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Jawnyblaze's Multi-Scenario Mock Drafts: Take One


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#1 JawnyBlaze

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Posted 29 November 2012 - 07:23 AM

I'm going to present a few scenarios, some more likely than others, about how I think we *SHOULD* (not necessarily will, since we'll have a new GM and we'll have no idea what to expect from him). Obviously these scenarios will be based on popular opinions of players as of right now. I will be researching the players to the best of my abilities using the typical resources (ESPN's Scout, Walter, DraftTek, etc) as well as YouTube. For most of the early picks I'll have backup choices in case the first option is gone. For the scenarios after Scenario 1 I'll only give the first two rounds and any additional picks we might acquire since our draft position won't matter as much at that point.

Scenario 1: Panthers finish off the year like we started it and end up with somewhere between a 4-12 and 6-10 record, good enough for #2-10 overall. (Most likely)

Round 1: Star Lotulelei, DT. With Ron Edwards ending up on IR again, our biggest need is our stud DT for the future. Luckily this year's draft class' strengths align with our needs pretty well, with one exception (WR). Star has the first step and strength to be an annual All-Pro. Not much needs to be said about him, he's been discussed at length on this board. Backup options: With the Chiefs almost certain to pick a QB, and Raiders most likely taking a pass rusher the Jags are the only competition for Star. If someone takes Star ahead of us Johnathan Hankins or Luke Joeckel should be our pick. There's not much of a drop-off from Star to Hankins, but enough to consider Joeckel. The choice could be made easy if Joeckel and Star are both gone. I don't really foresee all three of these guys gone before we pick.

Round 2: Robert Woods, WR. Woods' stock had been taking a significant hit lately, and if Hurney were still here this would be a no-brainer if Woods is available. Despite the negative connotation behind that statement, I still think he'd be a good pick. Cordarelle Patterson and Da'Rick Rogers are others that are popular picks here but I'm assuming Patterson will be gone (late 1st) and Rogers' off-field issues are enough to make any GM hired by JR choose the safer route in Woods. Backup options: Other than some other WR, I think OG or FS would be a good value here. Warmack and Cooper will likely be gone already, so the next OG looks to be Barrett Jones. Taking a FS here would be tricky (and I actually think Martin has played well enough lately that a new, unbiased, coach might be willing to give him another shot) but I would definitely not be surprised if we did go with a FS in the 2nd. My choice (that would likely be available) is Bacarri Rambo. The reward vs. the risk is greater with this guy than some (for example, Rogers' potential reward isn't greater enough to warrant taking him over Woods or Patterson or a couple other guys possibly). In my opinion, Rambo's potential reward is.

Round 4: Larry Warford, OG. We need to fix RG. Honestly, I don't know much about this guy other than what I've read on some draft sites. Sounds like a very solid OG and could quite possibly be gone before we pick. Backup options: Another OG like Gabe Jackson or Travis Bond. A TE like one of the Stanford boys Zach Ertz or Levine Toilolo, or Joseph Fauria (sounds like he'll be a combine riser). But if we take a TE, he can't be from the mold of some of the recent mid round TEs that are too small to be effective blockers and can only pass catch. He has to be able to block too.

Round 5: Dustin Hopkins, K. We NEED to fix our Kicker problem. I would have no problem with spending an early day 3 pick on the best Kicker, whether it's Hopkins, Caleb Sturgis, or whoever else. Backup options: One of the aforementioned TEs.

Round 6: Margus Hunt, DE. I'm not doing staff hiring mocks, but I'd guess Ross has the inside track for now. If he's our guy, then we can assume he'll bring the "never too many pass rusher" philosphy. Hunt might be gone before the 6th, but he's a terribly raw guy with some good potential and good measurables to build off of. Backup options: A different DE, an OG or a TE.

Summary

Round 1: Star Lotulelei, DT
Round 2: Robert Woods, WR
Round 4: Larry Warford, OG
Round 5:Dustin Hopkins, K
Round 6: Margus Hunt, DE

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Scenario 2: We finish the season terribly, end up with the #2-4 overall pick and trade it to the Rams (who take Luke Joeckel) for their two 1st round picks (both in the mid teens) and 3rd round pick. (Probably the most desirable scenario, but least likely.)

Round 1: Chance Warmack, OG. Fix our hole at RG with one of the better prospects available, Ignore the positional value, I'm reading the same things about him that I was about DeCastro last year, "best OG prospect since Steve Hutchinson" yaddayaddayadda. Backup options: If Warmack is gone, maybe Hankins, Star, or Sylvester Williams drops to here.

