Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

The Myth of Cam Newton under pressure dispelled

117 posts in this topic

Posted

The "Myth" is that Cam Newton is under radically more pressure than almost all other QB's in the NFL. This is just not true, even using your statistics. I never said that Carolina's offensive line was one of the best in the NFL. Far from it. I like to stick with official NFL stats...sorry, I'm old school. That is why I used "hits"...because I believe it actually gives a very good indication of how often a QB just has to unload the football before he is sacked. You can add hits and sacks together and it still gives a very accurate representation of where Carolina stacks up.

As far as the bottom 10 being "nearly indistinguishable (outside of AZ...clearly the worst in the NFL by far...and yet Kevin Kolb has better numbers than Cam Newton, but that is another story), I simply stated it because it is true. Look at the numbers.

I stated that several teams had (according to your numbers) fewer pressures than Carolina. It is true.

I pointed out who several of those teams were.

I then pointed out several teams whose numbers are virtually identical to Carolina's. Once again it is true. More pressures, true, but VERY, VERY few more.

The chart you posted is available for everyone to see.

There can be no subterfuge on my part.

By the rationale of the majority of the posters on this forum Cam Newton should, at least, have better numbers than Kevin Kolb, Sam Bradford and Blaine Gabbert...yet, mysteriously, he does not....I will not even get into a conversation about the fact that (according to your numbers) rookie Andrew Luck has been pressured almost exactly the same amount as Newton...it is too easy...and too painful....

.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Posted

Not to add fuel to the fire BUT Cam holds onto the ball an average of 3.04 seconds before he throws, is sacked or starts scrambling. That's the third longest time in the NFL. Only Vick and Wilson hold onto the ball for longer. Last year he held onto it for 3.09 seconds.

If he does throw, then it takes on average 2.72 seconds for him to make the throw (third longest). However If he is sacked it means he held onto the ball on average 3.52 seconds (11th longest time allowed in NFL). Finally he decides to scramble after 5.46 seconds ( 4th slowest in the NFL).

Basically Cam's decision making is slow, or he is waiting for a long pass route to develop, or his receivers struggle to open quickly. Cam has just 109 drop backs where he spent less than 2.5 seconds in the pocket that's easily the least amount in the NFL. He hasn't been sacked once in that time. All his sacks have come when he has held onto the ball for longer than 2.5 seconds.

The good news is that ths is something that should improve with experience.

That "hold on to the ball time" is totally broken considering the offense we run.

*(Almost) no snaps under center = No quick throws

*Slow read option passes

So it tells absolutly nothing, end of story.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Posted

The expectations for this team were sky-high for this year, and like it or not (Looking at the Cam haters), the main reason is the numbers that Newton and the offense put up and the expected growth of Newton under the offense that we ran last year. Thats to be expected when a QB comes in and breaks Manning's rookie passing record and had the offense in the top 10 with no training camp.

However, there is a noticeable difference this year and last year. One is that we dont have a 2nd TE on the field, and Cam is absolutely missing that right now. We had Olsen and Shockey as safety valves when Cam was pressured, and he utilized them well as Shockey and Olsen combined for 995 of Cam's 4,051 passing yards last year, which is about 25%. Also we did have production out of the RB's in the screen game to alleviate the pressure, as Stew had 413 yards receiving in 2011. This year, the TE position is severely lacking as Olsen has 497 receiving yards.....the next TE? Barnidge at 28. Also, we havent really run as many screens as we did last year with the running backs. Defenses can key in when there is only one receiving TE to deal with, but when we had two (3 if you include Stew in the screen game), Cam was more effective as he had more mismatches to exploit in the base formation.

Take a look at this also. Cam Newton was 8th in completion percentage against the blitz last year, beating QB's such as Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford, Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, and Matt Schaub, all who were in the playoffs last years as the starting QB with winning records and QB's who people would say are pretty good to elite (in Rodgers case), and just behind Brady who was 7th and is obviously one on the best passers of this generation. What caused such a precipitous drop from where Cam was last year as a QB till to now? The first obviously is the lack of the 2nd TE that Cam loved and the next point that I'm getting to.

