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panther4life

So you want a new GM huh?..Check this out and maybe you'll reconsider.

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And this makes us different from Hurney in what way?

He's well paid to do this very thing.

Let me put it to you this way: I am a computer programmer, and it blows my mind how little people understand my craft and what you can or cannot do technologically. Clients all the time imagine that an entire refactoring of their codebase is a "few weeks" worth of work since, in their mind, it's just a bunch of copying and pasting. In reality, a tiny change in one part of the codebase could have unforeseen ramifications throughout the entire program.

When NASA designs their software for the space program, they have to certify that their code is 99.9999% bug-free, when the average rate of programmer error is one bug per 300 lines of code, and the average commercial program contains over 500,000 lines of code. That's over 1600 errors, yet the average person whose total extent of technical know-how involves pressing the on-switch assumes that their computer is supposed to be error-proof and read their mind and bitch non-stop otherwise.

In the same vein, a top of the line general manager has a bust rate of around 50%, meaning that a pick they make is likely to be out of the league entirely within three years over half the time.

Absolutely elite GMs only raise this percentage by a few points at most, meaning the fanbase can make wild assumptions based on 20/20 hindsight on how their GM is totally retarded when they understand nothing of the process and the inherent randomness involved in it.

This isn't Madden.

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Baltimore gm Newsome(58% win percentage)

Dallas gm/owner Jones (53.8 win percentage)

New England, Bill Belicheck (72% win percentage)

New Orleans Mickey Loomis (56% win percentage)

Pittsburgh- Kevin Colbert (66% win percentage)

Atlanta gm Dimitroff (67% win percentage)

Chicago Jerry Angelo(53.9% win percentage)

Denver Ted Sundquist (56% win percentage)

Green Bay GM Ted Thompson (59.8 win percentage)

Mike Sherman (68% win percentage)

Indianapolis Bill Polian (63% win percentage).

Jacksonville's James Lanell "Shack" Harris (52.6% win percentage)

Kansas Peterson (55% win percentage)

Miami Rick Spielman (56% win percentage)

New York Giants GM Jerry Reese (61% win percentage)

Ernie Acorsi (50.6% win percentage)

New york Jets GM Mike Tannenbaum (51% win percentage)

Philadellpia GM Howie Rosemann (62.5% win percentage)

San Diego GM A.J Smith (61% win percentage)

Seattle Gm Tim Ruskell (53% win percentage)

St.Louis Jim Zygmunt (53% win percentage)

Tampa's GM Bruce Allen (51.2% win percentage)

Tennesee's Mike Reinfedlt (56% win percentage)

Floyd Reese (50.9% win percentage)

That's 24 guys you listed with better records than Hurney. And that's not even counting guys who just recently took over as GM, like Reggie McKenzie who was director of player personnel for the Packers and won two Super Bowls with them before taking the head job for the Raiders this year.

And then there's this...

So AZ and Cincy are the only teams in the NFL who have kept someone around longer with a worse win %?

Cinci's GM is also the owner so he's not going to fire himself and Arizona is just retarded. In general teams don't let guys hang around as long as Hurney if they can't put together winning teams, especially when their results have been declining (try bringing up the winning % for the last 5 years).

Your post actually shows definitively that we SHOULD get a new GM, not the opposite.

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Hurney is great at managing the numbers. He always leaves us a few dollars to play with when the season starts. I've never had a problem with him with the salary cap.

The problem I have with him is his talent evaluation skills. Especially at WR. How many years have we be looking for a #2 receiver to go with Smith? Granted, he did draft Smith (pure luck with that pick). But Moose was not a Hurny pick. And we are still looking for a solid #2 WR.

He's done well with his first round picks (hell, I could do that well and I only watch a hand full of college games every year). But after the first round, his picks are usually average at best, usually not. Year in and year out, I see outher GMs like the Patriots pick guys in round 3 and beyond who turn into dynamic NFL starters. Hurney has never done it.

With his cap skills, I put him slightly above average.

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^^^ Hurney didn't draft Smitty. Last draft from Seifert --> 1st) Dan Morgan 2nd) Kris Jenkins 3rd) Steve Smith

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Hurney is great at managing the numbers.  He always leaves us a few dollars to play with when the season starts.  I've never had a problem with him with the salary cap.

The problem I have with him is his talent evaluation skills.  Especially at WR.  How many years have we be looking for a #2 receiver to go with Smith?  Granted, he did draft Smith (pure luck with that pick).  But Moose was not a Hurny pick.  And we are still looking for a solid #2 WR.

He's done well with his first round picks (hell, I could do that well and I only watch a hand full of college games every year).  But after the first round, his picks are usually average at best, usually not.  Year in and year out, I see outher GMs like the Patriots pick guys in round 3 and beyond who turn into dynamic NFL starters.  Hurney has never done it.

With his cap skills, I put him slightly above average.

I see outher GMs like the Patriots pick guys in round 3 and beyond
Bullshit. The Patriots have had one good player in the third or beyond in the last five years, and that was Aaron Hernandez in the fourth of 2012. You imagine they have drafted well because you always see them at the top of a terrible division every year, but Belichick has had a notoriously poor series of drafts in recent years and his horrendous defense demonstrates that to a tee.

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On the flipside their have been 4 hired Dimitroff,Reese,A.J Smith(hired in 03) and Ted Thompson out 63 who would have been a proven upgrade over Hurney.Unless you want Angelo and I'd pass.

Thats a 0.6% chance that we will find someone better.Good luck with that.

I tell you what, even Marty Hurney's momma would tell you there are better odds than that....

Flawed math. You calculated there is less than 1% chance of finding better.

Hurney is a decent GM....that is what his resume shows. What we don't know is how much JR has in all of this....

