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The Myth of Cam Newton under pressure dispelled


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#91 Urrymonster

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Posted 13 November 2012 - 01:53 AM

True, but I'm really disappointed in Gross


He has the least pressure per passing play across our Oline and by far the best
Rushing statistics when a play is run either side of him...

#92 Bwood

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Posted 13 November 2012 - 02:00 AM

He has the least pressure per passing play across our Oline and by far the best
Rushing statistics when a play is run either side of him...


Where are you getting these stats? Gross seems lost out there to me.

#93 Urrymonster

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Posted 13 November 2012 - 02:03 AM

http://www.nfl.com/s...&qualified=true


These stats are sortable...

Just go to the final two columns to allow some of the complete bombast you have read on this forum to sink in...

Cam Newton has been hit 35 times this season...

Mike Vick?? 77 !!!
RG III ?? 51 !!!
Andrew Luck ?? 60 !!!
Cutler ?? 51 !!!
Rodgers ?? 48 !!!
Ryan ?? 47 !!!
Gabbert ?? 47 !!!

As a matter of fact, Cam Newton has been hit the 12th FEWEST times of any QB in the NFL this season...

Now let's hear it...
Why these numbers really don't apply to Cam...
Why Cam is "different"
Why these stats don't mean anything...


Not to add fuel to the fire BUT Cam holds onto the ball an average of 3.04 seconds before he throws, is sacked or starts scrambling. That's the third longest time in the NFL. Only Vick and Wilson hold onto the ball for longer. Last year he held onto it for 3.09 seconds.

If he does throw, then it takes on average 2.72 seconds for him to make the throw (third longest). However If he is sacked it means he held onto the ball on average 3.52 seconds (11th longest time allowed in NFL). Finally he decides to scramble after 5.46 seconds ( 4th slowest in the NFL).

Basically Cam's decision making is slow, or he is waiting for a long pass route to develop, or his receivers struggle to open quickly. Cam has just 109 drop backs where he spent less than 2.5 seconds in the pocket that's easily the least amount in the NFL. He hasn't been sacked once in that time. All his sacks have come when he has held onto the ball for longer than 2.5 seconds.

The good news is that ths is something that should improve with experience.

#94 Bwood

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Posted 13 November 2012 - 02:06 AM

Not to add fuel to the fire BUT Cam holds onto the ball an average of 3.04 seconds before he throws, is sacked or starts scrambling. That's the third longest time in the NFL. Only Vick and Wilson hold onto the ball for longer. Last year he held onto it for 3.09 seconds.

If he does throw, then it takes on average 2.72 seconds for him to make the throw (third longest). However If he is sacked it means he held onto the ball on average 3.52 seconds (11th longest time allowed in NFL). Finally he decides to scramble after 5.46 seconds ( 4th slowest in the NFL).

Basically Cam's decision making is slow, or he is waiting for a long pass route to develop, or his receivers struggle to open quickly. Cam has just 109 drop backs where he spent less than 2.5 seconds in the pocket. He hasn't been sacked once in that time. All his sacks have come when he has held onto the ball for longer than 2.5 seconds.

The good news is that ths is something that should improve with experience.


Don't get me wrong, I'm a huge Gross fan, and I agree that Newton hangs on too long. But you can't agree that Gross isn't coming to the end of his career and on the decline.

I think Gross is a great guy to have around the team still, but we shouldn't pass up on a guy in the draft like Luke Joeckel.

#95 MORON POLICE

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Posted 13 November 2012 - 02:15 AM

Even in 2010, league average was 2.9%. And do you notice a correlation there at all? Teams with exception defenses. But even with your numbers...


4.1% - 8-6
3.7% - 10-5
4.6% - 10-6
3.3% - 11-5.

Eli's the only excpetion but in general, that number goes down, wins go up. BTW check Eli's post season int%...one of the best int the league. He's a pretty crappy regular season QB but he doesn't throw picks in the post season. Same for Brees.

Of course those guys also have something else in addition to defense. Positive TD/TO ratios.

Which one of those guys had a 1-1 or worse TD/TO ratio? 0
Eli 31-25 1.2
Cutler - 23 - 16 - 1.4
Garrard 23 -15 - 1.5
Brees 34-11 - 3.1

But if you have both, a bad int% and throw more Int than TD's you're screwed. It basically means you are giving away posessions and also not scoring on the ones you have. How do you expect to win?