The running game (and the scheme for that matter) is horrible. Period. End of story. The lack of a running game is killing us more than anything else this year. Last year Cam, Stewart, and Williams all averaged over 5 yards per rush. Cam averaged 5.6 yards per attempt, and Double Trouble averaged 5.4 yars a carry respectively. This year, Cam still averages 5.6, however, Stewart is averaging only 3.8 yards per attempt, and Williams is averaging only 3.5. The only reason I can think to explain this is the disappointing O-Line, which isnt worth much this year, and the change in scheme from last year. No matter how you twist it, the choice to go from a run based Air Coryell offense to a spread option look has been a complete disaster, and I would dare say is the single biggest reason for Cam's struggles now. Last year, there was more rhythm to the offense than it is now, and the option look is the main culprit for this. No rhythm for the running backs, no push from the O-Line due to the responsibilities that an option dictates.... I guarantee that if Chud could get a redo, he would've expanded on what was done last year, instead of trying to be the innovator that is going to cost him his job.

I didnt mean to make it this long, but I just had a lot to say in regards to some of the things that were being said. Cam isnt as bad as some say because honestly he lost some of what made him effective last year, and Cam can be better than what he was last year, which is incredible because we went about it the wrong way this year. Regardless, change is going to come, and hopefully the new guy looks at more of what we did last year and build on that instead of trying to rewrite the position.

All stats used derived from:

http://www.profootba...1-quarterbacks/

http://www.pro-footb...ms/car/2011.htm

http://www.pro-footb...ms/car/2012.htm

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Posted

Even in 2010, league average was 2.9%. And do you notice a correlation there at all? Teams with exception defenses. But even with your numbers...

4.1% - 8-6

3.7% - 10-5

4.6% - 10-6

3.3% - 11-5.

Eli's the only excpetion but in general, that number goes down, wins go up. BTW check Eli's post season int%...one of the best int the league. He's a pretty crappy regular season QB but he doesn't throw picks in the post season. Same for Brees.

Of course those guys also have something else in addition to defense. Positive TD/TO ratios.

Which one of those guys had a 1-1 or worse TD/TO ratio? 0

Eli 31-25 1.2

Cutler - 23 - 16 - 1.4

Garrard 23 -15 - 1.5

Brees 34-11 - 3.1

But if you have both, a bad int% and throw more Int than TD's you're screwed. It basically means you are giving away posessions and also not scoring on the ones you have. How do you expect to win?

So if you want to win like that, trade Cam for the Bears defense, and it will matter a lot less who is playing QB.

Want more proof? Look at Alex Smith's int% before Harbaugh got there. Up to 2011 he was at 3.7% for his career. Chronic loser. Check his numbers last year. 1.1% NFC Championship game. This year? 2.3%. They're 6-2.

You can find exceptions, but you're still swimming upstream when you have to fight and overcome that as a team. That makes winning very hard.

You keep changing your arguement.

You said name one QB, I gave you several including the Superbowl champ.

Now you shift focus to well, just post season INT %. Then it is positive TD ratio.

The fact you seem to continue to ignore is teams that play all 3 phases compete and can win. That is what we lack..... instead of thinking a 2nd year player should be Brady in his prime and carry his team.

QB play isn't why we havent won in 2011 and 2012. Playing one phase per season is. You play 3 phases with a young QB.....we just haven't.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Posted

Newton needs to throw the ball...not hold on to it for 20 minutes.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Posted

Basically Cam's decision making is slow, or he is waiting for a long pass route to develop, or his receivers struggle to open quickly. Cam has just 109 drop backs where he spent less than 2.5 seconds in the pocket that's easily the least amount in the NFL. He hasn't been sacked once in that time. All his sacks have come when he has held onto the ball for longer than 2.5 seconds.

