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Floppin

Israel Bombs Iranian Missile base in Sudan - Iran mobilizes Navy

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Neither did Serbia or the severely deteriorated Austro-Hungarian empire. But once the ball was rolling, poo went downhill really quickly, pulling in the powerful nations of the time. That was my point, hyperbolic or not. Even if Israel and Iran do not have a real ground war, even a missile offensive and proxy war has the potential to draw in powers that aren't part of the initial pissing match. With traditional western powers backing Israel and Russia and an emergent China backing Iran, not to mention all the minor surrounding arab nations throwing their own little hissy fits.....This is an area with tremendous natural resources value and just like the Black Sea in world war one, it's strategic value will be defended.

I guess there is a remote chance Russia and China are interested enough to get involved, but I just dont see Iran holding enough strategic value to either one. Russia has oil, china has coal, and they both have nukes- I dont see what Iran offers them that would be worth direct military intervention against the America's biggest ally.

Russia and China know that if they attack Israel, they might as well be attacking the US- this is the same sort of deterrent that kept the numerous skirmishes during the Cold War from erupting into outright world war

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Neither did Serbia or the severely deteriorated Austro-Hungarian empire. But once the ball was rolling, poo went downhill really quickly, pulling in the powerful nations of the time. That was my point, hyperbolic or not. Even if Israel and Iran do not have a real ground war, even a missile offensive and proxy war has the potential to draw in powers that aren't part of the initial pissing match. With traditional western powers backing Israel and Russia and an emergent China backing Iran, not to mention all the minor surrounding arab nations throwing their own little hissy fits.....This is an area with tremendous natural resources value and just like the Black Sea in world war one, it's strategic value will be defended.

Actually, yes they did.

Austria Hungary was part of the Triple Alliance which included Germany and Italy (although Italy had signed a secret treaty with France nullifying their membership in the triple alliance. Serbia was allied with Russia, and Russia was part of the Triple Entente, which included France and the Brits. Austria mobilizes for war which guarantees Russia mobilizes for war, which means Germany mobilizes for war which means France and eventually the Brits mobilize for war. The two groups were roughly even in terms of power.

By comparison, Israel has only one major Allie which just happens to be the world's only super power, (but the US has never had to go to war to assist Israel, and will not have to this time). Iran has no allies that would actually be willing to back it in a war, especially if it involves a potential conflict with the world's only super power. They have a couple of countries they buy weapons from, but they are mostly a pariah among nations. If the Warsaw Pact still existed, their might be some validity to this theory, and even then the warsaw pact would be unlikely to go to war to support Iran. But since it doesn't exist, there is no chance whatsoever of this developing into a major world war.

There are some more likely scenarios that could lead to a world war centered around the middle east down the road, but it ain't happening over this largely irrelevant little dustup.

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Actually, yes they did.

Austria Hungary was part of the Triple Alliance which included Germany and Italy (although Italy had signed a secret treaty with France nullifying their membership in the triple alliance. Serbia was allied with Russia, and Russia was part of the Triple Entente, which included France and the Brits. Austria mobilizes for war which guarantees Russia mobilizes for war, which means Germany mobilizes for war which means France and eventually the Brits mobilize for war. The two groups were roughly even in terms of power.

Well sorta. Russia wasn't allied with Serbia, they just had trade agreements and allowed Russian passage to the black sea. Threat of Austrian (a Russian rival) control of this important trade route, was what ultimately caused Russia to mobilize.

The German Kaiser, Wilhelm, was actually opposed to the Austrian ultimatum to Serbia and had openly discussed not going to war with Russia at all should France promise neutrality so that they could defend their eastern border from a Russian buildup. When France refused, Germany invoked their Schlieffen plan and invaded France. Unfortunately, Russia was able to mobilize their First and Second armies quicker than Germany had hoped so Germany ended up fighting a two front war anyhow, something that they were trying to avoid. Dumbshit Rumania decided to declare war in year three and Germany subsequently wiped the floor with them, which underminded the Russian line.......but I digress.

None of that really matters.....I just have a history degree so I can't help but go on a ramble sometimes.

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would be like North Carolina and Oregon going to war.

Yeah! Or the U.S. Going to war in Iraq! or Viet Nam!

wait....

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Russia will not attack Israel... 30% of Israeli's are former and current Russian citizens and Russia's population consistent of about 30% jews. You do the math.

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Russia will not attack Israel... 30% of Israeli's are former and current Russian citizens and Russia's population consistent of about 30% jews. You do the math.

There are only like 16 million jews in the world. If 30% of Russia was jewish, there would be 50 million jews in Russia alone.

I did know that a large percentage of Israel was Jewish though. My girlfriends sister went to med-school in Israel and most of her classmates were Russian. Most of her classes were also taught in Russian.

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War by proxy, via the Palestinians and covertly assassinating scientists is about as intense as it will get short of the US getting involved.

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2012/Oct-31/193364-in-sudan-blast-signs-of-iran-and-israels-rivalry.ashx#axzz2AtaTyyNe

http://www.turkishweekly.net/news/144320/israel-downgrades-iranian-nuclear-threat.html

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There are only like 16 million jews in the world. If 30% of Russia was jewish, there would be 50 million jews in Russia alone.

I did know that a large percentage of Israel was Jewish though. My girlfriends sister went to med-school in Israel and most of her classmates were Russian. Most of her classes were also taught in Russian.

233,000 Jews in Russia as of 2002.... .0016% of the population

http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/140268#.UJFdWMx7nW-

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233k my ass... they fuging everywhere in Russia. I'm a part jew as well but I'm not considered to be jewish but I can easily get a visa to israel and become citizen within few years.

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Yeah! Or the U.S. Going to war in Iraq! or Viet Nam!

wait....

Wow, you totally missed the point of that post. Went right over your head.

So I will spell it out for you.

Israel and Iran have relatively small populations, with a lot of land owned by other nations between them. Neither country has the logistical capability to launch any kind of real war against the other. Nor do they have the industrial capability to build that logistical structure anytime soon. So the thought of them going to war would be like North Carolina and Oregon going to war, (if North Carolina and Oregon were actual countries that could go to war). Because they have a lot of geography between them without the capability to cover that ground in any fashion that would allow sustained combat operations.

If I had said Texas and Rhode Island, that would be a more valid comparison to the US and Iraq, because Texas would actually enough logisitical capability to go after Rhode Island if they came to blows.

This is not going to cause World War III. The US is not going to get involved if Israel decides on its own to attack Iranian WMD facilities. And if the US decides at some point to attack Iranian WMD's, Israel will not be militarily involved because we don't need them. And none of the nations like China or Russia are going to help Iran because neither of those countries care enough about Iran to come to blows with the US over them, and neither country has the ability to provide any immediate assistance anyway, unless they want to use Nukes (and neither nation is currently that suicidal).

This is going to be just like all the other "oh no, here we go" post about Iran that have occurred here over the past several years. Much ado about mostly nothing. It is an interesting event, and Israel may indeed eventually go after Iranian weapons sites, but this is not a tipping point for WWIII.

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