So if you want to win like that, trade Cam for the Bears defense, and it will matter a lot less who is playing QB.

Want more proof? Look at Alex Smith's int% before Harbaugh got there. Up to 2011 he was at 3.7% for his career. Chronic loser. Check his numbers last year. 1.1% NFC Championship game. This year? 2.3%. They're 6-2.

You can find exceptions, but you're still swimming upstream when you have to fight and overcome that as a team. That makes winning very hard.




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#96 MaineManPanther

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Posted 13 November 2012 - 02:21 AM

Thanks for the link.

Take a closer look, though....the bottom 10 teams (outside of AZ) are all very, very close in actual pressure allowed....so close as to be nearly indistinguishable in actual game fact...

So Cam Newton has been under less pressure than:
Andrew Luck and Sam Bradford and Blaine Gabbert, etc....

And virtually the same amount of pressure as:

Jay Cutler and Eli Manning and Matt Ryan and Tony Romo, etc...

The Gabbert comparison is especially embarassing...

Gabbert has been under more pressure and yet his NFL passer rating is virtually identical to Newton's and his total QBR is substantially higher....

I wish I had your numbers to start the thread...
They actually prove my "thesis" quite nicely...

Maybe an incendiary thread comparing Gabbert's play and Newton's play should be started by someone...LOL...


With respect, I dont see how this proves your initial point in this thread. Your thread was stating that Newton under consistent pressure was a myth. And then used faulty logic to imply that this offensive line was one of the better ones. My stats clearly prove that notion wrong.

The fact that others are also under similar pressure is irrelevant to the intial point being made. The fact is this offensive line is currently one of the worst in the Nfl.

Also you are once again have the appearance of being intellectually dishonest.
You consider the top ten "so close as to be nearly indistinguishable".

Yet you considered them disnguished enough to state who had more pressure then Newton ( which is fine) However instead making a similar distinction with those who had less, you instead switch to " virtually the same", despite the fact that two of the teams ( atl, Dal) have a bigger ratio differnce the Jax and Stl.

#97 TonyN

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Posted 13 November 2012 - 04:21 AM

The "Myth" is that Cam Newton is under radically more pressure than almost all other QB's in the NFL. This is just not true, even using your statistics. I never said that Carolina's offensive line was one of the best in the NFL. Far from it. I like to stick with official NFL stats...sorry, I'm old school. That is why I used "hits"...because I believe it actually gives a very good indication of how often a QB just has to unload the football before he is sacked. You can add hits and sacks together and it still gives a very accurate representation of where Carolina stacks up.

As far as the bottom 10 being "nearly indistinguishable (outside of AZ...clearly the worst in the NFL by far...and yet Kevin Kolb has better numbers than Cam Newton, but that is another story), I simply stated it because it is true. Look at the numbers.

I stated that several teams had (according to your numbers) fewer pressures than Carolina. It is true.
I pointed out who several of those teams were.
I then pointed out several teams whose numbers are virtually identical to Carolina's. Once again it is true. More pressures, true, but VERY, VERY few more.
The chart you posted is available for everyone to see.
There can be no subterfuge on my part.

By the rationale of the majority of the posters on this forum Cam Newton should, at least, have better numbers than Kevin Kolb, Sam Bradford and Blaine Gabbert...yet, mysteriously, he does not....I will not even get into a conversation about the fact that (according to your numbers) rookie Andrew Luck has been pressured almost exactly the same amount as Newton...it is too easy...and too painful....



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#98 Thorrez

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Posted 13 November 2012 - 05:02 AM

Not to add fuel to the fire BUT Cam holds onto the ball an average of 3.04 seconds before he throws, is sacked or starts scrambling. That's the third longest time in the NFL. Only Vick and Wilson hold onto the ball for longer. Last year he held onto it for 3.09 seconds.

If he does throw, then it takes on average 2.72 seconds for him to make the throw (third longest). However If he is sacked it means he held onto the ball on average 3.52 seconds (11th longest time allowed in NFL). Finally he decides to scramble after 5.46 seconds ( 4th slowest in the NFL).