After watching some tape, it's becoming pretty obvious that our receivers are having a hard time getting off the ball and taking a LONG time to get open. Smitty especially has been suffering in this area, he just doesn't have the burst off the line that really gave defensive backs fits for so long.

The other issue is that for some reason we have almost no timing plays called, but the ones we do he seems to have success with. It seems like Chud/Rivera don't trust him with those sort of throws, but only exacerbating the issue by calling a lot of unnecessary deep routes in awkward situations.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Posted

so just keeping track here:

is YPP still the super duper ultimate end-all, be-all stat or is it INT % now

1 person likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Posted

You keep changing your arguement.

You said name one QB, I gave you several including the Superbowl champ.

Now you shift focus to well, just post season INT %. Then it is positive TD ratio.

The fact you seem to continue to ignore is teams that play all 3 phases compete and can win. That is what we lack..... instead of thinking a 2nd year player should be Brady in his prime and carry his team.

QB play isn't why we havent won in 2011 and 2012. Playing one phase per season is. You play 3 phases with a young QB.....we just haven't.

Because to look at efficiency you need both. Possessions and scoring efficiency. Newton has more of a problem with interceptions so I focused on the main problem. You mentioned superbowl, which is why I mentioned post season. Two of those guys you listed, Eli and Brees step up their game in the post season. They can't win Superbowl either without becoming efficient in the post season. Look at their post season stats.

Eli - 2.2%, 2.1 TD/TO

Brees - 1.0%, 5.5 TD/TO

That's pretty efficient.

And of course you need all 3 phases to win, but when your primary ball handler that touches the ball on every single possession is inefficient, you're just not going to win many football games. Unless, as I stated, you have an elite defense. And in that case, you are winning despite your QB. Not because of him. If you're going to put it on your defense or other parts of your team, then what you need is a game manager, not a gunslinger. That's like your team having a dead weight they need to carry.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Posted

I made a thread in my first week on this fourm stating that Cam Newton needed to be treated like Alex Smith.

By this I assume you mean to continue to start him, support him, build the team around him that will support him, and finally hire a coaching staff that understands how to utilize him?

2 people like this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Posted

my eyes show me that more times than some fans are willing to admit, newton is holding onto the ball too long.

my mouth screams what my eyes show me.

my son's ears can verify the information that my eyes and mouth relay.

So can my girlfriend.

1 person likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Posted

Because to look at efficiency you need both. Possessions and scoring efficiency. Newton has more of a problem with interceptions so I focused on the main problem. You mentioned superbowl, which is why I mentioned post season. Two of those guys you listed, Eli and Brees step up their game in the post season. They can't win Superbowl either without becoming efficient in the post season. Look at their post season stats.

Eli - 2.2%, 2.1 TD/TO

Brees - 1.0%, 5.5 TD/TO

That's pretty efficient.

And of course you need all 3 phases to win, but when your primary ball handler that touches the ball on every single possession is inefficient, you're just not going to win many football games. Unless, as I stated, you have an elite defense. And in that case, you are winning despite your QB. Not because of him. If you're going to put it on your defense or other parts of your team, then what you need is a game manager, not a gunslinger. That's like your team having a dead weight they need to carry.

you said QBs could win w/ a INT % over 3.0. You said to name 1. I named many.

Fact still remains, there are 2 ways to win.

1. Play 3 phases of football.

2. Have an elite all time great QB who carries a team.

We have a young QB, 1 is the only option. 2 has never been option, even for the great QBs when they where young.

You can change what you want to argue 10x, doesn't change this reality.

No one could be efficient doing what Carolina asks of Newton 25 games into their career.....THAT is a reality you simply choose to avoid.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Posted

I have not read through this but Pro football focus has an "Under Pressure" ratings system. I don't know the details as I just glanced at it but it rates Newton as second to last of the starters.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites