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Grantland: Punting on 4th-and-1 candidate for worst coaching move of the year


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#1 Dorian Gray

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Posted 01 October 2012 - 09:22 AM

Did Rivera really doubt his team's ability to convert after they "failed" to convert on third down? That seems impossibly short-sighted, especially considering Newton actually made it past the sticks before having the ball knocked out of his hands. Since Newton arrived in town, the Panthers have faced third- or fourth-and-1 on 24 occasions. They've converted on 21 of those 24 opportunities.


Given his team's particular mix of strengths and weaknesses, and the extremely high stakes of the situation, Rivera's decision to punt is a strong candidate for worst coaching decision of the year. ESPN Stats and Info's win expectancy model estimates that it dropped Carolina's chances of winning from 83.5 percent to 57.4 percent without adjusting for the specific skills of the two teams; chances are that Rivera dropped his team's "true" chances of winning by 35-40 percent by punting.

http://www.grantland...est-week-4-news

That 21-of-24 stat makes the call look even worse. At least the lunacy of it all is getting national attention.

#2 Kurb

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Posted 01 October 2012 - 09:24 AM

Tony Dungy's Opinon >>>>

#3 g5jamz

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Posted 01 October 2012 - 09:28 AM

The punt put the ball on the 1...tell me how that's a bad move with them with no timeouts. What happens when you don't get the 1 yard on 4th down. Yeah...make it a lot easier for them.

No...dumb move was calling inside run plays when they got jack crap during the game and someone felt we could to it when it mattered and 8+ in the box.

#4 jtm

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Posted 01 October 2012 - 09:30 AM

Hindsight is always 20/20.

#5 Cary Kollins

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Posted 01 October 2012 - 09:34 AM

I don't think punting was that terrible. It was a very long 1 yard and we had been getting pressure on Ryan all game. I think the worst thing Rivera did all day was not try to score with 3 timeouts before the 1st half ended.

If we PREVENT the falcons from converting on a hail mary, we win the game and the punting call looks great.

#6 Dorian Gray

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Posted 01 October 2012 - 09:35 AM

*
A WHOLE PIE!

Hindsight is always 20/20.

A lot of people thought it was a bad move as it was happening. You need 1 yard to put the game away. You have Newton, Stewart, and Williams. You have almost 200 yards rushing already. You just got the first down the play before but fumbled it back. You've got Tolbert blocking. You're in Atlanta territory. Your defense has already given up huge plays in the passing game. Your secondary is hot garbage. You have the worst safety in the league. They have Matt Ryan and 2 big play receivers. They had taken a screen pass past our entire defense already.

You show guts and try to win it there. You don't put the game on your woeful secondary, no matter how unlikely it seems that they'll get beat (although it wasn't very unlikely considering how poorly they'd played all game).

#7 Tank

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Posted 01 October 2012 - 09:39 AM

I wouldn't consider that punt in that situation to even be a candidate for worst decision of the year.

#8 Fox007

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Posted 01 October 2012 - 09:40 AM

Just showing what the smart people already knew.

#9 Banjo

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Posted 01 October 2012 - 09:40 AM

No one can stop Cam when he wants a yard. When it comes to relying on Cam or this defense to win a game, give me Cam 100% of the time

#10 Sloth

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Posted 01 October 2012 - 09:42 AM

A lot of people thought it was a bad move as it was happening. You need 1 yard to put the game away. You have Newton, Stewart, and Williams. You have almost 200 yards rushing already. You just got the first down the play before but fumbled it back. You've got Tolbert blocking. You're in Atlanta territory. Your defense has already given up huge plays in the passing game. Your secondary is hot garbage. You have the worst safety in the league. They have Matt Ryan and 2 big play receivers. They had taken a screen pass past our entire defense already.

You show guts and try to win it there. You don't put the game on your woeful secondary, no matter how unlikely it seems that they'll get beat (although it wasn't very unlikely considering how poorly they'd played all game).


Thank you.

We couldn't stop Turner (something stupid like 7 or 8 YPC), couldn't stop White, and Jones was one mental mistake from putting the game away a drive earlier. Ryan was right around 300 yards. Our tackling looked like a blooper reel for the majority of the night. Our FS had already been torched deep a couple of times along with our starting rookie 5th round CB.

We have a ridiculous amount of our cap invested in running the ball, along with a 8 foot tall quarterback who continues to set rushing records.

We needed one fuging yard.


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