Basically Cam's decision making is slow, or he is waiting for a long pass route to develop, or his receivers struggle to open quickly. Cam has just 109 drop backs where he spent less than 2.5 seconds in the pocket that's easily the least amount in the NFL. He hasn't been sacked once in that time. All his sacks have come when he has held onto the ball for longer than 2.5 seconds.

The good news is that ths is something that should improve with experience.


That "hold on to the ball time" is totally broken considering the offense we run.
*(Almost) no snaps under center = No quick throws
*Slow read option passes

So it tells absolutly nothing, end of story.

#99 roaddog96

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Posted 13 November 2012 - 05:03 AM

The expectations for this team were sky-high for this year, and like it or not (Looking at the Cam haters), the main reason is the numbers that Newton and the offense put up and the expected growth of Newton under the offense that we ran last year. Thats to be expected when a QB comes in and breaks Manning's rookie passing record and had the offense in the top 10 with no training camp.

However, there is a noticeable difference this year and last year. One is that we dont have a 2nd TE on the field, and Cam is absolutely missing that right now. We had Olsen and Shockey as safety valves when Cam was pressured, and he utilized them well as Shockey and Olsen combined for 995 of Cam's 4,051 passing yards last year, which is about 25%. Also we did have production out of the RB's in the screen game to alleviate the pressure, as Stew had 413 yards receiving in 2011. This year, the TE position is severely lacking as Olsen has 497 receiving yards.....the next TE? Barnidge at 28. Also, we havent really run as many screens as we did last year with the running backs. Defenses can key in when there is only one receiving TE to deal with, but when we had two (3 if you include Stew in the screen game), Cam was more effective as he had more mismatches to exploit in the base formation.

Take a look at this also. Cam Newton was 8th in completion percentage against the blitz last year, beating QB's such as Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford, Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, and Matt Schaub, all who were in the playoffs last years as the starting QB with winning records and QB's who people would say are pretty good to elite (in Rodgers case), and just behind Brady who was 7th and is obviously one on the best passers of this generation. What caused such a precipitous drop from where Cam was last year as a QB till to now? The first obviously is the lack of the 2nd TE that Cam loved and the next point that I'm getting to.

The running game (and the scheme for that matter) is horrible. Period. End of story. The lack of a running game is killing us more than anything else this year. Last year Cam, Stewart, and Williams all averaged over 5 yards per rush. Cam averaged 5.6 yards per attempt, and Double Trouble averaged 5.4 yars a carry respectively. This year, Cam still averages 5.6, however, Stewart is averaging only 3.8 yards per attempt, and Williams is averaging only 3.5. The only reason I can think to explain this is the disappointing O-Line, which isnt worth much this year, and the change in scheme from last year. No matter how you twist it, the choice to go from a run based Air Coryell offense to a spread option look has been a complete disaster, and I would dare say is the single biggest reason for Cam's struggles now. Last year, there was more rhythm to the offense than it is now, and the option look is the main culprit for this. No rhythm for the running backs, no push from the O-Line due to the responsibilities that an option dictates.... I guarantee that if Chud could get a redo, he would've expanded on what was done last year, instead of trying to be the innovator that is going to cost him his job.

I didnt mean to make it this long, but I just had a lot to say in regards to some of the things that were being said. Cam isnt as bad as some say because honestly he lost some of what made him effective last year, and Cam can be better than what he was last year, which is incredible because we went about it the wrong way this year. Regardless, change is going to come, and hopefully the new guy looks at more of what we did last year and build on that instead of trying to rewrite the position.

All stats used derived from:
http://www.profootba...1-quarterbacks/
http://www.pro-footb...ms/car/2011.htm
http://www.pro-footb...ms/car/2012.htm

#100 DeAngelo's #1 Fan(CRA)

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Posted 13 November 2012 - 07:22 AM

Even in 2010, league average was 2.9%. And do you notice a correlation there at all? Teams with exception defenses. But even with your numbers...


4.1% - 8-6
3.7% - 10-5
4.6% - 10-6
3.3% - 11-5.

Eli's the only excpetion but in general, that number goes down, wins go up. BTW check Eli's post season int%...one of the best int the league. He's a pretty crappy regular season QB but he doesn't throw picks in the post season. Same for Brees.