But the trouble some flaw at this point is unlike with Fox....Hurney doesn't seem to be building a roster that is ideal for what his current coaches are wanting to do. Maybe Hurney isn't so much a coaches GM....maybe he and Fox both believed in the same things

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That's 24 guys you listed with better records than Hurney. And that's not even counting guys who just recently took over as GM, like Reggie McKenzie who was director of player personnel for the Packers and won two Super Bowls with them before taking the head job for the Raiders this year.

And then there's this...

Cinci's GM is also the owner so he's not going to fire himself and Arizona is just retarded. In general teams don't let guys hang around as long as Hurney if they can't put together winning teams, especially when their results have been declining (try bringing up the winning % for the last 5 years).

Your post actually shows definitively that we SHOULD get a new GM, not the opposite.

Spielman and Allen are still in the nfl. their current win percentages are terrible with their new teams.11 of the ones you mentioned I already stated were better than Hurney based of record.

That leaves 9 that you need to look at in the proper context. Jones in Dallas and Peterson in Kansas were their for 20+ years and had rode some nice waves but recent history is not kind to them

Now we are down to 7 and in the proper context(length of employment, divison,etc.) they are not any better than Hurney or even still in the NFL

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I tell you what, even Marty Hurney's momma would tell you there are better odds than that....

Flawed math. You calculated there is less than 1% chance of finding better.

Hurney is a decent GM....that is what his resume shows. What we don't know is how much JR has in all of this....

But the trouble some flaw at this point is unlike with Fox....Hurney doesn't seem to be building a roster that is ideal for what his current coaches are wanting to do. Maybe Hurney isn't so much a coaches GM....maybe he and Fox both believed in the same things

He had a top 5 offense last year. They improved the entire offense from last year. We had 1 bad game this year and all of a sudden his players dont fit?

The Defense had a ways to and has shown marked improvement with players returning from injury and new additions. 6 new starters in all and everyone appears to be an upgrade as well.

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I tell you what, even Marty Hurney's momma would tell you there are better odds than that....

Flawed math. You calculated there is less than 1% chance of finding better.

Hurney is a decent GM....that is what his resume shows. What we don't know is how much JR has in all of this....

But the trouble some flaw at this point is unlike with Fox....Hurney doesn't seem to be building a roster that is ideal for what his current coaches are wanting to do. Maybe Hurney isn't so much a coaches GM....maybe he and Fox both believed in the same things

Since he has been here which of the 63 different gm's hired would you prefer? I named 4. Even if you somehow find a way to justify 10 more, thats still 22%. Elite GM's don't grow on trees. Hurney's not elite but he's above average and if he builds something here with Rivera his status can only go up from here.

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While it sucks that we have 2 of the very best in our division, you can't use that as justification to hire a new one.That strategy has not worked for the Bucs so far. Also the Falcons had to go through some hardships themselves before they found Dimitroff.

Look at it this way out 63 different GM's in the last 10 years,Hurney has proven to be the 12th best at worst. This puts him inside of the top 20%.

In addition an argument can be made that Hurney has had the least talented coach of every GM ranked above him. While he is responsible for hiring the head coach, I don't think Fox can use lack of talent as his reason for his demise here. 2010 was a lame duck year(Jerrys decision, so if you credit Fox that year back then you must for Hurney as well).

Right now he gets a do over with Rivera. If this combo sucks then we have nothing to lose by parting ways with Hurney. If this combo comes out does well then we have quite a lot to lose. Lets give this combo 2 full seasons and then see where were at.

I just think if we replace Hurney things will get worse before they get better. I think this current roster is on the brink of something and no point in starting over with an unproven GM at this point.

even if he is 12th best, you are still outside the playoffs looking in. i just dont understand how anybody can defend some of his decisions that he has made for the last 5 years. if him and Rivera dont get it done, than im sure a clean house of FO and coaching staff will happen and should. how many GMs have hired 3 or coaches for the same team?

i dont think getting rid of Hurney will make us worse, i mean poo we have been rebuilding since 2009-2010. maybe a new GM will divide some of the areas that are rich in talent/ depth to bring in more talent at the positions that are not. i have been riding with Hurney but i no longer can after this last offseason.

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even if he is 12th best, you are still outside the playoffs looking in. i just dont understand how anybody can defend some of his decisions that he has made for the last 5 years. if him and Rivera dont get it done, than im sure a clean house of FO and coaching staff will happen and should. how many GMs have hired 3 or coaches for the same team?

i dont think getting rid of Hurney will make us worse, i mean poo we have been rebuilding since 2009-2010. maybe a new GM will divide some of the areas that are rich in talent/ depth to bring in more talent at the positions that are not. i have been riding with Hurney but i no longer can after this last offseason.

In My op, I stated if Hurney does not make it with Rivera then its time to move on.

If you pay attention to this team, Hurney has fielded some damn good rosters. We made nfc championship twice, superbowl once. Things went downhill after our 08 playoff meltdown and we should have made a head coach change then. Unfortunately Richardson wanted to prep for them an entire season. that 2-14 record was the worst we have seen under hurney. If you throw it out then his win percentahe jumps up 6%. Don't forget all the years where we had unfortunate injury bugs that jades our record.

Either way he's the GM for now and I think we have very good team right now. If it turns out I am wrong and we lay an egg then I will jump on the hurney hate bandwagon.

How good do you think we are right now on paper??

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Spielman and Allen are still in the nfl. their current win percentages are terrible with their new teams

Since going to the Vikings in '06

Spielman season record: 46-51 (47% winning percentage), 2 playoff appearances, 1 playoff win

Hurney during that same time period

season record 43-54 (44% winning percentage), 1 playoff appearance, zero playoff wins

Yup, Spielman has been terrible with his new team.... yet still better than Hurney.

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