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Israel Bombs Iranian Missile base in Sudan - Iran mobilizes Navy

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Posted

Those situations you described aren't remotely similar to Israel and Iran. There isn't some balance of evenly matched allies lining up to support one or the other. There isn't going to be a world war because of Israel and Iran. There isn't going to be much of a war period because neither side has the capability to sustain a large scale conflict. And yes, in this case borders do mean a lot.

Neither did Serbia or the severely deteriorated Austro-Hungarian empire. But once the ball was rolling, poo went downhill really quickly, pulling in the powerful nations of the time. That was my point, hyperbolic or not. Even if Israel and Iran do not have a real ground war, even a missile offensive and proxy war has the potential to draw in powers that aren't part of the initial pissing match. With traditional western powers backing Israel and Russia and an emergent China backing Iran, not to mention all the minor surrounding arab nations throwing their own little hissy fits.....This is an area with tremendous natural resources value and just like the Black Sea in world war one, it's strategic value will be defended.

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Posted

I don't see a land war happening. Iran would need to cross over Iraq and or Syria/Jordan. Iran isn't going to invade these counties just to get to Israel nor are they going to get permission just to crossover. Iranian troops would be sitting ducks to Israeli air power and shot to pieces before they even reached Israeli soil. The use of Iraq is out. There is no love lost between the two and Iraq is sick of war. A SLIM possibility is if somehow Iran and Syria work out a deal where Iranian airborne troops could use Syria as a base. But Iran couldn't mass enough troops to make a dent. Again, Isreali air would shoot them out of the skies. It would be a limited war of missiles and Isreali air power kicking ass. Of course Iran would get in their shots as well. The war would come to a close and both sides will declare victory and have parades. A i don't think the Iranian subs will have much effect other than sinking Isreali merchandise shipping. I guess they COULD sail up the Red sea undetected (fat chance of that) and get a lucky shot off the Isreali port of Eilat.

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Posted

I don't see a land war happening. Iran would need to cross over Iraq and or Syria/Jordan. Iran isn't going to invade these counties just to get to Israel nor are they going to get permission just to crossover. Iranian troops would be sitting ducks to Israeli air power and shot to pieces before they even reached Israeli soil. The use of Iraq is out. There is no love lost between the two and Iraq is sick of war. A SLIM possibility is if somehow Iran and Syria work out a deal where Iranian airborne troops could use Syria as a base. But Iran couldn't mass enough troops to make a dent. Again, Isreali air would shoot them out of the skies. It would be a limited war of missiles and Isreali air power kicking ass. Of course Iran would get in their shots as well. The war would come to a close and both sides will declare victory and have parades. A i don't think the Iranian subs will have much effect other than sinking Isreali merchandise shipping. I guess they COULD sail up the Red sea undetected (fat chance of that) and get a lucky shot off the Isreali port of Eilat.

In the unlikely event of an initial ground war. Israel would be the likely invader, not the other way around. It is infinitely more likely that Israel obtains permission Iraq and other us Ally nations to cross their borders with troops than for Iran to do so. But even so, most nations are leery of letting any other country bring troops across their border, no matter their intentions, because of the perceived threat to sovereignty.

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Posted

Israel doesn't have the man power for a full scale invasion. They have a small well trained military keyed for home defense. An invasion of Iran would be astronomical for them. I do see the Israelis knocking off as much Iranian infrastructure as possible therefore pissing off the Russians. That being said i don't see Russia getting involved other than increased money and equipment.

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Posted

Israel doesn't have the man power for a full scale invasion. They have a small well trained military keyed for home defense. An invasion of Iran would be astronomical for them. I do see the Israelis knocking off as much Iranian infrastructure as possible therefore pissing off the Russians. That being said i don't see Russia getting involved other than increased money and equipment.

Israel has almost 800,000 military personnel including reserves. That's more than enough to invade Iran, should they deem it necessary. A real Israeli invasion would almost certainly come with allied air and logistic support. Hence the almost guaranteed escalation potential.

Iran, on the other hand, has about 3.8million military personnel (almost one million more than the US total), including reserve and paramilitary, but by all accounts the Israel military is vastly superior in training.

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Posted

Neither did Serbia or the severely deteriorated Austro-Hungarian empire. But once the ball was rolling, poo went downhill really quickly, pulling in the powerful nations of the time. That was my point, hyperbolic or not. Even if Israel and Iran do not have a real ground war, even a missile offensive and proxy war has the potential to draw in powers that aren't part of the initial pissing match. With traditional western powers backing Israel and Russia and an emergent China backing Iran, not to mention all the minor surrounding arab nations throwing their own little hissy fits.....This is an area with tremendous natural resources value and just like the Black Sea in world war one, it's strategic value will be defended.

I guess there is a remote chance Russia and China are interested enough to get involved, but I just dont see Iran holding enough strategic value to either one. Russia has oil, china has coal, and they both have nukes- I dont see what Iran offers them that would be worth direct military intervention against the America's biggest ally.

Russia and China know that if they attack Israel, they might as well be attacking the US- this is the same sort of deterrent that kept the numerous skirmishes during the Cold War from erupting into outright world war

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Posted

Neither did Serbia or the severely deteriorated Austro-Hungarian empire. But once the ball was rolling, poo went downhill really quickly, pulling in the powerful nations of the time. That was my point, hyperbolic or not. Even if Israel and Iran do not have a real ground war, even a missile offensive and proxy war has the potential to draw in powers that aren't part of the initial pissing match. With traditional western powers backing Israel and Russia and an emergent China backing Iran, not to mention all the minor surrounding arab nations throwing their own little hissy fits.....This is an area with tremendous natural resources value and just like the Black Sea in world war one, it's strategic value will be defended.

Actually, yes they did.

Austria Hungary was part of the Triple Alliance which included Germany and Italy (although Italy had signed a secret treaty with France nullifying their membership in the triple alliance. Serbia was allied with Russia, and Russia was part of the Triple Entente, which included France and the Brits. Austria mobilizes for war which guarantees Russia mobilizes for war, which means Germany mobilizes for war which means France and eventually the Brits mobilize for war. The two groups were roughly even in terms of power.

By comparison, Israel has only one major Allie which just happens to be the world's only super power, (but the US has never had to go to war to assist Israel, and will not have to this time). Iran has no allies that would actually be willing to back it in a war, especially if it involves a potential conflict with the world's only super power. They have a couple of countries they buy weapons from, but they are mostly a pariah among nations. If the Warsaw Pact still existed, their might be some validity to this theory, and even then the warsaw pact would be unlikely to go to war to support Iran. But since it doesn't exist, there is no chance whatsoever of this developing into a major world war.

There are some more likely scenarios that could lead to a world war centered around the middle east down the road, but it ain't happening over this largely irrelevant little dustup.

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Posted

Actually, yes they did.

Austria Hungary was part of the Triple Alliance which included Germany and Italy (although Italy had signed a secret treaty with France nullifying their membership in the triple alliance. Serbia was allied with Russia, and Russia was part of the Triple Entente, which included France and the Brits. Austria mobilizes for war which guarantees Russia mobilizes for war, which means Germany mobilizes for war which means France and eventually the Brits mobilize for war. The two groups were roughly even in terms of power.

Well sorta. Russia wasn't allied with Serbia, they just had trade agreements and allowed Russian passage to the black sea. Threat of Austrian (a Russian rival) control of this important trade route, was what ultimately caused Russia to mobilize.

The German Kaiser, Wilhelm, was actually opposed to the Austrian ultimatum to Serbia and had openly discussed not going to war with Russia at all should France promise neutrality so that they could defend their eastern border from a Russian buildup. When France refused, Germany invoked their Schlieffen plan and invaded France. Unfortunately, Russia was able to mobilize their First and Second armies quicker than Germany had hoped so Germany ended up fighting a two front war anyhow, something that they were trying to avoid. Dumbshit Rumania decided to declare war in year three and Germany subsequently wiped the floor with them, which underminded the Russian line.......but I digress.

None of that really matters.....I just have a history degree so I can't help but go on a ramble sometimes.

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Posted

would be like North Carolina and Oregon going to war.

Yeah! Or the U.S. Going to war in Iraq! or Viet Nam!

wait....

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Posted

Russia will not attack Israel... 30% of Israeli's are former and current Russian citizens and Russia's population consistent of about 30% jews. You do the math.

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Posted

Russia will not attack Israel... 30% of Israeli's are former and current Russian citizens and Russia's population consistent of about 30% jews. You do the math.

There are only like 16 million jews in the world. If 30% of Russia was jewish, there would be 50 million jews in Russia alone.

I did know that a large percentage of Israel was Jewish though. My girlfriends sister went to med-school in Israel and most of her classmates were Russian. Most of her classes were also taught in Russian.

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Posted

War by proxy, via the Palestinians and covertly assassinating scientists is about as intense as it will get short of the US getting involved.

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2012/Oct-31/193364-in-sudan-blast-signs-of-iran-and-israels-rivalry.ashx#axzz2AtaTyyNe

http://www.turkishweekly.net/news/144320/israel-downgrades-iranian-nuclear-threat.html

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