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The Myth of Cam Newton under pressure dispelled


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#85 teeray

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Posted 12 November 2012 - 11:54 PM

Stop looking at one exception of a HOF quarterback to make your point, when 99% of reality aligns with what I am saying.

The era of the gunslinger is over. Farve was the last remaining dinosaur of that era. When Aaron came in they won a ring with the same team. When Farve saw that and stopped slinging it he had his best year at 40 with the Vikings by becoming an efficient passer.

Sure, you can win in an inefficient manner. In technical terms, it's not impossible. It's just not realistic. It's also not practical, and definitely not sustainable. You certainly can't do it when you don't have the Bears defense to save you. And why would you want to? Why would you want to win DESPITE your quarterback's play? You want to become the Jets?

The reality is we don't have an efficient passer. We have a gunslinger in an era of sharp shooters. It just doesn't work.

Well to be fair and to my main point I think we can agree that Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger, and Drew Brees are the 6 best QBs in the NFL right now.

In Peyton Manning 4th year as a starter he had an INT% of 4.2%

In Eli Manning's 4th year as a starter he had an INT% of 3.8% and in 2010 it was 4.6%

In Big Ben's 3rd year as a starter he had an INT% of 4.9%

In Drew Brees' 2nd year as a starter he had an INT% of 4.2%

Tom Brady is the exception to the rule.

Aaron Rodgers didn't start until his 4th year in the league.

So 4 of the top 6 had a year worse than what Cam is doing right now.

So my major overlying point is that this is part of the maturation process that virtually every QB not names Tom Brady goes through. Cam is no different and it is part of the process of developing as an NFL QB.

If his INT% is still this high in 3 years then you may be right. But right now I think it is foolish to make any grand statement that it is anything other than what it is. A young QB developing.

#86 MaineManPanther

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Posted 12 November 2012 - 11:54 PM

Can you post a link to your numbers? They are not checking out with NFL stats that are available from other sites...Especially your rankings...


Not surprising, but I defer to Pff for stats as they watch the same every play in a game multiple times before they record it down as fact.

It's Profootballfocus.com but you need to pay for their premium stats to get the ones I'm referring to.
However here is a screenshot displaying the numbers and rankings I spoke of. Apologies for the size, but you can see it well enough.

Attached File  image.jpg   195.71KB   16 downloads

It's ranked in reverse order. As you can see the ratio on the far right gets higher( i.e. more efficent) as it goes lower to the better teams in the ranking.

#87 I Mean He Was Found Guilty

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Posted 13 November 2012 - 12:04 AM

teeray picking up right where he left off i see

#88 TonyN

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Posted 13 November 2012 - 12:20 AM

Not surprising, but I defer to Pff for stats as they watch the same every play in a game multiple times before they record it down as fact.

It's Profootballfocus.com but you need to pay for their premium stats to get the ones I'm referring to.
However here is a screenshot displaying the numbers and rankings I spoke of. Apologies for the size, but you can see it well enough.

Attached File  image.jpg   195.71KB   16 downloads

It's ranked in reverse order. As you can see the ratio on the far right gets higher( i.e. more efficent) as it goes lower to the better teams in the ranking.


Thanks for the link.

Take a closer look, though....the bottom 10 teams (outside of AZ) are all very, very close in actual pressure allowed....so close as to be nearly indistinguishable in actual game fact...

So Cam Newton has been under less pressure than:
Andrew Luck and Sam Bradford and Blaine Gabbert, etc....

And virtually the same amount of pressure as:

Jay Cutler and Eli Manning and Matt Ryan and Tony Romo, etc...

The Gabbert comparison is especially embarassing...

Gabbert has been under more pressure and yet his NFL passer rating is virtually identical to Newton's and his total QBR is substantially higher....

I wish I had your numbers to start the thread...
They actually prove my "thesis" quite nicely...

Maybe an incendiary thread comparing Gabbert's play and Newton's play should be started by someone...LOL...

#89 Marguide

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Posted 13 November 2012 - 12:25 AM

teeray picking up right where he left off i see


And still the same old PFFL (who apparently is not really a Panther Fan For Life). He throws out an overwhelming stat that trumps all. People then point out the fallacy of his stat, so he moves to another number to prove his point until that too gets blown out of the water. Rinse and repeat.

