Chalking what up? The polls have barely moved over the last couple of months.

[rodeo]

Chalking what up? The polls have barely moved over the last couple of months.

There was a slight dip in his chances last week-ish. I think he got down to like a 66% chance. Then he was at 66.7% yesterday and as I check now he's at 68.6%. He started August at 68.7% It hasn't changed much since Romney was named. Probably won't.

[Davidson Deac II]

Fwiw, the electorate is so polarized that there really aren't many undecided voters to sway one way or the other. Its been that way since 2000. There are huge amounts of campaign dollars buying ads going after a very small pool of undecided voters.

I was looking at the some election history the other day. In 1976, Gerald Ford came from 30 plus points down in the polls to nearly win the election. In the 1980 election, there was a 12 point swing in favor of Reagan after the debates. In 1992, if memory serves, there were several swings primarily related to Ross Perot. But those kind of things haven't happened much since. Some tinderbox posters have called Obama's victory in 2008 a landslide, but thats only true if you compare it to 2000 and 2004. It doesn't make the top 15 in biggest US election wins, not even close really. And fwiw, there isn't going to be much of a swing this year either, not more than 2-3 points at most, unless one of the candidates does something really stupid. And it would have to be really really stupid, like getting caught robbing a 7-11 or something.

Romney might have a shot if gas prices keep rising and the economy keeps muddling along, or even goes into recession, but I think Rodeo's odds are probably correct.

[I Registered To Post This]

Chalking what up? The polls have barely moved over the last couple of months.

not if you talk to some people here which is what i was getting at. i wasn't addressing posters like you.

also rasmussen now has obama up in missouri perhaps in part due to the akin thing:
http://www.rasmussen...souri_president

[g5jamz]

Can't wait for the DNC abortionpalooza. I hear instead of confetti at the end, they're going to drop orthonovum pills.

[GAme]

I wish the parasites that sit around and live off of others couldn't vote. Romney landslide

[mmmbeans]

ironically, you'd be depriving predominantly poor, southern, republicans of the right to vote.


but don't let facts stop you!

[Panthro]

Can't wait for the DNC abortionpalooza. I hear instead of confetti at the end, they're going to drop orthonovum pills.

You didn't write that...

I can see the Democrat convention finale now. Obama appears on stage with the Code Pink ladies dressed up in their pink vagina costumes. Instead of balloons – condoms fall from the ceiling.
TarheelBen on August 23, 2012 at 1:34 PM

[g5jamz]

Mine was completely original.

Pretty easy conclusion to make considering what democrats want to focus on.