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Jobless rate falls to 7.8%


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#31 d-run

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Posted 05 October 2012 - 04:11 PM

I haven't looked at the numbers today, but doesn't part time employment always start to pick up this time of year.


The calculation does not include seasonal jobs

Total employment and unemployment are higher in some parts of the year than in others. For example, unemployment is higher in January and February, when it is cold in many parts of the country and work in agriculture, construction, and other seasonal industries is curtailed. Also, both employment and unemployment rise every June, when students enter the labor force in search of summer jobs.
The seasonal fluctuations in the number of employed and unemployed persons reflect not only the normal seasonal weather patterns that tend to be repeated year after year, but also the hiring (and layoff) patterns that accompany regular events such as the winter holiday season and the summer vacation season. These variations make it difficult to tell whether month-to-month changes in employment and unemployment are due to normal seasonal patterns or to changing economic conditions. To deal with such problems, a statistical technique called seasonal adjustment is used. This technique uses the past history of the series to identify the seasonal movements and to calculate the size and direction of these movements. A seasonal adjustment factor is then developed and applied to the estimates to eliminate the effects of regular seasonal fluctuations on the data. When a statistical series has been seasonally adjusted, the normal seasonal fluctuations are smoothed out and data for any month can be more meaningfully compared with data from any other month or with an annual average. Many time series that are based on monthly data are seasonally adjusted.


Here is more information on how the percentage is calculated (every time) if people are interested.
http://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm#sa

#32 Niner National

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Posted 05 October 2012 - 04:12 PM

But not in September

I don't know what qualifies as getting a job, the day you are hired, or the day you start, but I worked retail in college for a couple years and we started hiring for the holidays in September, but they didn't start working until October. Not sure when all stores do it, but I can't imagine there is much difference between major retailers.

#33 stirs

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Posted 06 October 2012 - 06:45 AM

How is it that with the continued "right direction" in the job numbers, the food stamp numbers deep going up?

Would it not make sense iif everyone is better off now than they were, say at the first of the year, then wouldn't the gov assistance numbers be going down also?

#34 Zod

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Posted 06 October 2012 - 09:48 AM

Wow, conservatives making excuses.


Shocker.

#35 stirs

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Posted 06 October 2012 - 10:24 AM

Those were actually questions, thus the ? at the end

#36 PhillyB

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Posted 06 October 2012 - 01:46 PM

employment rate goes down, obama caused it. employment rate goes up, obama got lucky/it's not true/lamestream liberal demoRAT media is lying.

got it.

#37 twylyght

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Posted 06 October 2012 - 03:19 PM

Nope... it's the same as it's been for a while now... that single statistic is not indicative of the job situation in America at this time. Hence the nature of the deceit.

#38 rodeo

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Posted 06 October 2012 - 03:31 PM

i'm sitting here literally shaking i'm so thankful that President Obama did this for us

#39 stirs

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Posted 06 October 2012 - 04:08 PM

i'm sitting here literally shaking i'm so thankful that President Obama did this for us


Dude, you okay now?

#40 beach

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Posted 06 October 2012 - 04:09 PM

o------------------------------o()<

#41 GOOGLE RON PAUL

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Posted 06 October 2012 - 05:48 PM

http://krugman.blogs...h-but-relevant/

krugman has a good piece on the new numbers

Posted Image

this is the current employment rate. according to krugman:

But this measure too has problems; it’s the fraction of people 16 and over at work, which means that the denominator includes a rapidly growing number of seniors, who presumably don’t want to keep working. How can we correct for this demographic bias?


Posted Image

this is the employment rate of workers aged 25-54. this figure shows a gradual upswing. however, while this mitigates the problem of an aging/retiring workforce, it also throws out a couple decades of workers.

Posted Image

this is krugman's model. what he does is divide the workforce into 3 age groups and weights the participation rate by age group circa 2007 to account for pre-recession rates. according to krugman:

This story is, by the way, broadly consistent with the payroll data, from a different survey, which also suggest employment growing somewhat faster than population.
So contra Romney, this is a real recovery. Modest, but real. Unless, of course, you believe that there’s a conspiracy of socialist statisticians


i think he makes a better case than anyone in this thread but ymmv

#42 King

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Posted 07 October 2012 - 11:54 AM

Now that Krugman's come up with an explanation for the drop, I'm sure it's fishy.

#43 pstall

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Posted 07 October 2012 - 01:23 PM

I remember posting LAST year to expect a report like this near Nov. So predictable.

#44 GOOGLE RON PAUL

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Posted 08 October 2012 - 04:34 AM

all krugman did was show that we're likely in a stage of moderate recovery and outside of "the BLS has been infiltrated by socialists that are for some reason hellbent on keeping a center-right corporatist in office" i haven't really seen much of an argument to the contrary

#45 MadHatter

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Posted 08 October 2012 - 06:21 AM

Wow, conservatives making excuses.


Shocker.


And Liberals and the media continuing to support this empty suit of a president.

Spin it any way you want to, the economic policies of Obama are a failure.


Here’s a short little excerpt from CNBC that explains how this ‘odd’ jobs coincident may have occurred:
Job growth remained tame in September, with the economy creating just 114,000 net new positions though the unemployment rate fell to 7.8 percent.
The report presented a slew of contradictory data points, with the total employment level soaring despite the low net number.
The falling jobless rate had been a function as much of the continued shrinking in the labor force as it was an increase in new positions.
But the government said the total number of jobs employed surged by 873,000, the highest one-month jump in 29 years. The total of unemployed people tumbled by 456,000.
So, the number of unemployed dropped 456,000 last month, but only 114,000 jobs got added. That either means that 342,000 people left the US, or they left the work force in one way or another. And last month was supposedly the biggest one month jump in employment in the last 29 years? How fortunate for Obama.

Plain and simple.....the rate went down because people have given up even looking for a job.


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