Reading this thread is like deja vu all over again.

#90 ReturnOfPFFL

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Posted 13 November 2012 - 12:44 AM

Well, 2012 isn't finished so let's go with what is in the books. 2010 is a good year since the champion meets your billing.


2010
Brees went 11-5 with a 3.3 % - Superbowl Champ (like Eli and Big Ben in recent prior years)
Eli went 10-6 with a 4.6 %
Cutler went 10-5 with a 3.7 %
Garrard went 8-6 with a 4.1%


Even in 2010, league average was 2.9%. And do you notice a correlation there at all? Teams with exception defenses. But even with your numbers...


4.1% - 8-6
3.7% - 10-5
4.6% - 10-6
3.3% - 11-5.

Eli's the only excpetion but in general, that number goes down, wins go up. BTW check Eli's post season int%...one of the best int the league. He's a pretty crappy regular season QB but he doesn't throw picks in the post season. Same for Brees.

Of course those guys also have something else in addition to defense. Positive TD/TO ratios.

Which one of those guys had a 1-1 or worse TD/TO ratio? 0
Eli 31-25 1.2
Cutler - 23 - 16 - 1.4
Garrard 23 -15 - 1.5
Brees 34-11 - 3.1

But if you have both, a bad int% and throw more Int than TD's you're screwed. It basically means you are giving away posessions and also not scoring on the ones you have. How do you expect to win?

So if you want to win like that, trade Cam for the Bears defense, and it will matter a lot less who is playing QB.

Want more proof? Look at Alex Smith's int% before Harbaugh got there. Up to 2011 he was at 3.7% for his career. Chronic loser. Check his numbers last year. 1.1% NFC Championship game. This year? 2.3%. They're 6-2.

You can find exceptions, but you're still swimming upstream when you have to fight and overcome that as a team. That makes winning very hard.

#91 Urrymonster

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Posted 13 November 2012 - 01:53 AM

True, but I'm really disappointed in Gross


He has the least pressure per passing play across our Oline and by far the best
Rushing statistics when a play is run either side of him...

#92 Bwood

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Posted 13 November 2012 - 02:00 AM

He has the least pressure per passing play across our Oline and by far the best
Rushing statistics when a play is run either side of him...


Where are you getting these stats? Gross seems lost out there to me.

#93 Urrymonster

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Posted 13 November 2012 - 02:03 AM

http://www.nfl.com/s...&qualified=true


These stats are sortable...

Just go to the final two columns to allow some of the complete bombast you have read on this forum to sink in...

Cam Newton has been hit 35 times this season...

Mike Vick?? 77 !!!
RG III ?? 51 !!!
Andrew Luck ?? 60 !!!
Cutler ?? 51 !!!
Rodgers ?? 48 !!!
Ryan ?? 47 !!!
Gabbert ?? 47 !!!

As a matter of fact, Cam Newton has been hit the 12th FEWEST times of any QB in the NFL this season...

Now let's hear it...
Why these numbers really don't apply to Cam...
Why Cam is "different"
Why these stats don't mean anything...


Not to add fuel to the fire BUT Cam holds onto the ball an average of 3.04 seconds before he throws, is sacked or starts scrambling. That's the third longest time in the NFL. Only Vick and Wilson hold onto the ball for longer. Last year he held onto it for 3.09 seconds.

If he does throw, then it takes on average 2.72 seconds for him to make the throw (third longest). However If he is sacked it means he held onto the ball on average 3.52 seconds (11th longest time allowed in NFL). Finally he decides to scramble after 5.46 seconds ( 4th slowest in the NFL).

Basically Cam's decision making is slow, or he is waiting for a long pass route to develop, or his receivers struggle to open quickly. Cam has just 109 drop backs where he spent less than 2.5 seconds in the pocket that's easily the least amount in the NFL. He hasn't been sacked once in that time. All his sacks have come when he has held onto the ball for longer than 2.5 seconds.

The good news is that ths is something that should improve with experience.

