I will just summarize what I learned and I can talk a little bit more specifically about each QB if someone wants to know about it.

With one lone exception every QB had at least one season of significant regression in their first few years as a starter. When it happened vary from QB to QB. Some it was their 2

^{nd}season as a starter while others it was season 3 or 4 as a starter. But with the exception of Tom Brady, every QB had a significant dip in production at some point in the first few years of their careers. This leads me to believe that with the QB position it isn’t so much a matter of “progression” or “regression”, but more of a typical variance of young QBs learning what it takes to be consistent in the NFL.

I also found that no QB had a steady “progression” to QB prominence. In other words I could find no example of a QB steadily getting statistically better every year until they reached their highest levels. Instead what I found was statistical volatility until eventually the numbers would even out or significantly spike and then become fairly stable on a year to year basis. The magic number varied some but as far as the “game slowing down” for QBs, statistically it appears to happen between years 4 and 7 of a QB’s career. That is typically when you would see a QB’s season to season statistics somewhat stabilize (there is always spikes and lulls but they just aren’t as dramatic as their first few years). John Elway was the only one that didn’t really follow this pattern as his numbers were very volatile all the way through his 10

^{th}season as a starter but then they became incredibly consistent his last 6 years as a starter (when he also happened to win his 2 Super Bowls).

I guess my main point is that with Cam Newton or any young QB the idea that a QB progresses consistently year to year is just not historically accurate. However, as with these 10 QBs there comes a point where the volatility year to year will end and we will have a consistently good QB. It is a matter of when, not if.

So now I will list all 10 QBs and mark their season of “regression” and their turning points and which season as a starter those things happened. I you want me to expound on why a certain season is a “regression” or “turning point” just ask and I will explain why I think that. I was going to summarize each of them but it just would have made this post too long and I didn’t want to overload the fragile minds of most Huddlers.

**Tom Brady:**

*Regressive year*: 2003 3

^{rd}year as starter (admittedly a huge stretch here).

*Turning point*: 2007 7

^{th}year as starter

**Peyton Manning:**

*Regressive year*: 2001 4

^{th}years as starter.

*Turning point*: 2003 6

^{th}year as starter

**Eli Manning:**

*Regressive year:*2007 4

^{th}year as starter

*Turning point:*2008 5

^{th}year as starter (although you could make a case that actual turning point was in 2007 during the playoffs)

**Drew Brees:**

*Regressive year:*2003 2

^{nd}year as starter.

*Turning point*: 2004 3

^{rd}year as starter and had another turning point to HOF status in 2009 his 7

^{th}year as a starter

**Ben Roethlisberger:**

*Regressive year:*2006 3

^{rd}year as starter

*Turning point:*2009 6

^{th}year as starter

**Joe Montana:**

*Regressive year:*1982 2

^{nd}year as full time starter

*Turning point:*1983 3

^{rd}year as full time starter

**Brett Favre:**

*Regressive year:*1993 2

^{nd}year as starter

*Turning point:*1994 3

^{rd}year as starter

**Dan Marino:**

*Regressive year:*1985 3

^{rd}year as starter

*Turning point:*1986 4

^{th}year as starter although I could argue it was actually 1990 9

^{th}year as starter.

**John Elway:**

*Regressive year:*1985 3

^{rd}year as starter and even worse in1992 10

^{th}year as starter

*Turning point:*1993 11

^{th}year as starter

**Terry Bradshaw:**

*Regressive year:*1973 4

^{th}years as starter

*Turning point:*1975 6

^{th}year as starter (he was also terrible in 1974 but the Steelers still won the Super Bowl)

- A few notes and then I will stop

- Eli Manning also won a Super Bowl in his “regressive year” but if people recall earlier that very same year some of his own teammates questioned him and the NY media was wondering if Eli was the long term answer in NY.

- Dan Marino’s “regressive year” was actually pretty good. The main reason is because his 2

^{nd}year as a starter was record breaking and he had no where to go but down. However, he did throw 18 less TDs, 4 more INTs, and his completion percentage dipped by 4% so I would consider that a significant statistical regression

- Some people might note that some of the QBs had really good seasons before their “turning point”. The “turning point” is more about when a QB became statistically consistent more so than when they had their best years. For instance John Elway had several good years before his 11

^{th}season but his year to year statistics were very volatile. His last 6 seasons however were extremely consistent and very good every year. That is why I deemed that his “turning point”

- Aaron Rodgers was not a part of this because he didn't start until his 4th year in the league which is consistent with around the time QBs start to "get it" so he didn't seem to be a good comparative sample to these QBs and Cam Newton.