Of course those guys also have something else in addition to defense. Positive TD/TO ratios.

Which one of those guys had a 1-1 or worse TD/TO ratio? 0
Eli 31-25 1.2
Cutler - 23 - 16 - 1.4
Garrard 23 -15 - 1.5
Brees 34-11 - 3.1

But if you have both, a bad int% and throw more Int than TD's you're screwed. It basically means you are giving away posessions and also not scoring on the ones you have. How do you expect to win?

So if you want to win like that, trade Cam for the Bears defense, and it will matter a lot less who is playing QB.

Want more proof? Look at Alex Smith's int% before Harbaugh got there. Up to 2011 he was at 3.7% for his career. Chronic loser. Check his numbers last year. 1.1% NFC Championship game. This year? 2.3%. They're 6-2.

You can find exceptions, but you're still swimming upstream when you have to fight and overcome that as a team. That makes winning very hard.


You keep changing your arguement.

You said name one QB, I gave you several including the Superbowl champ.

Now you shift focus to well, just post season INT %. Then it is positive TD ratio.

The fact you seem to continue to ignore is teams that play all 3 phases compete and can win. That is what we lack..... instead of thinking a 2nd year player should be Brady in his prime and carry his team.

QB play isn't why we havent won in 2011 and 2012. Playing one phase per season is. You play 3 phases with a young QB.....we just haven't.

#101 iamcline

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Posted 13 November 2012 - 07:29 AM

Newton needs to throw the ball...not hold on to it for 20 minutes.

#102 Brandon

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Posted 13 November 2012 - 07:31 AM

Basically Cam's decision making is slow, or he is waiting for a long pass route to develop, or his receivers struggle to open quickly. Cam has just 109 drop backs where he spent less than 2.5 seconds in the pocket that's easily the least amount in the NFL. He hasn't been sacked once in that time. All his sacks have come when he has held onto the ball for longer than 2.5 seconds.


After watching some tape, it's becoming pretty obvious that our receivers are having a hard time getting off the ball and taking a LONG time to get open. Smitty especially has been suffering in this area, he just doesn't have the burst off the line that really gave defensive backs fits for so long.

The other issue is that for some reason we have almost no timing plays called, but the ones we do he seems to have success with. It seems like Chud/Rivera don't trust him with those sort of throws, but only exacerbating the issue by calling a lot of unnecessary deep routes in awkward situations.

#103 I Mean He Was Found Guilty

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Posted 13 November 2012 - 08:23 AM

so just keeping track here:

is YPP still the super duper ultimate end-all, be-all stat or is it INT % now

#104 ReturnOfPFFL

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Posted 13 November 2012 - 10:16 AM

You keep changing your arguement.

You said name one QB, I gave you several including the Superbowl champ.

Now you shift focus to well, just post season INT %. Then it is positive TD ratio.

The fact you seem to continue to ignore is teams that play all 3 phases compete and can win. That is what we lack..... instead of thinking a 2nd year player should be Brady in his prime and carry his team.

QB play isn't why we havent won in 2011 and 2012. Playing one phase per season is. You play 3 phases with a young QB.....we just haven't.



Because to look at efficiency you need both. Possessions and scoring efficiency. Newton has more of a problem with interceptions so I focused on the main problem. You mentioned superbowl, which is why I mentioned post season. Two of those guys you listed, Eli and Brees step up their game in the post season. They can't win Superbowl either without becoming efficient in the post season. Look at their post season stats.

Eli - 2.2%, 2.1 TD/TO
Brees - 1.0%, 5.5 TD/TO

That's pretty efficient.

And of course you need all 3 phases to win, but when your primary ball handler that touches the ball on every single possession is inefficient, you're just not going to win many football games. Unless, as I stated, you have an elite defense. And in that case, you are winning despite your QB. Not because of him. If you're going to put it on your defense or other parts of your team, then what you need is a game manager, not a gunslinger. That's like your team having a dead weight they need to carry.

#105 tiger7_88

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Posted 13 November 2012 - 10:24 AM

I made a thread in my first week on this fourm stating that Cam Newton needed to be treated like Alex Smith.


By this I assume you mean to continue to start him, support him, build the team around him that will support him, and finally hire a coaching staff that understands how to utilize him?


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