#94 Bwood

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Posted 13 November 2012 - 02:06 AM

Not to add fuel to the fire BUT Cam holds onto the ball an average of 3.04 seconds before he throws, is sacked or starts scrambling. That's the third longest time in the NFL. Only Vick and Wilson hold onto the ball for longer. Last year he held onto it for 3.09 seconds.

If he does throw, then it takes on average 2.72 seconds for him to make the throw (third longest). However If he is sacked it means he held onto the ball on average 3.52 seconds (11th longest time allowed in NFL). Finally he decides to scramble after 5.46 seconds ( 4th slowest in the NFL).

Basically Cam's decision making is slow, or he is waiting for a long pass route to develop, or his receivers struggle to open quickly. Cam has just 109 drop backs where he spent less than 2.5 seconds in the pocket. He hasn't been sacked once in that time. All his sacks have come when he has held onto the ball for longer than 2.5 seconds.

The good news is that ths is something that should improve with experience.


Don't get me wrong, I'm a huge Gross fan, and I agree that Newton hangs on too long. But you can't agree that Gross isn't coming to the end of his career and on the decline.

I think Gross is a great guy to have around the team still, but we shouldn't pass up on a guy in the draft like Luke Joeckel.

#95 MORON POLICE

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Posted 13 November 2012 - 02:15 AM

Even in 2010, league average was 2.9%. And do you notice a correlation there at all? Teams with exception defenses. But even with your numbers...


4.1% - 8-6
3.7% - 10-5
4.6% - 10-6
3.3% - 11-5.

Eli's the only excpetion but in general, that number goes down, wins go up. BTW check Eli's post season int%...one of the best int the league. He's a pretty crappy regular season QB but he doesn't throw picks in the post season. Same for Brees.

Of course those guys also have something else in addition to defense. Positive TD/TO ratios.

Which one of those guys had a 1-1 or worse TD/TO ratio? 0
Eli 31-25 1.2
Cutler - 23 - 16 - 1.4
Garrard 23 -15 - 1.5
Brees 34-11 - 3.1

But if you have both, a bad int% and throw more Int than TD's you're screwed. It basically means you are giving away posessions and also not scoring on the ones you have. How do you expect to win?

So if you want to win like that, trade Cam for the Bears defense, and it will matter a lot less who is playing QB.

Want more proof? Look at Alex Smith's int% before Harbaugh got there. Up to 2011 he was at 3.7% for his career. Chronic loser. Check his numbers last year. 1.1% NFC Championship game. This year? 2.3%. They're 6-2.

You can find exceptions, but you're still swimming upstream when you have to fight and overcome that as a team. That makes winning very hard.




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#96 MaineManPanther

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Posted 13 November 2012 - 02:21 AM

Thanks for the link.

Take a closer look, though....the bottom 10 teams (outside of AZ) are all very, very close in actual pressure allowed....so close as to be nearly indistinguishable in actual game fact...

So Cam Newton has been under less pressure than:
Andrew Luck and Sam Bradford and Blaine Gabbert, etc....

And virtually the same amount of pressure as:

Jay Cutler and Eli Manning and Matt Ryan and Tony Romo, etc...

The Gabbert comparison is especially embarassing...

Gabbert has been under more pressure and yet his NFL passer rating is virtually identical to Newton's and his total QBR is substantially higher....

I wish I had your numbers to start the thread...
They actually prove my "thesis" quite nicely...

Maybe an incendiary thread comparing Gabbert's play and Newton's play should be started by someone...LOL...


With respect, I dont see how this proves your initial point in this thread. Your thread was stating that Newton under consistent pressure was a myth. And then used faulty logic to imply that this offensive line was one of the better ones. My stats clearly prove that notion wrong.

The fact that others are also under similar pressure is irrelevant to the intial point being made. The fact is this offensive line is currently one of the worst in the Nfl.

Also you are once again have the appearance of being intellectually dishonest.
You consider the top ten "so close as to be nearly indistinguishable".

Yet you considered them disnguished enough to state who had more pressure then Newton ( which is fine) However instead making a similar distinction with those who had less, you instead switch to " virtually the same", despite the fact that two of the teams ( atl, Dal) have a bigger ratio differnce the Jax and Stl.