Round 1: Keenan Allen, WR. I know there's lots of disagreement on who the better WRs are in this class. I don't have a strong opinion. This pick could be Allen, Justin Hunter or Cordarelle Patterson, but we need to get Smitty's replacement pronto. Backup options:

Round 2: Louis Nix, DT. There are a bunch of tier 2 DTs (Nix, Jesse Williams, Sharrif Floyd, Jonathan Jenkins, Kawaan Short to name a few) but I think Nix fits our need the best. We won't need an UT as much as a NT, but we don't need a guy like Jenkins who should probably go to a 3-4 defense. Backup options: Jesse Williams, Sharrif Floyd, Kawaan Short would still be useful. If they don't go DT, go with a FS like Rambo or Lester or McDonald.

Round 3: Bacarri Rambo, FS. We'll probably need a FS (though like I said earlier, Martin's looked a lot more capable for a few games now, he might get another shot at the starting gig) so if Rambo is available, he's our guy. At the very least, he'll be competition for Martin and may the best man win. Backup options: One of the other FS's or one of TEs mentioned in the Round 4 backup options above.

Round 4: Levine Toilolo, TE. Since we hit OG in Round 1, I'll need to change this pick. I'm assuming Tyler Eifert, Ertz, and Fauria are all gone. If not, grab one of them (in the order mentioned), Toilolo is a big guy that can block and has good hands, could be a gem.

Summary

Round 1: Chance Warmack, OG
Round 1: Keenan Allen, WR
Round 2: Louis Nix, DT
Round 3: Bacarri Rambo, FS
Round 4: Levine Toilolo, TE
Round 5:Dustin Hopkins, K
Round 6: Margus Hunt, DE

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Scenario 3: Same outcome to the season as Scenario 1, but we go a different route with the 1st pick.

Round 1: Luke Joeckel, OT. Gross ain't getting any younger and we could decide to grab an elite LT to take his place in (what we hope) is the last draft we ever pick this high again. (Not going to do other options since this scenario is basically the flip-side of the coin to Scenario 1.)

Round 2: Louis Nix, DT. This draft, we use our first two picks to solidify the trenches. Backup options: Cordarelle Patterson, Robert Woods, Da'Rick Rogers, DeAndre Hopkins, Bacarri Rambo, TJ McDonald.

Round 4: Robert Lester, FS. I'd take Rambo if he's here, but I'll assume he's not. Lester could also very likely be gone before Round 4, but I don't think there will be 5 or 6 FS's taken in the first 3 rounds, so among Rambo, Lester, McDonald, Reid, Jefferson, and any potential combine risers, someone's going to fall to the 4th. Backup options: A good value WR (maybe Rogers falls this far due to his off-field problems) or an OG like Larry Warford, Gabe Jackson or Travis Bond or TE like Zach Ertz, Levine Toilolo, or Joseph Fauria.

Summary

Round 1: Luke Joeckel, OT
Round 2: Louis Nix, DT
Round 4: Robert Lester, FS
Round 5:Dustin Hopkins, K
Round 6: Margus Hunt, DE


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Scenario 4: We win out (or lose just 1 more) to finish 7-9 or 8-8 and have a pick in the mid teens. (Ok, I lied in scenario 2. THIS is the least likely scenario.)

Round 1: Chance Warmack, OG. See Scenario 2's write up.

Round 2: Louis Nix, DT. See Scenario 2's write up.

Round 4: Da'Rick Rogers, WR. We need a potential #1 WR and in the 4th round, the reward outweighs the risk. Backup options: A different WR (like DeAndre Hopkins) or a FS.

Summary

Round 1: Chance Warmack, OG
Round 2: Louis Nix, DT
Round 4: Da'Rick Rogers, WR (or DeAndre Hopkins if you don't think Rogers will be there)
Round 5:Dustin Hopkins, K
Round 6: Margus Hunt, DE
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Scenario 5: This scenario is for the critics of Scenario 2 who think if we trade down we won't be able to get a fair trade value, and we trade down from a top 3 pick to (we'll just estimate) pick #7 and pick up a 2nd (again, assuming this is with the Rams or Cardinals for Joeckel or a QB.)

Round 1: Johnathan Hankins, DT. Star and Joeckel will be long gone. With at LEAST 1 QB being taken in the 6 picks before us, at LEAST 1 3-4 pass rusher (Jarvis Jones) being taken, that leaves 2 potential spots for Hankins to be taken before us. Those are decent odds, and I think he'd be there for us. Te'o could very likely go in the top 6, Demontre Moore could, too. Not to mention another QB. So I think there's a good chance Hankins will be available if we're at #7. Backup options: If Hankins wasn't available, I'd be looking hard for another trade down. None of our needs meets value at this spot with what I'm thinking will be available.

Round 2: Robert Woods. See Scenario 1.

Round 2: Barrett Jones. Warmack will definitely be gone, and Cooper will probably be gone too (even if he's not, from what I've read he's not our type of Guard - more of a zone blocking scheme G.) Jones is a good OG, good value at this spot. If not Jones, maybe Dallas Thomas. Backup options: An OT like Jake Matthews or DJ Fluker. Preferrably a LT, though.

Round 4: Robert Lester, FS. See Scenario 3.

