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A Historical Perspective on the Dreaded QB "Regression"

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Good stuff. Also to note, Cam isn't having that 'down' of a year. He's more or less continuing where he left off last year, the only difference being he doesn't have that rookie label to fall back on.
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Yes, I am bumping my own thread because I put this out at the absolutely worst time. Right when Hurney got fired.

Also because of the other thread that had an anecdotal comparison to Cam (http://www.carolinahuddle.com/boards/topic/78555-comparing-cameron-to-past-greats/) and the great QBs of the past. These are actual tangible statistics and not empty platitudes that are impossible to prove or disprove like in the other thread.
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You wouldn't say Peyton had a turnaround when his team went from 3-13 to 13-3 the next year?

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[quote name='Nobody_Colts' timestamp='1350963881' post='1958513']
You wouldn't say Peyton had a turnaround when his team went from 3-13 to 13-3 the next year?
[/quote]

Quarterback wins are the most fallacious stat in all of pro sports.
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I recall Marty Schottenheimer on Hard Knocks saying that if you can get a QB to play as well his 2nd year as he did his first year, you've made progress...

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[quote name='fieryprophet' timestamp='1350964344' post='1958548']
Quarterback wins are the most fallacious stat in all of pro sports.
[/quote]

Example: Rex Grossman "beat" the Giants twice last year and RG3 lost, so Rex > RG3?

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[quote name='Nobody_Colts' timestamp='1350963881' post='1958513']
You wouldn't say Peyton had a turnaround when his team went from 3-13 to 13-3 the next year?
[/quote]
I was looking at "turning point" not individual turnaround seasons. As I said in my notes several of these guys had good seasons prior to what I labeled their "turning point"

The turning point is when you would see a starting QB's statistics start to stabilize and become consistent.

For instance, with Peyton Manning, his second year (the year you are referencing) he had a good year. He threw 26 TDs and 15 INTs and went 13-3. But then his 4th year he threw 26 TDs and had 23 INTs and his record was 6-10. At that point his stats were very volatile on a year to year basis.

However, in year 6 he threw 29 TDs and 10 INTs and his completion percentage jumped to 67% and then his numbers stabilized in that general area (especially INT% and completion %) for the next 9 seasons including this season (assuming he stays on his current pace this season).

The point of the exercise was that in every young QB's rise there is usually a great deal of volatility from season to season and one season they may play great and the next play very average. But eventually you see the stats solidify and become more consistent. My "turning point" was based on what season you would see that stability happen.

Cam Newton had such an exceptional year that the ONLY way he wouldn't "regress" was if he became a top 5 QB. That is an awful lot to expect from a second year QB. And part of the problem with the media and most fans is that you expect progression from season to season for a young QB. History shows that this isn't normally the case. You usually see progressions and regressions for 5-6 years until a QB hits that "turning point" and becomes a truly consistent and great QB. And I believe that is what the Panthers are going through with Cam. This is just part of the process and not something to freak out about yet.
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Good research. I think most of us who have watched football for more than 10 or 20 years realize the truth in what you have illustrated. Ironically, Cam's QB rating and completion % this year is almost identical to his rating at this time last year. Considering the cluster fug we have experienced with playcalling (imo), that is a miracle in itself.

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[quote name='fieryprophet' timestamp='1350964344' post='1958548']
Quarterback wins are the most fallacious stat in all of pro sports.
[/quote]wow, thanks for the picture!

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very good post, well researched and thoughtful. but if this was an effort to say CAMERON is going to be ok because these accomplished QBS had a dip year, it dont wash. CAMERON doesnt compare favorably to any of the QBS you researched.

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[quote name='natty' timestamp='1350925625' post='1956565']
Good stuff. Also to note, Cam isn't having that 'down' of a year. He's more or less continuing where he left off last year, the only difference being he doesn't have that rookie label to fall back on.
[/quote]CAMERON aint havin a down year? good god man, have u seen a panthers game this year? get ur head out of the sand, u must face facts sooner or later.

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