Summary

Round 1: Johnathan Hankins, DT
Round 2: Robert Woods, WR
Round 2: Barrett Jones, OG
Round 4: Robert Lester, FS
Round 5:Dustin Hopkins, K
Round 6: Margus Hunt, DE

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I may add more or alter these when we get a better picture of where our draft will be and where the stocks of the players ends up after the season.

#2 DaCityKats

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Posted 29 November 2012 - 09:10 AM

i like all options that include drafting a WR early.

#3 carolina-chuck

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Posted 29 November 2012 - 09:27 AM

I like scenario 1. Star or Hankins is a no brainer pick if they're there. Joeckel behind the two of them. If be crying if Woods or Patterson fall to us in the 2nd.

Scenario 2, I dnt think the rams would be giving up two 1st rounders for Joeckel. More like we switch pick and get their 2nd. Which I'd take that in a heart beat.

I hate scenario 4. No reason for us to take another high round OG in back to back season. I'd hate to spend a 1st on a OG. I rather go a WR/FS in the 2nd than taking Nix. And you can't really believe Rogers will be there in the 4th.

#4 OnlyPantherFaninMaine

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Posted 29 November 2012 - 02:03 PM

Safe to say a lot rests on our draft position and we could go so many different directions come draft day. It's going to be exciting haha.

#5 JawnyBlaze

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Posted 29 November 2012 - 02:19 PM

Scenario 2, I dnt think the rams would be giving up two 1st rounders for Joeckel. More like we switch pick and get their 2nd. Which I'd take that in a heart beat.


Two mid round 1sts and a 3rd is quite cheap for a top 3 or 4 overall pick. No way we'd only get a 2nd out of it. Look at what the Redskins gave up to move up fewer spots. Of course we wouldn't get quite that deal because it's not for a QB, and maybe the Rams don't want to move up to get Joeckel, but no way we trade down into the mid teens from top 4 and only get a 2nd.

#6 TMS3426

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Posted 29 November 2012 - 03:38 PM

Great topic. I like the trade with the Rams. Gives us a bunch of options and the team will get better faster.

#7 CardiacCats

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Posted 29 November 2012 - 04:11 PM

LOL if you think the rams would do that trade, some of y'all need to get your heads out of your asses

#8 TMS3426

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Posted 29 November 2012 - 05:04 PM

Way to contribute. What's your opinion on what will take place?

#9 C47

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Posted 29 November 2012 - 07:25 PM

It would be a toss up between one and three for me, because I don't think St Louis would offer that trade. If you put Woods in the Joeckel draft I would probably choose three because in my opinion OT and WR are our biggest needs despite Lotulelei being a slightly better prospect then Joeckel....

#10 TMS3426

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Posted 29 November 2012 - 07:57 PM

Would Lewan be an option in the first round if we end up around 8-10 and Joeckel is gone? I haven't seen him play.

#11 carolina-chuck

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Posted 29 November 2012 - 08:24 PM

Two mid round 1sts and a 3rd is quite cheap for a top 3 or 4 overall pick. No way we'd only get a 2nd out of it. Look at what the Redskins gave up to move up fewer spots. Of course we wouldn't get quite that deal because it's not for a QB, and maybe the Rams don't want to move up to get Joeckel, but no way we trade down into the mid teens from top 4 and only get a 2nd.


Rams are going to end up drafting near us. Not even close to being a mid round. Rams has the chance to end up with multiple young talents. No way their dumb enough to trade two 1st to move up for a Joeckel when they could stay where they are and take a Lewan, Matthews or Fisher.

#12 JawnyBlaze

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Posted 29 November 2012 - 08:37 PM

If the Rams end up drafting within 4 or 5 spots of us, then yea I don't see any sort of trade happening. In that case, if we're in the top 3 (as in scenario 2) I'd hope for a trade down with someone in the top 10 (Cards maybe to take a QB or Joeckel) and get their 1st and 2nd this year and next year's 1st.

#13 carolina-chuck

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Posted 29 November 2012 - 08:49 PM

If the Rams end up drafting within 4 or 5 spots of us, then yea I don't see any sort of trade happening. In that case, if we're in the top 3 (as in scenario 2) I'd hope for a trade down with someone in the top 10 (Cards maybe to take a QB or Joeckel) and get their 1st and 2nd this year and next year's 1st.


No team is going to give up that much picks.
There's no RG3 in this class. An extra 2nd is really probably the best anyone could get. I can't see anyone giving up a 2nd and a future 1st for anyone.

#14 JawnyBlaze

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Posted 30 November 2012 - 03:44 AM

Bump for added Scenario 5.

#15 JawnyBlaze

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Posted 30 November 2012 - 05:46 PM

And you can't really believe Rogers will be there in the 4th.


If Alphonso Dennard can fall to the 7th for his off-field issues, it's not entirely unlikely Rogers can fall to the 4th.


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